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[i<3riviera]

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[sethschroeder]

Perhaps not a complete wash but close enough it won't be as catastrophic as some anticipate.

Except the thing is points coming in at 7 months don't matter at all in the equation. The equation is about people being locked in to the resort and it being hard to book at 11 months (which is the worry).

I don't think anyone cares if the resort is impossible to book at 7 months (I mean some will but it has no impact on the home resort owners).

Yes both to 2042 and also to see if (starting with DL Tower) the "can only use RIV resale at RIV" changes to "can only use at any resort built/rebuilt RIV and later".

You are misunderstanding what I am outlining. I am saying in 2042 there will be a good portion of RIV owners who sell their contracts to get BCV/BWV instead. I would suspect by then RIV resale will easily be "the same price" as direct is now. At that time BCV/BWV will likely get a healthy point requirement bump making RIV the cheaper alternative and possibly causing issues at that point.

I wouldn't be worried for the first 20 years though.

If buying resale at RIV would allow access to future resorts I feel like that would have been leaked/outlined already. Seems like everything points to it being locked to that specific resort for future resorts. Also not really a reason to do that system because in 20 years we will be back right to where we were in 2018.

 

[Cony]

That has more to do with preferred being overpriced I would suspect.



I mean SSR is okay I guess but there are other contracts on resale that have longer contracts. You also need to account for the fact that your MFs will be higher and you require more points if you plan on staying at RIV.

Flip side if you were to do something like a CCV, BLT, AKV you are getting longer contracts, can get by with possibly less points, but also save money every single year on MFs.



I mean we are 16 months in and over time more and more resale will hit the market. Also most people are not flipping contracts they bought direct for a profit. Instead they are selling specifically for a reason of getting out of DVC or to move to a different resort. As we approach and pass 2042 it will be interesting how RIV fairs as people want to jump to the new BCV/BWV resorts or possibly in another 10 years if a YCV becomes a thing.

In the end with RIV having such a high point chart I go back and forth that in 10-15 years that people will not just pass over the older RIV resort in favor of trying to get in to BCV (for the pool) or BWV (for the theme/point chart).

If I bought RIV I would just make sure I had a fixed week for a standard studio even if I never used it as we mostly do 1/2br. Its a fall back and helps protect resale value.

I really wanted to like CCV but not my taste. I didn’t want to buy the GW there if I wasn’t going to enjoy my stay there. My plan is to add on from resale later for other trips throughout the year but have that one week during the long weekend where I can be at Disney for food and wine.

 

[Akck]

You are misunderstanding what I am outlining. I am saying in 2042 there will be a good portion of RIV owners who sell their contracts to get BCV/BWV instead. I would suspect by then RIV resale will easily be "the same price" as direct is now. At that time BCV/BWV will likely get a healthy point requirement bump making RIV the cheaper alternative and possibly causing issues at that point.

I wouldn't be worried for the first 20 years though.
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One thing I would assume is that any future 2042+ resort will have a point structure similar to or even greater than RIV, in addition to the same or even more restrictions. I don’t think RIV owners will be flocking to BCV/BWV when they’ll likely be in a better position.

 

[sethschroeder]

One thing I would assume is that any future 2042+ resort will have a point structure similar to or even greater than RIV, in addition to the same or even more restrictions. I don’t think RIV owners will be flocking to BCV/BWV when they’ll likely be in a better position.

When BWV/BCV flip to new contracts and get a large overhaul likely it will be night and day compared to RIV.

There is no substitute for the location as an example.

RIV will have some fans though not saying different.

 

[CastAStone]

I didn’t do a breakout by resort or really any work beyond a quick check but I ran last weeks filings with OC and they were ballpark of pre-COVID normal, with 211 contracts.

If they keep up this pace, don’t expect better incentives next month

 

[sethschroeder]

112 RIV contracts out of 324 for the month so far.
52 OKW
49 CCV
37 SSR
25 AKV
15 BLT
8 POLY

During this same period in 2019 it was a total of 867 (424 RIV) contracts between the 1st and 17th of August so we are only roughly at 37% of last years sales right now for total contracts (didn't look at points).

Seems like Disney could get a tad more aggressive with sold out incentives to possibly capture some of the lower cost resale contracts that they might have to otherwise pass on because direct demand is not as high. Not counting on it though.

 

[i<3riviera]

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[LTJoeFlo]

112 RIV contracts out of 324 for the month so far.
52 OKW
49 CCV
37 SSR
25 AKV
15 BLT
8 POLY

During this same period in 2019 it was a total of 867 (424 RIV) contracts between the 1st and 17th of August so we are only roughly at 37% of last years sales right now for total contracts (didn't look at points).

Seems like Disney could get a tad more aggressive with sold out incentives to possibly capture some of the lower cost resale contracts that they might have to otherwise pass on because direct demand is not as high. Not counting on it though.

