Asia Disney Parks closed due to Coronavirus (SHDL, HKDL, TDL)

[Jax1023]

I hope you are correct, but unfortunately, deaths may be underreported as well. Since there's a shortage of test kits, and transportation to the hospitals, and hospital beds, people may be dying undiagnosed, even unhospitalized. It appears that these aren't counted as coronavirus fatalities.

Truly, we just don't know. As cases mount outside of China, we'll get a much better picture of the disease. Maybe in a week or two the picture will be much clearer.

It also seems like in the case in Washington and one is Thailand there have been some good results with already existing antivirals. One for HIV in Thailand and an experimental one in Washington. Apparently both pts showed significant improvement in 25-48 hours.

I have a wdw trip planned at the end of this month and a 2 year old with asthma. At this point I’m far more worried about the flu than Coronavirus because right now, right here, it’s the actual concern.

hopefully these chinese quarantines work. The virus can burn its self out. But it seems like there are some options for treatment and prevention that may soon be available if it can be slowed for a while.

 

[QueenElinor]

hopefully these chinese quarantines work. The virus can burn its self out. But it seems like there are some options for treatment and prevention that may soon be available if it can be slowed for a while.

Well, that all depends on one's definition of a quarantine actually "working". I think your comment here that even if the quarantine only slows things down it still has great benefit, is a very good point. The other thing that does is allow authorities & facilities to prepare, and it spreads the cases out over a longer period of time, which is actually good as then hospitals won't be overwhelmed, which is clearly happening in China.

 

[jknezek]

But experts are saying there are probably more like 75,000, possibly as much as 150,000 cases in China. They just have been confirmed since they have such limited testing.

if there actually are 75,000 cases and 314 deaths currently, the mortality rate is more like 0.4%, putting it in the range of the swine flu pandemic from 2009. Which is FYI is now the most common circulating flu at this point in the season.

if there really are 150,000 + cases, it drops even further.

while this is obviously a concerning virus, it’s not going to be the pandemic of movies that wipes out large portions of the worlds population.

If they don't know how many people have it... they don't have a clue how many people are dying from it. That's part of the problem with information from China in just about every respect. As someone who works in finance, every time they release economic data we just laugh. It's next to useless. I suspect these numbers are the same. China says what they want the rest of the world to see, and the rest of the world doesn't want to offend them by calling them on their b.s. because they are an important economy and growing military power.

So here we are. Stuck with an epidemic, with information no sane decision maker believes, and trying to make decisions based not on what China says, with their minimal reported numbers, but on what they are doing... shutting down and quarantining a major city and basically telling people throughout the country to stay inside as much as possible, calling of their major annual holiday, and shutting down public places not just in the epicenter of the epidemic, but throughout the country.

 

[Brianstl]

Do people really think China would as of today have the equivalent of the combined population of California and Texas under quarantine if Novel Coronavirus had a fatality rate anywhere close to the seasonal flu’s fatality rate?

 

[Dreams&wishes]

Do people really think China would as of today have the equivalent of the combined population of California and Texas under quarantine if Novel Coronavirus had a fatality rate anywhere close to the seasonal flu’s fatality rate?

Although a part of me agrees with you then I think, of all the cases outside China only 1 person died in the Philippines.. So that doesn't seem like a very high mortality rate.

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

Do people really think China would as of today have the equivalent of the combined population of California and Texas under quarantine if Novel Coronavirus had a fatality rate anywhere close to the seasonal flu’s fatality rate?

It’s not exactly a country fond of freedom so who knows. Maybe they are using the disease as a way to see just how much they can control. Hong Kong was revealing some cracks in their government control prior to this and maybe they’re taking advantage. They also reacted to SARS so poorly that they might be overreacting here.

It’s not a country that’s easy to guess what’s actually going on.

 

[QueenElinor]

Although a part of me agrees with you then I think, of all the cases outside China only 1 person died in the Philippines.. So that doesn't seem like a very high mortality rate.

There haven't been cases identified outside of China for long enough to say. Fatalities probably lag by at least a week. But with better, more transparent reporting and follow-up each case can be followed through time. That's probably the best way to determine the case/fatality ratio.

And even then, that might be a bit off because many people could have it and have only very mild symptoms, and are never tested so we never know the correct case count to begin with. We might only a reasonably accurate CFR after all of this blows over, which someday it will.

Do people really think China would as of today have the equivalent of the combined population of California and Texas under quarantine if Novel Coronavirus had a fatality rate anywhere close to the seasonal flu’s fatality rate?

I didn't want to say this, but since you all have, I guess I do think you're right. It's really remarkable, possibly unprecedented for a population that size, as is the travel ban implemented by the Administration. I think it's been 50 years since anything like that last happened.

