December DVC Sales Tumble

[DonMacGregor]

No reason to worry. The Skyliner is a Doppelmayr/CWA gondola system (looks like a variant of the Omega IV). This system and its precursors are in use all over the world (mostly skiing areas). They survive a lot harsher conditions than a little bit of wind.

Yes, the swaying might feel a bit uncomfortable. But the gondolas don't fall down (unless they are hit by a tree or something similar).

It’s more a matter of Disney’s ops procedures for the Skyliner. Disney has internal operating limits on wind speed and lightning proximity that you likely wouldn’t see on a cable system in the Alps.

 

[walt34]

It’s more a matter of Disney’s ops procedures for the Skyliner. Disney has internal operating limits on wind speed and lightning proximity that you likely wouldn’t see on a cable system in the Alps.

I basically grew up on Doppelmayr ski lifts. Lightning and skiing don't happen that frequently during the same seasons but in summer the lift operators do shut down lifts when there is lightning in the area. I assume it has more to do with the risk to the electrical systems and trying to avoid having to evacuate a full set of gondola if the electrical systems are damaged than with an actually risk to the people in the gondolas.

 

[Cfabar1]

My wife has told me she has no desire to ever go on the Skyliner because she would always worry about it breaking down and our family being stuck OR high wind/rain making it unable to operate and we are stuck with busses.

That’s just one opinion, but that’s also one less family that would ever consider RIV.

This... I have no interest in being stuck up there or unable to get back to my hotel.

 

[FreeTime]

Total creep on topic but all of this talk about getting stuck on gondolas….be sure to check out the article on the woman stuck in the Heavenly one overnight. I would have been steaming mad while freezing! I imagine Disney has better protocols in place before closing it down for the night.

 

[lowlight]

The skyliner is one of the highlights of our trips, especially for my children. I can see the negatives of it for some people, though.

 

[walt34]

Total creep on topic but all of this talk about getting stuck on gondolas….be sure to check out the article on the woman stuck in the Heavenly one overnight. I would have been steaming mad while freezing! I imagine Disney has better protocols in place before closing it down for the night.

This is such a rare event on ski lifts that it gets reported all over the world when it happens. Disney has even added an emergency call button for that extra bit of security.

 

[Bearval]

I actually think BLT won’t hold up as well to RIV but only because of what you said about over-saturation of the area, it is the least thematically interesting of the bunch and the one with the shortest expiration (in the MK area). I know some people really love it and maybe they do a stellar refurb that gives it some new life but in its current state, I’d choose any of the other 3 MK resorts and most others if I’m totally honest, before BLT.

You have to take into consideration that resale BLT allows you access to the legacy resorts ( although some of them expire in 2042, 2054, 2057 etc.) while RIV resale is just RIV. I think BLT will hold up much better than RIV as a whole.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I basically grew up on Doppelmayr ski lifts. Lightning and skiing don't happen that frequently during the same seasons but in summer the lift operators do shut down lifts when there is lightning in the area. I assume it has more to do with the risk to the electrical systems and trying to avoid having to evacuate a full set of gondola if the electrical systems are damaged than with an actually risk to the people in the gondolas.

And that’s why so many people don’t want to ride the Skyliner. It’s not a concern over the system breaking down, it’s the frequency with which Disney determines that winds are above their threshold (regardless of how safe it might still be or how far within Dopplemeyr’s operational specs), coupled with the frequency of lightning holds.

Disneys low wind threshold and the real frequency of lightning holds makes for a few too many operational pauses for a lot of people.

 

[walt34]

And that’s why so many people don’t want to ride the Skyliner. It’s not a concern over the system breaking down, it’s the frequency with which Disney determines that winds are above their threshold (regardless of how safe it might still be or how far within Dopplemeyr’s operational specs), coupled with the frequency of lightning holds.

Disneys low wind threshold and the real frequency of lightning holds makes for a few too many operational pauses for a lot of people.

Exactly this. I like the Skyliner very much - when it is running. Looking anxiously at every cloud while I'm in the parks worrying that Disney might shut down the connection to my hotel is something I could do without.

 

[AstroBlasters]

You have to take into consideration that resale BLT allows you access to the legacy resorts ( although some of them expire in 2042, 2054, 2057 etc.) while RIV resale is just RIV. I think BLT will hold up much better than RIV as a whole.

