Hurricane Isabel is a possible problem for us....

[HurricaneWarning]

WOW!! Look at the winds of Isabel...160 m.p.h.
When and where Isabel would make landfall (if she does) is next to impossible and with the slower movement (9mph) means she will be out there longer and making harder to tell where she'll go.

Be safe,
Mike W.

HurricaneWarning.net



FROM THE NHC:

ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY TODAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
3 AGENCIES...TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE NOW 7.0 AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS ARE ALSO ABOUT THE SAME VALUE. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KT...A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. HURRICANES RARELY MAINTAIN SUCH STRENGTH FOR VERY
LONG...AND ISABEL MAY NOT STAY A CAT 5 FOR EVEN AS LONG AS SHOWN
HERE. THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE BUT THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
NARROWING AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY OF ISABEL. ANOTHER POSSIBLE FACTOR IS
THE COOLED SST WAKE PRODUCED BY HURRICANE FABIAN IN THE VICINITY OF
63W. SINCE THERE DO NOT TO BE ANY MAJOR INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT...INTERNAL DYNAMICS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON INTENSITY CHANGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/8...ALONG WITH SOME MINOR TROCHOIDAL
WOBBLES. A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL IS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN THE GUNA CONSENSUS.
THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST U.K. MET OFFICE TRACK. THE
LATTER MODEL IS THE WESTERNMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN BEYOND THE 5-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO STATE WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE WHETHER A SPECIFIC AREA ALONG THE U.S. COAST WILL BE
IMPACTED BY ISABEL. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN
PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF STEERING FEATURES AT THESE LONG RANGES.

 

[jwfla422]

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that's going to happen. According to the discussion at the NOAA site, a ridge along the U.S. east coast will put a lid on Isabel, keeping it moving generally west (toward the Bahamas) for the next five days, but then it will weaken.

Well we can only hope. I don't know how it will weaken much being out on the open warm waters. Passing over land weakens hurricanes a bit, but the strong ones usually pull right back together when going back out on the waters.

Floyd took a similar track and they predicted it to turn north way before it did and when it didn't turn they had to put most of the state under a warning which they didn't expect to do and then he surprised us by turning at the very last minute.

I think we'll have a better idea by Monday, we'll do the "Isabel, spare us dance for the next 3 days!!"

 

[alvernon90]

Sorry, I meant that the ridge would weaken, not the hurricane.

Weak ridge = more northern movement
Strong ridge = more western movement

If the current ridge weakens as predicted and the one next week is also very weak, the hurricane might go back out to sea. That would be ideal, but I'll settle for the hurricane moving far enough north so as not to drench Orlando. Sorry North Carolina!

 

[HurricaneWarning]

HurricaneWarning.net

Be safe,
Mike W.

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2003

ISABEL LOOKS LIKE IT IS ABOUT TO BEGIN AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
AN AMSU MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z SHOWED THREE-FOURTHS OF AN OUTER
EYEWALL. AT 2313Z...AN SSMI PASS SHOWED TWO CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS...WITH SOME EROSION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE INNER
EYEWALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY WHICH
ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTH
EYEWALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND EYE
AND MOAT BETWEEN THE TWO EYEWALLS CAN EVEN BE SEEN IN THE RAW
RETURNED SIGNAL FROM THE QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 2116Z.
WHAT THIS MOST LIKELY MEANS IS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE INNER EYEWALL COLLAPSES...BUT THEN
COULD REINTENSIFY AFTER THAT AS THE OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS. WE DO
NOT NORMALLY TRY TO INCLUDE THESE KINDS OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE THIS REPLACEMENT SEEMS TO
BE UNDERWAY I HAVE TAKEN A SHOT AT IT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CORE
STRUCTURE EVOLVES IN THE NEAR TERM...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. RECENT SST
ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE COOL WAKE OF FABIAN IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
AND MAY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON ISABEL.