 

[StarGirl11]

I am not worried about my holiday. It's a holiday. I AM worried about my husband. He travels all over UK (which now has cases), on public transport, including flights. He is still needing blood products due to incurable leukaemia, few people have less immunity.
Going on holiday is a luxury. If losing a luxury is the worst that happens, we've done well.

-sends virtual hug- I remember when my Mom was on the strong stuff for her lymphoma. This kind of stuff terrified me, not for my sake but hers. Hope he stays relatively well during his travels.

 

[StarGirl11]

Making this next part separate

On the topic of China and reporting. I’ve got nothing first hand but I do remember seeing someone I sometimes tweet with unrelated stuff saying they had colleagues in China who said their death toll was being underplayed by the government. Which knowing China is unfortunately not a shock. And if that’s the case (and I admit this is third hand information) then the mortality rate is probably higher then anyone realizes outside of a China..

Also let’s just keep in mind they are now rapidly putting up not one but two hospitals being erected in Wuhan to deal with this disease. I honestly don’t feel like we have remotely close to an idea of the actual situation in China or at the very least Wuhan. But maybe that’s just me.

 

[DrunkJam]

-sends virtual hug- I remember when my Mom was on the strong stuff for her lymphoma. This kind of stuff terrified me, not for my sake but hers. Hope he stays relatively well during his travels.

Thank you. His chemo failed last year, so he has some other meds and transfusions and IVIG and so on, and it's going OK for now, so fingers crossed. He says he'll know he's sick if he has to stop working!

 

[QueenElinor]

Also let’s just keep in mind they are now rapidly putting up not one but two hospitals being erected in Wuhan to deal with this disease.

That's public health theater, for sure. Since all the schools are closed, use the dorms- they even have beds. Use an empty building from their rampant over-building boom. There are dozens of other things that would be faster and cheaper, but, of course, none quite so dramatic. Meanwhile, doctors and nurses are complaining of not enough basic supplies.

 

[beckicnm]

It’s not exactly a country fond of freedom so who knows. Maybe they are using the disease as a way to see just how much they can control. Hong Kong was revealing some cracks in their government control prior to this and maybe they’re taking advantage. They also reacted to SARS so poorly that they might be overreacting here.

It’s not a country that’s easy to guess what’s actually going on.

I agree with this, based on the insights of family friends currently living in China.
The idea of the government being able to pull anything off like the Chinese are doing is just completely foreign to the typical American.

 

[QueenElinor]

I agree with this, based on the insights of family friends currently living in China.
The idea of the government being able to pull anything off like the Chinese are doing is just completely foreign to the typical American.

I'm not sure how much it accomplishes anyway. Most public health folks don't think mass quarantine helps, and may hurt in an epidemic like this. The only reason why our travel bans might help is that we are isolated across an ocean and air travel is involved, so it's easier to enforce.

Still, it may only delay & slow the spread of the virus- which are actually really important benefits when it comes right down to it. Having a thousand people in the ER over a month's time would be better than having them all there in one week, not to mention the stress on the floors & ICU.

 

[antlane]

I hate to think how scary it is over in China right now. Have coworkers based in Shenzhen and a friend in Hong Kong. All are scared of what’s to come.

Good for Disney closing the parks right now.

 

[afan]

Called to make an appt for my annual physical and the first thing she asked was if I'd been out of the country in the past 2 weeks. Granted I'm in the Seattle area but this wasn't a question 2 weeks ago when I first tried to make the appt.

 

[Searc]

I hope you are correct, but unfortunately, deaths may be underreported as well. Since there's a shortage of test kits, and transportation to the hospitals, and hospital beds, people may be dying undiagnosed, even unhospitalized. It appears that these aren't counted as coronavirus fatalities.

Truly, we just don't know. As cases mount outside of China, we'll get a much better picture of the disease. Maybe in a week or two the picture will be much clearer.

Has anyone died outside of China?

 

[Brianstl]

Has anyone died outside of China?

At least one person has died outside of China.

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

Has anyone died outside of China?

A patient died in the Philippines but he had caught the virus in Wuhan.

 

[Searc]

At least one person has died outside of China.

Who caught it in Wuhan, per the post above yours. If this was some pandemic-inducing virus, people would be dying around the world who had CoronaVirus.

 

[Brianstl]

Who caught it in Wuhan, per the post above yours. If this was some pandemic-inducing virus, people would be dying around the world who had CoronaVirus.

It is a epidemic virus in China at this moment. It has the potential to become a global pandemic. The goal is to stop it from becoming a global pandemic.

Being outside of China doesn't magically prevent you from getting the disease. A business man in Germany contracted to disease after a meeting in Stockdorf, Bavaria with a non-systematic coworker visiting from Shanghai. Four workers total in in Stockdorf now have tested positive for the virus.