Is June 2021 a safe bet?

Primeval Princess

Momketeer
Joined
May 14, 2020
Do you all think Hawaii will be open for normal tourism by next June? Or is it still too risky to book a trip there for next summer? When June 2021 flights are released, I'll probably want to book right away, if that's when we plan to go. Or is it best to wait for June 2022? Thoughts?
 

jodybird511

DIS Veteran
Joined
Oct 31, 2014
We had a trip planned for next month and have cancelled, with the expectation that we will take that trip next June instead. I'm *hoping* it will happen, but really.....who knows. I think the next couple of months will give us better perspective on where things will go...
 


thedogatemyhomework

Mouseketeer
Joined
Jun 9, 2015
it all kinda depends on what your view of "normal" is...hopefully there will at a minimum be a treatment available to greatly improve fatality rates, and shorten recovery times...of course a vaccine (preferably without nasty side effects) would be best.

however even if a vaccine that works 100% of the time, in everyone and has nearly 0 negative side effects is widely available by jan 2021...5 months of true recovery time may not be enough (all depends on what is/isn't on a "must do" list for a trip to hawaii)

the longer that it seems recovery will take...the more small business owners will decide to shut down (and move to a different state)...and its not just business owners...but many of the younger workers may do likewise. what would this mean for tourists next summer...it may mean that it takes longer for rooms to get turned around (so check in times may be later, and check out times might be earlier...less rooms may also be available). it could also mean that hotels and tour companies that were very good prior to the shutdown...may not be good after (as people may decide to change jobs rather than go back to where they were).

there are some things that should remain almost unaffected, and see a near instant return to what they were....beaches, parks, and museums (pearl harbor, and bishop museum) should all be fairly quick to recover. places like dole, haleiwa (all the small shops), and kua loa ranch...might not recover as quickly...if ever.

the flipside to waiting till 2022 or later is that if enough people decide they also want to wait till a "full" recovery (possibly 3-4 years)...the state may have decided to try and transition the economy away from tourism and to something else. this could mean that trips could cost quite a bit more as getting any other industry to work in hawaii requires one basic thing...lower cost of living...which would require policies/taxes to make land cheaper (so unattractive to vacation homes, investment properties, and short term stays).
 
  • Paul1955

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Feb 29, 2020
    I think visitors will be allowed back next summer, but the harder question is if visitors will be welcomed. After reading different media accounts, I have the impression now that there is a great deal of resentment toward mainland visitors, and the resentment has been growing for quite sometime. I am not questioning the reasons why the resentment exists, but my family is likely pulling the plug of traveling to Hawaii for the forseeable future. We would just not rather vacation somewhere where visitors are not welcomed.
     
    Last edited:

    bookwormde

    <font color=darkorchid>Heading out now, another ad
    Joined
    Mar 16, 2008
    Reality is that in the worst case scenario (no vaccine and immunity from having covid 19 only last in months range) 2022 would likely be not better than 2021
     
  • Primeval Princess

    Momketeer
    Joined
    May 14, 2020
    I think visitors will be allowed back next summer, but the harder question is if visitors will be welcomed. After reading different media accounts, I have the impression now that there is a great deal of resentment toward mainland visitors, and the resentment has been growing for quite sometime. I am not questioning the reasons why the resentment exists, but my family is likely pulling the plug of traveling to Hawaii for the forseeable future. We would just not rather vacation somewhere where visitors are not welcomed.
    I think that is probably overblown. I went to Maui several years ago and never encountered a bit of hostility. Barcelona has the same kind of reputation of locals not wanting tourists, media coverage of anti-tourist protests, etc., but we went there last June, and everyone was perfectly nice. No different than vacationing anywhere else.
     

    Heather07438

    WDW Apprentice
    Joined
    Oct 20, 2015
    Very true. This whole thing (reopening) is moving very slowly, though. And it seems to get slower, not faster, as time passes. Maybe that's just me. It's hard to have perspective right now.
    Yep. And it's hard to be 100% certain when playing out all different scenarios that could happen.