A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE LEFT IS OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE
LONG-TERM MOTION REMAINS 280/8. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC THINKING...SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...OR
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF ISABEL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE SLOW WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND THE
5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS
STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHAT
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[HurricaneWarning]

Looks like it may make that curve and stay away from WDW. On the other hand that may not be good news for the Carolina's. We'll just have to wait and see.
Be safe,
Mike W.

HurricaneWarning.net



HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003

THERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT OR THAT CAN BE ADDED TO THE
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF ISABEL AFTER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
BASED ON THE OUSTANDING CLOUD PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 140 KNOTS. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CORE
STRUCTURE EVOLVES IN THE NEAR TERM...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HERE COMES A LITTLE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE FOUR MAIN MODELS. THE GFDL
WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL...TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND DEPENDING UPON THE RUN YOU
PICK...THE TURN OCCURS FARTHER TO THE WEST OR FARTHER TO THE EAST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK MODEL WHICH HAS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
...MOVES THE HURRICANE FASTER AND BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO
THE U.S. COAST IN 5 DAYS. THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING ITS TUNE
FROM RUN TO RUN...IS MUCH SLOWER AND IN 5 DAYS PLACES THE HURRICANE
ABOUT 450 N MI FROM THE U.S COAST. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE
CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
FINALLY...THE NOGAPS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS UP TO 5 DAYS.

NOTE: THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND 5
DAYS. IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE HURRICANE COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...HERE COMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ISABEL HAS
BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. MOST IMPORTANTLY...DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATION IN
MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHAT PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Tsunami8]

Mike W. You rock! My family and I will be heading down to the Beach Club Villas tomorrow. I have been reading your updates all week. Whether or not Isabel comes to Orlando, I have been enormously educated with your knowledge of Hurricanes. Although there is something to be said about "ignorance is bliss". I appreciate your expertise and web site links. We have a weatherman here in Philly named 'Hurricane' Schwartz (not sure why?), if he ever leaves, you're a shoe in! Hopefully the only Hurricane I'll see, will be in a tall glass poolside at Stormalong Bay(isn't that name apropos!).

 

[MontyMontyMOnty]

Hi everybody!
We are also headig to WDW next week--maybe as evacuees! We are oceanfront in South Carolina, and would have to leave anyway--the WL willbe by far our nicest evacuation accomodations to date!

Just a quick word of advice for those with South Carolina stop-overs during the hurricane--I saw a few of you on this thread who are coming here first!

--If you are visiting the coast, and the hurricane is projected to hit us, the national guard wil"suggest" you leave. Depending on the strength of the storm and liklihood of it striking nearby, the suggestion may be a strong one! They generally try to clear tourists 24-48 hours in advance, and residents 24 hours-12 hours before projected landfall. If you are visiting, you might want to make a reservation at an inland hotel--just in case. Make the reservation now, you can always cancel it later if you don't need it. Rooms within a 2 hour drive are incredibly scarce once a storm is on it's way. You can always cancel, or stay at the "other" hotel one night, then return to the beach--post-hurricane weather is gorgeous, and the beach combing is to die for!

They will have shelters, but these are usually the local elementary schools, and are rustic at best, so we try to plan in advance!

Happy travels to all!

Samantha

 

[disneyfan551]

Thanks for the update! We are planning to visit Myrtle Beach next weekend, and should arrive on the 20th. Has anyone heard if it will be "over" by then? I understand that it is difficult to predict, but just wondering what the forecasters are saying in your area!

I hope things don't get cancelled because of this storm! I REALLY need a mini-getaway before our Disney trip in Nov.!!!

 

[suezpqt]

Soooo - am I understanding this corrrectly? That there is a good possibility that Isabelle will stay away from Florida? I hope that it stays away from everywhere but for all of us that need a DIS fix that it at least stays away from Florida. We are flying from Manchester to Cleveland to Orlando (weird flight!!) on the 20th. Do you all think that at least our flight will be ok?

Keeping my fingers crossed that Isabelle stays away!!!

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Here is a graphic of what the computer models are prediciting. Remember this is still WAY too early to know. I have watched all these models change pretty significantly the last couple of days.