If they get a theming refresh right on BLT….. it will always have the room size/number of bathrooms, location with walking distance access to a park, low dues, and access to other resorts with resale…. easy value buy IMO….

 

[kboo]

So are restrictions an absolute no for you, no matter what or where? I just feel like it’s a thing going forward with DVC and right now it’s easy to dismiss RIV or VDH or CFW but what if the tower is restricted? Or even if it’s not, it’s almost guaranteed that future projects will be restricted (let’s be honest, if they did it to CFW, they’ll do it everywhere). Will you be ok with never having access to them? Or if you have some direct legacy points, get whatever is left over at 7mo?

I think as the mix of DVC owners pre/post restrictions (2019) changes, more and more people are not going to care, and there will be a slow shift to everyone being used to it. So many people (including us) who bought resale, even before 2019, were thinking "buy where you want to stay," *and* there are a lot of SSR and OKW lovers out there who are quite happy with the renovations. I don't think it was an accident that they started the murphy beds there.

The first few years we were always using our points at our home resorts and booking right at 11 months even if we didn't have to, because it was exciting and fun!! It's only recently that we've started sleeping around, and even so, we are still probably at our home resorts 50-75% of the time. This summer we are choosing to stay at un-refurbed BLT, which is (right now) the most run down of our home resorts. We haven't stayed at BLT in a couple years since we've used those points for AKV, BCV, BWV, AUL, so we're overdue for a reunion.

I think these restricted resorts will ultimately have resale prices substantially lower than the unrestricted ones that expire in the 2050s and 2060s.

I don't know how long you have owned, but part of the reason we bought BLT resale in 2017 was because it was by far the lowest priced DVC in the MK area. There were virtually no PVB resale contracts, CCV wasn't on sale yet, there was no walking path from VGF, VGF direct was on a waiting list and maybe harder to get resale than VGC, and BLT resale was significantly undervalued in all of this. If you had a double stroller and the MK-focused kids that go with that, and you wanted to just dip your toe into DVC, BLT was a bit of a sleeper - attention was on every single other MK resort. Around 2018-2019 BLT resale prices caught up, though.

I think a lot will depend on what's for sale direct. Remember, too, that the less-restricted ones expiring in 2050s, 2060s, will be talked about in 2040 like how we are talking about BWV and BCV now: maybe selling at higher than you'd expect for a resort with 20 years left, but everyone who's buying resale there would be paying the premium to stay there. Will that be offset by, say, "You can only stay at Riviera but it's got 30 more years instead of 15"? Riviera may not have an absolute price per point that is 2x that of BLT, but it will be more.

Yes, this is part of the point I wanted to make, you guys say it perfectly. If you were lucky enough to have bought into DVC before 2019 or have direct points that you got at a great price, than you got to be part of something amazing. (As an aside, being a millennial really sucks sometimes, we’re always the last to things and miss the good times- old enough to have witnessed the golden days, too young and poor to do anything about it haha)

I think FOMO hits you no matter what/where. I still wonder if we should have gotten SSR instead of BLT for our first resale contract. If our first resale contract had been BWV (that was the other one we were planning on), we probably wouldn't have gotten RIV when it went on sale, but I probably also would have been annoyed at the 2br layout and the tiny kitchens. We maybe would have saved about $2000-3000 if we'd bought BWV instead of BLT back then, and I don't think that was worth the shorter lifespan.

2054: SSR
2057: AKL(J/K), OKW
2060: VGC, edit: *forgot BLT* :X
2062: AUL
2064: VGF
2066: PVB
2068: CCV

2070++: RIV, CFW, VDH ...
I wonder if resale owners at the bolded resorts will feel any FOMO not getting access to Riviera and CFW ... I think it will be really interesting if they turn over BCV and BWV in 2042 with new point charts. That might send people over the edge by 2040.

Certainly. I ended up buying RIV in 2020 despite saying I didn't want a resort that would have resale restrictions, for 2 reasons: wanting an Epcot area resort (that went beyond 2042) and incentives (during that summer fire sale, I could bundle my RIV purchase with my CCV guaranteed weeks and bump into a new incentive category, lowering the per point cost for all of the contracts I was buying.

