CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Colleen27]

Didn’t we already go through this last year?
After the first initial “wave”, the thought was cases would stay low because of summer. Yet, cases peaked again in July.
This is all about how people behave, and not about seasons, is what I’m trying to get at.

But now we have a year's experience under our belt. And we know that there was a seasonality to those surges, where all else equal the northern states did better in the summer than the winter while the southern states have to be cautious during the peak of air conditioning season to avert a summer peak. It is all about how people behave... but how people behave is influenced to a great extent by weather, and it is just disingenuous to try to divorce the two.

 

[godisney14]

Sometimes it takes personal experience to accept reality.
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article250803704.html
Now, maybe personal experience will also mean he will believe in vaccines.
Hoping...

 

[Colleen27]

Sometimes it takes personal experience to accept reality.
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article250803704.html
Now, maybe personal experience will also mean he will believe in vaccines.
Hoping...

I'm actually really shocked that he went public about it. Given his general personality and reputation, I'd have expected him not to admit to being wrong quite so loudly. Maybe he'll change some minds by being so open about the experience; he's pretty popular with the same crowds that are opposed to the vaccine, at least here in Michigan, and his earlier comments about the virus got quite a lot of social media traction.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

You completely missed the point of my first statement. That those states that did everything they could to stop the virus, seem to have merely pushed the numbers further down the road.

I didn't miss the point. You in fact haven't proven it.
The fact is, Michigan isn't currently all that close to catching up. 87k does not equal 137k. And the one midwestern state they are close to catching also had restrictions and is not currently undergoing a surge. Further, given that Michigan's surge did not happen during restrictions, it is just as easy (and consistent with the facts) to say that lack of restrictions caused this latest surge though I would not conclude that yet. Still further, given that we have much better treatments now than we once did, and that we now have a vaccine that it is likely that they weren't just pushing the numbers further down the road. Lives were very likely saved.

And it's all too convenient an argument to make. When you see a piece of data you like, BEHOLD THE POWER OF GRAYSKULL. When you see one you don't, all too conveniently well yeah they haven't caught up yet, but they will. Not our first rodeo around here with that statement.

We went through this last year with Sweden. And so far the only thing that has been pushed down the road is the goal posts.

First it was look how great Sweden is. When they thought the numbers looked good it's BEHOLD THE POWER OF GRAYSKULL!!!! Then when it's pointed out the numbers don't look so good when Sweden was compared to her similar neighbors the whole tone changers to well uh bleh bleh bleh uh uh we can't be sure of that. Those other countries are just kicking the can down the road. Check back in 3 months.
3 months later. Well we need to check those numbers in half a year. Half a year later. It's going to take a year before we're sure. Well it's past the one year mark and the other Nordic countries still aren't even close to Sweden.
Sweden 88,687
Denmark 42,019
Norway 19,861.
Finland 15, 232

Over 2, 4, and 5 times the cases per million.

Deaths
Sweden 1,358
Denmark 424
Finland 161
Norway 130.
Over 3, ?, and 10 times the deaths per million.

It's a totally convenient argument. They never actually ever have to admit they've been wrong. And they get to keep making it until the day comes when they think they're right. Or if that day never comes and people remember, just move the goal posts, lather, rinse, repeat. And by the time anyone figures out well it looks like it isn't happening, people will forget they ever made the argument in the first place.

 

[Colleen27]

Random tangent: Is anyone else seeing the right margin ad that says "A Shot to Restore Our Freedoms"? That's exactly the right messaging around vaccination and it is funny to see it on this thread after how much we've talked about all the poor messaging from more official sources.

 

[JLTraveling]

I’d prefer to stick to actual metrics, rather than gut feel.

I agree with that. I'm just debating metrics over what area? We know our numbers down to the census tract. But that's obviously too small. Can't have a mask mandate in one neighborhood but not across the street. So then the question becomes, do you base it on city? What about places where one city spills into the next? Is metro area more appropriate? But there are plenty of regions where it's common to live in one metro area and work in another. Maybe it should be by state? But again, lots of border towns and small states where people live in one state and work in another. OK, so region maybe? But what about the places where Canada or Mexico is part of the region? See what I'm saying? I'm all for sticking to metrics. But they change wildly depending on how big of an area you're measuring, and if you don't take cross-area travel into account, then they become meaningless.

 

[godisney14]

I agree with that. I'm just debating metrics over what area? We know our numbers down to the census tract. But that's obviously too small. Can't have a mask mandate in one neighborhood but not across the street. So then the question becomes, do you base it on city? What about places where one city spills into the next? Is metro area more appropriate? But there are plenty of regions where it's common to live in one metro area and work in another. Maybe it should be by state? But again, lots of border towns and small states where people live in one state and work in another. OK, so region maybe? But what about the places where Canada or Mexico is part of the region? See what I'm saying? I'm all for sticking to metrics. But they change wildly depending on how big of an area you're measuring, and if you don't take cross-area travel into account, then they become meaningless.

Do you have an alternative solution based on metrics that you would like to propose?

 

[JLTraveling]

Do you have an alternative solution based on metrics that you would like to propose?

I don't claim to have a solution. That's why I offered it for debate. I like RamblingMad's metrics. But I think we're fooling ourselves to pretend that the virus doesn't cross city lines, so my vote is for AT LEAST statewide, and possibly national.

 

[DLgal]

When community spread stops, a R0 below one and a positivity rate below 5%.