 

[dvcgirl]

From everything I've been reading, the NHC seems to be going with the UKMET model to date. Of course that could change too. Seems like we'll know for sure by late Sunday, early Monday....

 

[Kay1]

It's just waaay to soon to say what will happen. My husband and I went to bed the Sunday night before Andrew hit positive it would hit farther north because the forecasters said it would take a last minute jog to the northwest. It didn't ( likely because of its speed ) and we awoke to the full force of the storm and the eye passing over our house. What a difference just a few miles make. The difference between losing plants and electricity and seeing trucks and moving vans flipped and buildings flattened, and we were very far inland.
I'm just curious about the wind ratings of some of Disney's buildings and rides but I haven't seen those anywhere on the internet. I would like very much to have that info.

 

[jwfla422]

Yes Tsunami8

It is quite an education learning about hurricanes. Being a Philly native myself, I didn't have much of a clue about them until a few years after we moved to South FL.

When Hurricane Andrew hit that brought us all to the reality of just how dangerous and devastating these storms can be! We were lucky enough to live just far enough north that Andrew didn't affect us too badly. But, since then we are always watching the tropics closely!

HAVE A GREAT STAY AT THE BC!!!

HurricaneWarning, thanks for the info!!

 

[JVL1018]

I know we don't know exactly where Isabel wil hit, though it's looking like the Carolinas, from what I am seeing, however do they know an approximate date? Will it be before next Saturday, or can they not tell?

::wondering if we should cancel our flights and get the car ready to drive down a couple days early::

 

[Morgid]

We live on the NC coast and have our first camping trip planned at Ft. Wilderness on Sept. 25, Unfortunately, it looks like Isabel might have some different ideas for us. We have put my mother's house back together 2 times in 8 years due to hurricanes (Fran left her with 36 inches of water in her house, then Bertha came along and took the roof), I just don't want to go there again! Please quit praying for it to hit north of WDW and start praying for no landfall, period! I think He must be listening to that north of Orlando request. Anyway, I wish you all a wonderful vacation.

 

[dvcgirl]

JVL1018...I don't know exactly what day that Isabel would make landfall if it even makes a direct hit, but I've seen estimates of 7 to 8 days from today...which would be next Friday or Saturday. I keep hearing from all the Weather folks that they'll have a much better idea on Monday when a high pressure area is due to build off the coast of New England. How that high develops will tell that tale of what Isabel does.

We're leaving Tuesday and so we'll be fine getting out of NJ, but we're due to come back on Sunday and that might be a problem if it hits NC and then breaks up and comes inland as a tropical storm/depression. I guess I'll worry about that when I'm down in Florida!

Right now it does look like Florida and WDW are in the clear.

 

[Minky]

Hi guys,

I have been freaking out over Isabel, we planned this 4 months ago (Hurricane season didnt even dawn on me) Our actual vacation stay is sept 22 - oct 6, BUT we are driving down from NJ and leaving the 21st....Im not so afraid of Isabel while there, but on the way down...being from NJ Ive never had too much Hurricane exposure. Anybody know what I should do, does I-95 run close to the coast? Would we have to get a hotel (we usually drive straight through) HELP, Im scared

 

[JVL1018]

Originally posted by dvcgirl
JVL1018...I don't know exactly what day that Isabel would make landfall if it even makes a direct hit, but I've seen estimates of 7 to 8 days from today...which would be next Friday or Saturday.

Pffft, perfect. @@ LOL
My husband is so calm, he's just like it won't hit land(because he said so, I guess LOL), and if it does, no matter what, we will be in WDW on Saturday the 20th, whether we have to change flights or drive, we WILL be there. I am glad for his level headedness b/c I am a little stressed.

Thanks for the info.

 

[GeekChic]

My husband is so calm, he's just like it won't hit land(because he said so, I guess LOL),

Yours and mine must be related cause mine is the same way! I'm over here having a panic attack about the possibility of flying next Thursday and he's like "It's going to curve back out to sea."

Oh, how I wish we could switch flights to leave earlier next week

 

[Disney-Kim]

The current forecasts are looking better for those of us traveling next weekend !!