    I think the slow measured steps intend to aid data collection and control. If that helps create solid plans going into the fall and flu season then it'll be worth it. By the end of next winter I expect to see some combination of R0 reduction, better treatment and vaccines making a huge impact that puts most of this pandemic behind us.
     

    Paul1955

    Earning My Ears
    Joined
    Feb 29, 2020
    I think that is probably overblown. I went to Maui several years ago and never encountered a bit of hostility. Barcelona has the same kind of reputation of locals not wanting tourists, media coverage of anti-tourist protests, etc., but we went there last June, and everyone was perfectly nice. No different than vacationing anywhere else.
    I hope you are right. The media does have a tendency to exaggerate the worse. Eventually, the Hawaiian tourism industry will need to not do some PR work to encourage visitors to return.
     
  • thedogatemyhomework

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jun 9, 2015
    a lot of the "growing resentment" towards tourists over the past few years is directly tied to things like airbnb...its not that people in hawaii have just been gradually starting to hate tourists...it's that residents have been feeling the impacts of increased housing costs due to vacation rentals...and not been very fond of it.

    imagine if there were hotels near where you live for tourists...but then dozens (or hundreds) of airbnb listings started to popup driving up housing costs by 10%+ but not leading to 10% more income for everyone...you may be angry at that, and at the tourists that are driving the demand for those listings...but not feel angry at all for those choosing to stay at the hotels...but for tourists it would be very easy to be confused as to where that anger is being directed to and why.
     

    cgattis

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 1, 2009
    .but then dozens (or hundreds) of airbnb listings started to popup driving up housing costs by 10%+ but not leading to 10% more income for everyone...you may be angry at that, and at the tourists that are driving the demand for those listings
    Seems like they should be angry at their neighbors who are renting their homes via these methods then.....

    When we went in 2017 we feel super welcome everywhere we went. Of course, most places we went were making money from us, so.....and yeah, that could change, too. But I’m planning my trip for 2022 (conglomeration of milestone events that year—not due to corona) just the same.
     

    Karebear

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Sep 24, 1999
    a lot of the "growing resentment" towards tourists over the past few years is directly tied to things like airbnb...its not that people in hawaii have just been gradually starting to hate tourists...it's that residents have been feeling the impacts of increased housing costs due to vacation rentals...and not been very fond of it.

    imagine if there were hotels near where you live for tourists...but then dozens (or hundreds) of airbnb listings started to popup driving up housing costs by 10%+ but not leading to 10% more income for everyone...you may be angry at that, and at the tourists that are driving the demand for those listings...but not feel angry at all for those choosing to stay at the hotels...but for tourists it would be very easy to be confused as to where that anger is being directed to and why.
    This is true for many tourist destinations. My daughter had a cheer competition in Vegas last year. There were 24 girls on her squad. We decided to rent a house for all of the girls and the chaperones that went instead of a hotel because we figured it would be easier to watch the girls (8th graders) as we did not have enough moms to have at least one adult per hotel room. Anyway, we ended up renting this huge house in a neighborhood off the Strip and the owner told us repeatedly that we had to be quiet, etc. as we were in a residential area and not a tourist one. He said that many Airbnb rentals were getting shut down due to being in neighborhoods and not the tourist areas.
     

    Primeval Princess

    Momketeer
    Joined
    May 14, 2020
    a lot of the "growing resentment" towards tourists over the past few years is directly tied to things like airbnb...its not that people in hawaii have just been gradually starting to hate tourists...it's that residents have been feeling the impacts of increased housing costs due to vacation rentals...and not been very fond of it.

    imagine if there were hotels near where you live for tourists...but then dozens (or hundreds) of airbnb listings started to popup driving up housing costs by 10%+ but not leading to 10% more income for everyone...you may be angry at that, and at the tourists that are driving the demand for those listings...but not feel angry at all for those choosing to stay at the hotels...but for tourists it would be very easy to be confused as to where that anger is being directed to and why.
    Yes, that is my understanding of the situation. The rental of residential homes to tourists is a serious problem in some areas. That is one reason why we always stay in hotels or resorts. We don't want to contribute that directly to an area becoming unaffordable. I can feel their pain, because my own city is rapidly becoming unaffordable- it's my hometown, but in many ways it's a different city than the one I grew up in. I owned a home for 10 years, and it almost doubled in value during that time, strictly due to the popularity of this location, not anything I had done to the house. That's nice if you're selling property, but not nice if you're buying, renting or paying property taxes.
     

    thedogatemyhomework

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jun 9, 2015
    Seems like they should be angry at their neighbors who are renting their homes via these methods then.....