Which goes back to the ultimate motivator: price. ;-)

We got a great deal on Riviera points in 2019, pre-opening, when we were considering adding on to BLT resale. DEFINITELY did a price comparison between BLT resale (with the O14 restriction) and and RIV new, and yes we paid more than we would have for a BLT resale contract, but not *that* much more, with all of the pluses you describe above, plus instant gratification, plus SO many fastpasses we didn't wait in a line for the whole rest of our trip. (IT issues, so they just kept giving us more)

Since we already owned VGF and RIV this summer, there was a strong incentive to get RIV which came out to a little less because of the later expiration date. Ultimately we wanted to be able to spend Christmas at VGF which is kind of ridiculous points, so we decided to add more points there. But seeing the booking frenzy that is December at VGF in all room categories - this year worse than all years past- I am wondering if we made the right decision. I think we did, but it was still WAY easier to get what we wanted at RIV for New Years.

We do love the Skyliner, but if Disney had put in a cabal with a boat option,

I know this was just a typo, but I am pretty sure it was the Disney cabal that came up with the resale restrictions in the first place!

 

[kboo]

If they get a theming refresh right on BLT….. it will always have the room size/number of bathrooms, location with walking distance access to a park, low dues, and access to other resorts with resale…. easy value buy IMO….

^^ I cannot emphasize this too much! One can hope that they look at the raves for VDH and do something similarly mid-century vibe rather than mass market-vibe.

*almost* has me thinking we should add on to BLT now while we have the chance.... although saving $30ish per point between BLT resale and VGF/RIV direct with a longer end date doesn't really sway me right now since we would only "need" 50-100 more points at this point. Might just be less costly to use the unrestricted points we have that we've already paid for.

 

[Lorana]

I know this was just a typo, but I am pretty sure it was the Disney cabal that came up with the resale restrictions in the first place!

Ha ha ha, yeah that was a typo. I meant canal. But I *love* water transportation as an option, and choose it whenever I possibly can.

 

[DanCali]

I think a lot will depend on what's for sale direct. Remember, too, that the less-restricted ones expiring in 2050s, 2060s, will be talked about in 2040 like how we are talking about BWV and BCV now: maybe selling at higher than you'd expect for a resort with 20 years left, but everyone who's buying resale there would be paying the premium to stay there. Will that be offset by, say, "You can only stay at Riviera but it's got 30 more years instead of 15"? Riviera may not have an absolute price per point that is 2x that of BLT, but it will be more.

The way I see it, from the perspective of a simple resale buyer looking to buy 150-300 points, the number 1 factor will be price and the number 2 factor will be flexibility. The ability/flexibility to easily trade into 7-8 other resorts would be very appealing. If you offer that person BLT or Riviera at the same price, I suspect a vast majority would pick BLT. So in equilibrium, Riviera should end up with a much lower resale value. Having an extra 10 years of inflexibility would not move the needle much.

And I say this as a big fan of RR - I love the resort, the theming, and the location with the skyliner giving easy access to our 2 favorite parks. But the resale product is a shadow if its old self as a direct product. Those who already own there may buy some more resale. Those who already have 500+ or 1000+ points may buy some resale to guarantee standard rooms. But it would be very unappealing to the first- or second-time buyers, unless the price made it attractive enough.

I've seen a very similar scenario play out with Westin timeshares. The first handful of resorts allowed resale to trade internally with points, while later resorts are unable to do that. Initial resale sales of the latter type of resorts did not reflect the lack of flexibility in usage - the inventory was limited and the buyers were the biggest fans of the resort. But over the years, a large disparity developed. To see what I mean, you can look on Redweek at resale prices of the Westin Kaanapali Villas on Maui (can trade internally with points) vs the Westin Princeville Villas on Kauai (cannot trade internally with points). There are inherent differences between the resorts, but the most major difference is how they can be used.

 

[Lorana]

2070++: RIV, CFW, VDH ...
I wonder if resale owners at the bolded resorts will feel any FOMO not getting access to Riviera and CFW ... I think it will be really interesting if they turn over BCV and BWV in 2042 with new point charts. That might send people over the edge by 2040.

I am already wishing I had bought most of my AKV points direct rather than resale (so that we can use them elsewhere, and because with our oldest heading off to college in Fall 2025, we are far more interested in Member Cruises and the like, which does require using some direct points for it!), which is why I'm kicking myself for having not paid attention to incentives last year and missing the great AKV Direct incentives last summer.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

You have to take into consideration that resale BLT allows you access to the legacy resorts ( although some of them expire in 2042, 2054, 2057 etc.) while RIV resale is just RIV. I think BLT will hold up much better than RIV as a whole.