I understand your logic, and I hope you are right, but I don't think we will see an increase in incentives. Based on what @i<3riviera has shared, people are purchasing larger contracts at CCV rather than RIV (of results not sold out). And, over half of the contracts sold are for resorts that DVC isn't actively advertising. Riviera just isn't that popular of a sell. I am not sure if lowering the price any more will allow it to sell better. Based on what I have read in other threads, most people won't purchase until it goes below the $100pp mark. That's not gonna happen. DVC won't have any other new WDW resorts to sell for a while. They can play the long game with this one. In a year from now, 2 resorts will have resale restrictions and that might also help with sales.

Another thing that might play into the decision is the likelihood of another stimulus check. The purpose of that check was to help those in need or to be immediately spent by those who didn't "need" it. There were also talks of tax incentives for those choosing to vacation in the US.

If they did anything, I think they could offer free annual passes (unlikely) or lower finance interest rates (unlikely). Either way, my deposit is ready for Sept 15. Hoping for more discounts!

 

[sethschroeder]

I am not sure if lowering the price any more will allow it to sell better.

Oh I don't think they lower at RIV at all. I am talking about sold out resorts.

DVC won't have any other new WDW resorts to sell for a while.

Which I think is why we might see a slight bump or keeping the sold out resort discounts the same. Where they see possibly more contracts coming through from resale that they feel they can start snagging from ROFR to sell on the direct side.

They actively right now are putting all resorts in front of people both at WDW (tours at all resorts), online (go to the pricing tool and you see a list of every resorts pricing), and on phones (they make a short pitch on RIV but basically flip to any resort you say you are interested in which is very different from last year).

In the end I just don't see the numbers pointing to worse discounts simply because they needed this level of discount to get 35% of their typical volume and one could say its worse than 30% because Disney likely expected substantial growth as well in 2020.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

I wonder how many of the initial direct contracts happening lately are due to people being moved from closed cash resorts to DVC resorts.

 

[i<3riviera]

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[Prince John Robin Hood]

it's still early but sales of RVA appear to be trending towards pre-COVID-19 levels ...

I'm surprised. It will be interesting if they are able to maintain the momentum or if sales drop off.

 

[sethschroeder]

I'm surprised. It will be interesting if they are able to maintain the momentum or if sales drop off.

One of the major issues when I have looked it up is that recording date is very much different than sold date. You can see on the chart historically 1/2 the weeks are basically zero.

Come Sept 1 and looking at sales in relation to the March red line is going to be telling of what is going on.

This is really pointing to I think how well DVC came out of the gate when they reopened. The next 2-4 weeks will be how well they sustained after that initial onslaught of buyers who were waiting on the deals/reopening.

This might be very very bad for any future hope of better benefits. If they truly are selling this well without AP and without Moonlight there is not really an incentive to bring them back anytime soon or at all.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

I think the current sales are current incentive driven with buyers still anticipating some of the usual benefits to return. I'm sure they are still touting them as perks.

 

[LTJoeFlo]

I think the current sales are current incentive driven with buyers still anticipating some of the usual benefits to return. I'm sure they are still touting them as perks.

Completely agree. We are looking at $160pp for our planned Riviera purchase. That is less than what we paid for CCV last year and very close to what we paid for VGF in 2013. The only perk that I would like to see is the return of the annual pass discount prior to October 2021.

However, what @sethschroeder said makes sense. The incentives might have been a nice shock to improve sales but the long term impact may not be known yet. I'm hoping to see something creative in the next round of incentives. New swag, Free TiW, AP credit.....Anything!!! I don't need/want another backpack.

 

[i<3riviera]

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[CastAStone]

One of the major issues when I have looked it up is that recording date is very much different than sold date. You can see on the chart historically 1/2 the weeks are basically zero.

Come Sept 1 and looking at sales in relation to the March red line is going to be telling of what is going on.

This is really pointing to I think how well DVC came out of the gate when they reopened. The next 2-4 weeks will be how well they sustained after that initial onslaught of buyers who were waiting on the deals/reopening.

This might be very very bad for any future hope of better benefits. If they truly are selling this well without AP and without Moonlight there is not really an incentive to bring them back anytime soon or at all.

I think the point holds though that last week was a pretty darn good week for direct sales recording. It was even stronger for CCV (vs the months since the price went to $220) and the sold out resorts than it was for Riviera on a relative basis. It remains to be seen if that was pent up demand as suggested or what. I think it's entirely possible that the resale phenomenon where people are using their unspend vacation funds to buy into DVC could be true direct as well.

 

[sethschroeder]

It was even stronger for CCV (vs the months since the price went to $220)

I think this even more so points to what I was saying about it being the initial wave of purchases out of shutdown with the new discounts. Like I said I will be interested when we get a longer runway where we see what the full month of July/first week of August sales looked like.

I would expect another spike though in September which will show up then in October for purchases based on the 100 to 125 point increase.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Do they have kiosks for DVC in the parks again with agents or no? That certainly will have an impact one way or the other as well. Then of course less people going to the parks so there's that. It's just going to be a very apples to oranges situation for a while. I like what @CastAStone had to say about people using unused/cancelled vacation money toward buying in - could totally see some of that happening especially with the incentives.