If the closure is extended beyond 3/31, when do you think it will be announced?

[RufusCat]

The parks could easily be closed until July/August if not longer. Why? Because this disease will still be circulating amongst the world population and there still won't be a vaccine. It will be even worse then than it is now. The only way to keep the death rate low is to stop people interacting with each other and to isolate the people that catch it. You could argue that this is our new normality until the vaccine is ready, which maybe not for a year. There is absolutely no chance that the parks will reopen in April or May, none at all.

 

[jerry557]

The parks could easily be closed until July/August if not longer. Why? Because this disease will still be circulating amongst the world population and there still won't be a vaccine. It will be even worse then than it is now. The only way to keep the death rate low is to stop people interacting with each other and to isolate the people that catch it. You could argue that this is our new normality until the vaccine is ready, which maybe not for a year. There is absolutely no chance that the parks will reopen in April or May, none at all.

Vaccine won't be out for 12-18 months. And that is the optimistic estimate. Then they have to manufacture and distribute it. So does everything stay shut down and closed for two years? Not just Disney but restraunts, movie theaters, bars, businesses? Virus will be the least of our issues then...people will be starving. Economies won't last that long.

 

[RufusCat]

Vaccine won't be out for 12-18 months. And that is the optimistic estimate. Then they have to manufacture and distribute it. So does everything stay shut down and closed for two years? Not just Disney but restraunts, movie theaters, bars, businesses? Virus will be the least of our issues then...people will be starving. Economies won't last that long.

Maybe. The alternative is everyone starts to mingle again and many more people die. Governments the world over will need to support all of these businesses until the crisis is over. And give everyone who loses their job a guaranteed basic income for the duration. Radical but the USA can afford it and it would be the ethical thing to do.

 

[fatmanatee]

Vaccine won't be out for 12-18 months. And that is the optimistic estimate. Then they have to manufacture and distribute it. So does everything stay shut down and closed for two years? Not just Disney but restraunts, movie theaters, bars, businesses? Virus will be the least of our issues then...people will be starving. Economies won't last that long.

The hope is that soon there is way more availability of testing so we can find and isolate everyone who has it, even before they show symptoms, and allow the rest to begin to get back to their normal lives. The model for this is South Korea and unfortunately we’re nowhere close to their level right now.

 

[jerry557]

Maybe. The alternative is everyone starts to mingle again and many more people die. Governments the world over will need to support all of these businesses until the crisis is over. And give everyone who loses their job a guaranteed basic income for the duration. Radical but the USA can afford it and it would be the ethical thing to do.

It's not that simple. The government can pass a relief package for a short-term crisis. If this goes on for months and months, the economy as a whole will dive. The government can keep passing all the relief bills it wants but eventually the dollar will start to lose value and start to see rapid inflation. The supply chains are already stretched thin. The stock market just dropped 3,000 pts today. If this goes for 12 months we will not have an economy left.

 

[westie55]

I think Disney will follow the 8 week guidelines of the CDC. We are looking at a mid May opening at best... For Disney, schools, and other shuttered businessss. I am currently booked for April 15 and haven't changed it yet because I have nothing to lose in waiting, but I know in my heart there is a less than 1% chance of that happening and for good reason. I will rebook for late June when an announcement is made and hope I don't need to postpone that as well.

 

[Dcgc28]

Disney will not go against CDC.

I think Disney has an updated idea when they may reopen and it’s not in 2 weeks.

A tell tale sign of this is them sending the CP’s home, as well as the international workers. They can’t just get themback in a short period of time. When the parks do open up I would not be surprised if Epcot was delayed.

The cp thing is really bad for them, but it’s a nonissue for Disney. They have a new group of both DCP and DICP coming in May. I think it’s a ploy to save a little money in April when they do open back up.

As for Disney vs the CDC it’s a little presumptive to say Disney won’t go against them. Disney is in the business of making money. When losing money becomes a bigger issue than listening to the CDC there’s no telling what Disney will decide.

Without federal regulations the CDC means very little to the general public. Only in situations like this do people care, and judging by beaches and theaters around the country we still don’t care much.

 

[Tandy]

The cp thing is really bad for them, but it’s a nonissue for Disney. They have a new group of both DCP and DICP coming in May. I think it’s a ploy to save a little money in April when they do open back up.

As for Disney vs the CDC it’s a little presumptive to say Disney won’t go against them. Disney is in the business of making money. When losing money becomes a bigger issue than listening to the CDC there’s no telling what Disney will decide.

Without federal regulations the CDC means very little to the general public. Only in situations like this do people care, and judging by beaches and theaters around the country we still don’t care much.

I feel at worst they will extend it to May 1 - They will (or have) exceptions from government to open. It may be a case of blacking out season passes and non US based guests.. It would most likely be similar to a holiday party volume for a little while.
That is what I think would be best case

 

[tlmadden73]

Let's face it .. with the entire world shutting down, it's not like everyone announces they are back open after a few weeks (or a month) and things will be back to normal. As "fun" as a lot of people are making this sound -- we aren't just going to sit at home and binge watch Netflix for 3-4 weeks and then just pick up where we left off.

If the parks are closed until May (or beyond) . it's not like the parks will be back to full operation the first day it's open. I am sure Disney will have maintenance, rehiring of staff, training of new staff, cut hours, cut entertainment, reduced capacity, reduced menus .. etc. etc. Too many other things are closing and shutting down this entire freakin' world for a month or more .. it will take a LONG time to fully recover.

