People are paying almost 50% over Riviera resale today for BWV or BCV. Tell me why you think that will be less likely in 2035? I think we on this forum think contract expiration is a big deal, but a lot of buyers clearly don’t. And Disney will prop-up the value towards the end of the contract anyways.
The average price for RIV has been in the $130's to $140s. There have been a few outliers, but the bulk have been in that range...granted their have not been too many and there is no ROFR. So people are not paying 50% more for BWV/BCV, then RIV...
But, there is certainly a big difference that people might not care about expiration when there is at least 20 years left, vs. their being one when there is 5. Also, the incentives at RIV right now make going direct for that resort a better option, so the demand for resale may simply not be there yet given that direct gives you so much more.
When RIV is sold out and DVD is charging $245 for it like they are for BCV, then you may see the numbers closer.
Do you really believe that If people were getting BCV direct from Disney at RIV's prices, people would be paying what they are on the resale market for it? Look at what happened to VGF resale when DVD came out with a $207 base price, down from $255 sold out price...contracts went down and are still down from a year ago. A year ago, people were paying in the $180s...now paying in the $160's, to $170's...no guarantee things go up if DVD changes up tactics.
I will be shocked to see Disney continue to prop up the value of the 2042 resorts once there is less than 10 years left resorts because they have no reason to worry about resale price. They get that building back for free come 2042...what reason would they have to spend money to buy back points at a place that will no longer exist?
Of course, the biggest factor for buyers is and has always been choosing a resort they want, and if there isn't one particular, choosing one that they will be content with, expiration or not.
BCV has always been popular due to its location and why people pay more for it than BWV, BRV, and OKW on the resale market even with the same expiration. But, if DVD continues with the resale restrictions, and by 2035, there are 5 or 6 resorts not available to resale buyers, the whole market could look different and the entire aspect of an appreciating resale value may indeed slow down or go away. That is why some owners who have been around for a long time take issue with the restrictions because it will depress the market.