Lewdannie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Dec 31, 2011
When will we know if something will or will not develop for the first week of October?
I think we will be OK (Disclaimer: Australian with no meteorological knowledge)
When will we know if something will or will not develop for the first week of October?
Stoking the fires of paranoia because sometimes it's fun - lol
From our most trusted source here in Houston
"The main thing Eric and I will be monitoring is in the Caribbean. If we look at the modeling, it’s generally showing an increasing risk that something tries to develop in the southwest Caribbean in a little less than two weeks. That’s a climatologically favored area for tropical development in October. Usually, systems develop there and lift north toward Florida or the Bahamas."
https://spacecityweather.com/092118-dreary-unsettled-weather-returns-houston/#more-8576
Of course, something coming in from the Gulf would be a west coast strike - not like Irma that came more off of the Atlantic
Stoking the fires of paranoia because sometimes it's fun - lol
From our most trusted source here in Houston
"The main thing Eric and I will be monitoring is in the Caribbean. If we look at the modeling, it’s generally showing an increasing risk that something tries to develop in the southwest Caribbean in a little less than two weeks. That’s a climatologically favored area for tropical development in October. Usually, systems develop there and lift north toward Florida or the Bahamas."
https://spacecityweather.com/092118-dreary-unsettled-weather-returns-houston/#more-8576
Of course, something coming in from the Gulf would be a west coast strike - not like Irma that came more off of the Atlantic
We have to keep our eyes on Kirk.
At this time I dont think it will make it past the Islands. Too much wind shear and it will probably get torn apart.
Just keeping one eye on it for now
I think anyone with a trip through the first 10 days of October has very very little to worry about it besides the normal thunderstorms (in my totally uneducated opinion!)
I'm no expert, but I very much agreeI think anyone with a trip through the first 10 days of October has very very little to worry about it besides the normal thunderstorms (in my totally uneducated opinion!)
We must keep our eye on NEXT WEEK to MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
Models are now hinting at "something" trying to develop in the Caribbean and move north.
Unfortunately the October pattern for Hurricanes DOES NOT favor Florida.
So for now we wait and see what happens.
Thanks Spridell for the heads up! Is the time frame you are referring to around Oct 8-17? Just wanted to get a handle on the time frame you are referring to. The models are confusing to me as far as getting time and days out of them.
Thanks Spridell for the heads up! Is the time frame you are referring to around Oct 8-17? Just wanted to get a handle on the time frame you are referring to. The models are confusing to me as far as getting time and days out of them.
Also here is a handy tool so you can decipher what times are on the computer models. ALL times on the modes are in UTC.
For example in the picture I attached (and referring to the handy chart attached) 12Z Wed October 17 would be 7am EST. So that picture attached is showing conditions at 7am Wed October 17.