Disney may open .. but not back to full operation for a while -- which means Disney will have to heavily encourage people to come there.

I have a vacation planned for June .. at this point I fully intend on either being forced to cancel it or just cancelling it because I don't want to go back to Disney if it's going not be fully back in business (unless they heavily discount my stay/tickets).

As much as we all will NEED the magic of Disney after this, I am fearful on how long it will take to come back to its full force.

 

[Tandy]

Let's face it .. with the entire world shutting down, it's not like everyone announces they are back open after a few weeks (or a month) and things will be back to normal. As "fun" as a lot of people are making this sound -- we aren't just going to sit at home and binge watch Netflix for 3-4 weeks and then just pick up where we left off.

If the parks are closed until May (or beyond) . it's not like the parks will be back to full operation the first day it's open. I am sure Disney will have maintenance, rehiring of staff, training of new staff, cut hours, cut entertainment, reduced capacity, reduced menus .. etc. etc. Too many other things are closing and shutting down this entire freakin' world for a month or more .. it will take a LONG time to fully recover.

Disney may open .. but not back to full operation for a while -- which means Disney will have to heavily encourage people to come there.

I have a vacation planned for June .. at this point I fully intend on either being forced to cancel it or just cancelling it because I don't want to go back to Disney if it's going not be fully back in business (unless they heavily discount my stay/tickets).

As much as we all will NEED the magic of Disney after this, I am fearful on how long it will take to come back to its full force.

I dont think it will be that hard - I have postponed my April trip to May and getting a reservation for hotel was almost dried out and fastpasses and dining are just as hard to get.

 

[tlmadden73]

I dont think it will be that hard - I have postponed my April trip to May and getting a reservation for hotel was almost dried out and fastpasses and dining are just as hard to get.

Well . no one has cancelled their reservations for May yet probably. Reservations and FastPasses are like gold --- everyone will optimistically hold onto their them until it gets closer and they are either forced to cancel them or they get an idea what it will be like then.

I mean . .if I am allowed to .. I will be making my Fast Passes in 30 days .. "just in case".

 

[Tandy]

Well . no one has cancelled their reservations for May yet probably. Reservations and FastPasses are like gold --- everyone will optimistically hold onto their them until it gets closer and they are either forced to cancel them or they get an idea what it will be like then.

I mean . .if I am allowed to .. I will be making my Fast Passes in 30 days .. "just in case".

Right but if people were that worried I would think they would be cancelling in droves even past the "opening" day

 

[elle21]

Let's face it .. with the entire world shutting down, it's not like everyone announces they are back open after a few weeks (or a month) and things will be back to normal. As "fun" as a lot of people are making this sound -- we aren't just going to sit at home and binge watch Netflix for 3-4 weeks and then just pick up where we left off.

If the parks are closed until May (or beyond) . it's not like the parks will be back to full operation the first day it's open. I am sure Disney will have maintenance, rehiring of staff, training of new staff, cut hours, cut entertainment, reduced capacity, reduced menus .. etc. etc. Too many other things are closing and shutting down this entire freakin' world for a month or more .. it will take a LONG time to fully recover.

Disney may open .. but not back to full operation for a while -- which means Disney will have to heavily encourage people to come there.

I have a vacation planned for June .. at this point I fully intend on either being forced to cancel it or just cancelling it because I don't want to go back to Disney if it's going not be fully back in business (unless they heavily discount my stay/tickets).

As much as we all will NEED the magic of Disney after this, I am fearful on how long it will take to come back to its full force.

A company of this size should be able to open and get right back to business as usual.

 

[Tandy]

A company of this size should be able to open and get right back to business as usual.

I agree. This is a machine we are talking about. It has been doing this non stop for so long that nothing is done without a machine like precision.
They will flip the switch on one morning and it will be like it was the day they closed.

 

[Krandor]

A company of this size should be able to open and get right back to business as usual.

You still need people to open on a dime and Disney has sent a lot of their people home. They can't being all those people back on a dime no matter how big they are.

 

[Thecouch]

well there wont be many overseas guest for a while anyway . I know air NZ has grounded almost all international flights for 4 months . qantas announced until at least 31st may they will ground 90% of there fleet . both are reducing staff numbers so are expecting to have many flights soon

 

[Coffee66]

New York State starting to shut down in western new york. Lots of counties declaring state of emergency.

Just shut down all restaurant till further notice in New York State. Take out only

 

[HuskieJohn]

My guess for a reopening scenario will be May 15th for CM upload, resort hotels open May 21st and limited 2-3 park opening May 22nd which will be limited to resort only guests.

 

[TwoMisfits]

SAT just canceled May 2 test date worldwide...pretty sure that's another nail in the idea for Disney to reopen before May...

 

[freshmanjs]

Not picking on you but this idea in general. What crisis?? There hasn’t been one. The numbers haven’t jumped up and doubled in the US for the last few days like they are “supposed” to. (I’ve been following the official WHO tallies).
So clearly social distancing is helping. Many people have the virus and have very mild symptoms. It hasn’t reached any type of crisis level so I don’t understand why we keep seeing more and more intense closures and shut downs, and predictions that it will be six months until things are open again.

March 13 - 2160
March 16 - 4350
What are you talking about?