If they get a theming refresh right on BLT….. it will always have the room size/number of bathrooms, location with walking distance access to a park, low dues, and access to other resorts with resale…. easy value buy IMO….

^^ I cannot emphasize this too much! One can hope that they look at the raves for VDH and do something similarly mid-century vibe rather than mass market-vibe.

*almost* has me thinking we should add on to BLT now while we have the chance.... although saving $30ish per point between BLT resale and VGF/RIV direct with a longer end date doesn't really sway me right now since we would only "need" 50-100 more points at this point. Might just be less costly to use the unrestricted points we have that we've already paid for.

Alright alright I’m big enough to admit I’m definitely wearing rose-tinted glasses when it comes to RIV and mudd-colored glasses when it comes to BLT, you’re all probably mostly correct in your assessments but @kboo did make an excellent point with this…

Remember, too, that the less-restricted ones expiring in 2050s, 2060s, will be talked about in 2040 like how we are talking about BWV and BCV now: maybe selling at higher than you'd expect for a resort with 20 years left, but everyone who's buying resale there would be paying the premium to stay there. Will that be offset by, say, "You can only stay at Riviera but it's got 30 more years instead of 15"? Riviera may not have an absolute price per point that is 2x that of BLT, but it will be more.

But I do see the overall appeal of BLT. I just really dislike the theming and unless I’m staying in TPV I can get better feels at VGF or PVB and enjoy my boat ride over to MK. I’m gonna need them to work some magic this next refurb. I’d also love to see a more mid-century theme like you mentioned.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I am already wishing I had bought most of my AKV points direct rather than resale (so that we can use them elsewhere, and because with our oldest heading off to college in Fall 2025, we are far more interested in Member Cruises and the like, which does require using some direct points for it!), which is why I'm kicking myself for having not paid attention to incentives last year and missing the great AKV Direct incentives last summer.

I’m feeling that way about VGF at the moment, but I console myself with the knowledge that the funds just weren’t there at the time and that I didn’t know how the bonuses were going to shake out for the year.

We make the best decisions we can with the information available at the time.

 

[tjkraz]

But were Riviera resale listings in 2022 routinely being priced in the $120s and even $110s? And what were the resale prices of Riviera in 2019 and 2020? It's was a new resort and new restrictions. It takes years to start to see the damage the restrictions actually cause. It was different in 2019 and 2020 when the damage of the resale restrictions cannot yet be observed versus now that it's starting to materialize

I don't disagree that to some buyers, price (or price + dues) is the top consideration. To me, when it comes to a direct purchase, it's more about the delta between resale and direct. Because of that, it'd be much easier for me to justify buying Poly2 direct in the $190s (assuming same association, no restrictions) vs. Riviera in the $170s.

On a daily basis, people make DVC purchases which are not the #1 most sensible from a dollars-and-cents standpoint. That’s true of both direct and resale. Like buying Beach Club or BoardWalk with only 18-19 years left when there are options with more than twice as much time (value) remaining.

Far and away, most direct buyers are uninformed. They’re hearing the pitch and either liking or disliking what they see of Riviera. There IS some value in being able to say “the only way you can use your points for all DVC resorts is to buy direct from me.” If you think there are a lot of potential direct buyers specifically avoiding Riviera because they see what resale prices are, I’ll just agree to disagree.

Anecdotally, last summer’s grand floridian incentives were good enough to turn more informed consumers into direct buyers. I suspect the same thing would quickly happen with Riviera and other resorts if similar prices were offered.

 

[wilkydelts]

On a daily basis, people make DVC purchases which are not the #1 most sensible from a dollars-and-cents standpoint. That’s true of both direct and resale. Like buying Beach Club or BoardWalk with only 18-19 years left when there are options with more than twice as much time (value) remaining.

This is quite offensive. Who are you to judge.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Yes, you can basically assign a dollar-amount value to the contracts. But there's also other reasons to buy contracts besides the financial value. I'd have no trouble spending money on a deed that expires in 2042 if it's a resort I love and want to stay at. But not everyone is going to feel the same way.