5% positivity is still way too high. I think "they" want to see it below 1%. They being the epidemiologists and public health officials. They want to see 10,000 or less daily cases and under 100 daily deaths, nationwide.

I mean, our test positivity in CA, statewide, is 1.3%, our R0 is below 1 and community spread has all but stopped for the most part, but we still have a lot of restrictions and mask mandates have "no intention of being lifted anytime soon."

It seems vaccination numbers are what is most important in allowing people to go back to normal because those other metrics can change quickly, as we have seen.

 

[DLgal]

Sometimes it takes personal experience to accept reality.
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article250803704.html
Now, maybe personal experience will also mean he will believe in vaccines.
Hoping...

“I’ve never been so sick in all my life,” Nugent said. He went on to suggest there is no point in being tested for COVID-19 and downplayed the need for social distancing, mask wearing and being vaccinated against the virus.

I'm sorry, but this is the dumbest thing I've read all day.

Are people just completely INCAPABLE of saying the words "I was wrong?"

 

[Jmljasmine]

Bottom line is tell people fully vaccinated means no masks a bunch of those on the fence would run out and get them. Until that point they will continue to wait because nothing will change for them so they would rather not risk a new vaccine. Most people aren't true anti vaxxers.

But how do you then verify that the person not wearing a mask is vaccinated? I don't trust my fellow humans that much.

 

[jlwhitney]

But how do you then verify that the person not wearing a mask is vaccinated? I don't trust my fellow humans that much.

how much different is it trusting people to not go places sick or exposed? Or even suspecting exposure? Same thing .

I suspect it will happen once more areas hit the point of demand dropping. They will have to do something to incentivize people getting it.

 

[Colleen27]

Bottom line is tell people fully vaccinated means no masks a bunch of those on the fence would run out and get them. Until that point they will continue to wait because nothing will change for them so they would rather not risk a new vaccine. Most people aren't true anti vaxxers.

I'm not sure it would play out that way. Tell people that fully vaccinated means no masks and you'll likely get a ton of people who were against the vaccine yesterday telling people that they don't need to wear a mask today because they're fully vaccinated. They wouldn't have to change their actions, just their words, and I think a lot more would do that than would actually go out and get vaccinated over an approach that would take them at their word.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Bottom line is tell people fully vaccinated means no masks a bunch of those on the fence would run out and get them. Until that point they will continue to wait because nothing will change for them so they would rather not risk a new vaccine. Most people aren't true anti vaxxers.

You advocate really hard for these so-called fencers for someone who lives in an area without masks, which you often point out to us.

 

[Joe in VA]

But how do you then verify that the person not wearing a mask is vaccinated? I don't trust my fellow humans that much.

If you're vaccinated, it doesn't matter. The most important thing we can all do is get the vaccine.

 

[Jmljasmine]

how much different is it trusting people to not go places sick or exposed? Or even suspecting exposure? Same thing .

I suspect it will happen once more areas hit the point of demand dropping. They will have to do something to incentivize people getting it.

I don't trust them. I've had people tell me they are continuing to go out even after a positive result. That's where the masks at least help somewhat.

 

[Jmljasmine]

If you're vaccinated, it doesn't matter. The most important thing we can all do is get the vaccine.

But not everyone can yet. There are areas it's not that available. Some people haven't been cleared by their doctors. Hopefully having the vaccine decreases spread but there will for sure be people who refuse the vaccine then go out mask less anyway if vaccinated people don't have to mask. There are still too many people who don't yet have the choice to be vaccinated to be relying on people to care about anyone but themselves.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I don't trust them. I've had people tell me they are continuing to go out even after a positive result. That's where the masks at least help somewhat.

My mom (who's second dose was the 2nd of April) was telling me last week about her hair dresser who was 4 days post positive test result (no she hasn't had a vaccine and she's not really thinking she'll get one) and called to ask "do you still want to come in? I was like WTH!? If it were me I'd be finding a new hair dresser

 

[Jmljasmine]

My mom (who's second dose was the 2nd of April) was telling me last week about her hair dresser who was 4 days post positive test result (no she hasn't had a vaccine and she's not really thinking she'll get one) and called to ask "do you still want to come in? I was like WTH!? If it were me I'd be finding a new hair dresser

Sadly that is nothing new. That's why things have to be so strict for everyone because too many people are idiots. preCOVID I had a flu positive patient leave on a Disney cruise the day after her diagnosis even after I told her not to, that she would infect the ship and that I'd write the letter for her travel insurance. I didn't have any sympathy for her when she took longer to heal, got a secondary infection. Though I did have sympathy for the innocent people she certainly infected.

 

[RamblingMad]

5% positivity is still way too high. I think "they" want to see it below 1%. They being the epidemiologists and public health officials. They want to see 10,000 or less daily cases and under 100 daily deaths, nationwide.

I mean, our test positivity in CA, statewide, is 1.3%, our R0 is below 1 and community spread has all but stopped for the most part, but we still have a lot of restrictions and mask mandates have "no intention of being lifted anytime soon."

It seems vaccination numbers are what is most important in allowing people to go back to normal because those other metrics can change quickly, as we have seen.

Until kids get vaccinated, it's really hard mathematically to get to herd immunity. If it's not spreading actively in the community (R0 < 1), you should be able to lift restrictions. However, you have to be willing to add the restrictions back if you go the metrics. Hospital occupancy numbers also help.

I'm guessing the folks running the shop don't want to keep flipping back and forth. And I'm sure businesses want to take conservative measures because an outbreak at a business will require it to close.