It all comes to the same end though right? whether it's 6 months or 3 months. If everyone is on the same footing (not like FP+) then the mad rush is the same.
I don't know that anything would change other than the time of the rush.....but it would still be a "mad rush".
Math is your friend, people.
Of course the "rush" has to change if you alter the date on which you can make ADRs. On the day that you are in the park, 100% of the people who are in the park that day know that they are going to be in the park that day. The day before you go to a park, probably 97% of the people who will be in the park that day know that they will be in the park that day. (The other 3% are probably locals who might decide to make a last minute trip to the park, or visiting guests who hadn't decided what park to visit on the following day.) So if ADRs were eliminated, or allowed to be made on the "day of your visit", 100% of the people in the park would be fighting for the available slots. If ADRs were allowed to be made one day ahead of your visit, then 97% of the people who will be in the park will be fighting over the available slots, with the other 3% not in the running, because they haven't even solidified their plans yet.
And the percentages keep going down with every day. So 30 days in advance of the day that you will be in the park, perhaps 75% of the people who will be in the park that day know what their plans will be, and will be fighting for the available slots. And 60 days in advance, maybe that percentage drops to 60%. And at 120 days, maybe that drops to 40%. And at 180 days, maybe that percentage drops to 25%. But one thing is certain--the percentage
has to drop. Not everyone who goes to WDW is an uber-planner who locks in their plans 180 days in advance. Indeed, we nut jobs on this board are a discrete minority. There is no question that the "mad rush" at the 180 day mark is a "rush" that has far fewer participants in the race than you would have if ADRs were made available at the 60 day mark. And at the 30 day mark, the race would have even more contestants. And at the 7 day mark, even more contestants.
So no, it would not be the same no matter what day you chose. It would be very, very different. Right now, if you log on at the earliest possible time on your 180+10 date, you can pretty much get anything and everything you want. If everyone logged on at 6:00 a.m. on the morning of their visit to get ADRs, you would face daunting "lottery odds" of getting what you want due to the extreme traffic being handled by the website.
My understanding is that you wouldn't be able to go at rope drop and make a reservation for later that day, you'd show up at the restaurant when you're ready to eat - just like a regular restaurant.
I think that might be kind of cool!
You'd show up when you are
ready to eat, and then get seated 90-120 minutes
later. "Regular" restaurants do not have 5,000 people walking up at 6:00 p.m. On a typical day, the MK might have 40,000 people in it. If even one-quarter of those people want to have a TS meal for dinner, then you would have 10,000 people trying to get tables at 6 TS restaurants. (I am not counting the Plaza because it is so small). That is nothing at all like a "regular restaurant". If the restaurant opens for dinner at 5:00, all of its tables will be filled by 5:10. And all of those diners will occupy their tables for, on average, 60-70 minutes. So anyone who is "ready to eat" at 5:15 will have to wait, at a minimum, until 6:00-6:15. So all of the people who arrive between 5:11 and 5:30 will make up the next "wave of diners who will occupy the tables from 6:15-7:15 or so. Which means that anyone who arrives at 5:31 is now looking at a two hour wait for the first wave of diners to finish, followed by the second wave of diners to be seated, order, eat and leave, and then they will be seated as part of the third wave. All of this suggests that the winning strategy would be to part of the first wave which entails being at the front of the line when the restaurant opens. And once people figure that out, then the strategy will be to arrive 20 minutes before that. And that will evolve into arriving 40 minutes before that. And soon you will not be arriving at the restaurant when you are "ready to eat" and instead will be arriving at 4:15. Remember when BoG opened for lunch and the line to get in formed at RD?
That is what a world without ADRs would look like.