    When we went in 2017 we feel super welcome everywhere we went. Of course, most places we went were making money from us, so.....and yeah, that could change, too. But I’m planning my trip for 2022 (conglomeration of milestone events that year—not due to corona) just the same.
    in 2017 the resentment wasn't very noticeable, it was also less prevalent and known what impact things like airbnb were having. but as with the state governments response to the pandemic...lack of action also contributed to increased visibility of the resentment.

    its also improved somewhat recently with the restrictions that short term vacation rentals are now only legal in resort areas...however there remain quite a few who operate illegally...and there are still some loopholes that allow some to remain (if you pay for 30 days and leave after 7, it does not count as a short term rental).

    if the "neighbors" actually lived anywhere near the rental units the anger would probably get directed at them...but in many cases...those who own/operate the vacation rentals live nowhere near the units (and in some cases aren't even on the island or in the state). it can often be difficult to tell the difference between the operator of a vacation rental and the people who are renting the unit.
     

    cgattis

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 1, 2009
    in 2017 the resentment wasn't very noticeable, it was also less prevalent and known what impact things like airbnb were having. but as with the state governments response to the pandemic...lack of action also contributed to increased visibility of the resentment.

    its also improved somewhat recently with the restrictions that short term vacation rentals are now only legal in resort areas...however there remain quite a few who operate illegally...and there are still some loopholes that allow some to remain (if you pay for 30 days and leave after 7, it does not count as a short term rental).

    if the "neighbors" actually lived anywhere near the rental units the anger would probably get directed at them...but in many cases...those who own/operate the vacation rentals live nowhere near the units (and in some cases aren't even on the island or in the state). it can often be difficult to tell the difference between the operator of a vacation rental and the people who are renting the unit.
    Do the vrbo, Airbnb, etc. have to pay tourism taxes on rentals like in many tourist areas? Seems like the government would jack those way up to 1) make more money and 2) make it harder to rent at high prices because the renters would then have to factor in a big tax on top of it?

    From several different threads here, it seems like maybe lots of folks aren’t really very happy with the mayors and the governor in general? (Are any of those guys viewed as “not really Hawaiian?) When’s the next election? Maybe folks will get a chance soon to replace them and help their situation.

    Anyway, it’s interesting to hear these local perspectives. Thanks for sharing! But unless there are folks picketing the airports, I’m going back to borrow a tiny bit of paradise in 2022 😬. I never expected to be so knocked off my feet by it, but WOW I fell HARD. Can’t wait to be there again.
     

    thedogatemyhomework

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Jun 9, 2015
    most vacation rentals didn't pay taxes, weren't regulated and it really didn't help that airbnb's management kept claiming that they had no impact on the housing market at all and were only helping provide extra income to residents...but when the restrictions got put in place...next month 10-15% or so drop in average rent...yup no impact at all.
    whether or not people are protesting at the airports depends almost completely on how confident they are in the state/local government to have a plan...and follow through...so...for now...if the quarantine gets dropped...I'd anticipate protestors to be out in force. maybe that changes in a few more weeks/months...but based on recent track records...I wouldn't count on it.

    it seems like even the state legislature isn't doing much better than the mayors or residents at getting information as they've just started formal inquiries just to get more transparency.
     

    Primeval Princess

    Momketeer
    Joined
    May 14, 2020
    Protests should be targeted more specifically against vacation rentals, and less against tourists in general. Doing the latter just muddles the real problem, and makes it less likely to ever get solved.
     

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