Marathon Weekend Weather Thread

[BuckeyeBama]

Reporting in from about 100 miles SE of Disney...ran my 12-miler this morning and it was AWFUL. 100% humidity and mid70sF by 8am. With two weeks to the half marathon, I hope things change, but just in case, be prepared for humid conditions. For comparison, I found the 2016 WDW half/full conditions to be lovely for running and I know that the humidity bothered some folks.

I ran 11.5 miles in rain, sleet and snow this morning with temps right at freezing. I say, bring on the heat and humidity.

Merry Christmas!

 

[Mimsy Borogove]

I ran 11.5 miles in rain, sleet and snow this morning with temps right at freezing. I say, bring on the heat and humidity.

Merry Christmas!

You, sir, are a braver person than me! Merry Christmas to you and yours!

 

[rteetz]

Latest from Accuweather

1/4- High 71 Low 54 couple of showers possible
1/5- High 74 Low 54 couple of showers possible
1/6- High 74 Low 53 couple of showers possible
1/7- High 70 Low 48 sunny
1/8- High 70 Low 50 partly sunny

Weather.com

1/4- High 79 Low 59
1/5- High 75 Low 56
1/6- High 74 Low 56
1/7- High 78 Low 58 Chance of rain
1/8- High 75 Low 57

Obviously I wouldn't trust the percipitation outlooks yet but it's starting to look like 70s during the day with lows in the mid 50s. Could be worse I guess.

 

[jfinke]

I am hoping that accuweather is more accurate than weather.com.

 

[ZellyB]

I'll take being a bit hotter on the course in exchange for some lovely warm weather for the rest of our trip. When we last ran the marathon in 2015, it was pretty cool for most of the trip and I was wishing for some heat before coming back to the cold Midwest.

 

[rteetz]

Today's weather update

Accuweather

1/4- High 80 Low 56 Showers possible
1/5- High 74 Low 54
1/6- High 74 Low 53
1/7- High 70 Low 48
1/8- High 70 Low 50 Showers possible

Weather.com

1/4- High 79 Low 59
1/5- High 73 Low 54
1/6- High 72 Low 57
1/7- High 78 Low 61
1/8- High 77 Low 58

 

[FFigawi]

It's good the forecasts are not accurate this far out. 61 for the start of the marathon would make for a tough race.

 

[tigger536]

Agree on too early! and I would actually be fine with these temps, just no rain, please.

 

[rteetz]

Today's look at the weather

Accuweather

1/4- High 81 Low 53 showers possible
1/5- High 76 Low 53
1/6- High 74 Low 53
1/7- High 70 Low 48
1/8- High 70 Low 50 showers possible

Weather.com

1/4- High 82 Low 59 showers possible
1/5- High 73 Low 52
1/6- High 71 Low 54
1/7- High 74 Low 60
1/8- High 76 Low 56 showers possible

 

[rteetz]

Today's look at the weather

Accuweather

1/4- High 78 Low 60 showers possible
1/5- High 77 Low 53 sunny
1/6- High 76 Low 56 partly sunny
1/7- High 70 Low 48 partly cloudy
1/8- High 70 Low 50 showers possible

Weather.com

1/4- High 81 Low 63 AM showers possible
1/5- High 80 Low 62 partly cloudy
1/6- High 75 Low 60 partly cloudy
1/7- High 74 Low 59 PM showers possible
1/8- High 71 Low 55 scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon

 

[FFigawi]

Still a big difference between 48 and 59 on marathon morning. With a front coming through today, the models won't be very accurate until early next week.

 

[rteetz]

Still a big difference between 48 and 59 on marathon morning. With a front coming through today, the models won't be very accurate until early next week.

You mean half marathon morning? The full is on the 8th. Right now the difference between the two models is 50 and 55 for the full.

 

[FFigawi]

You mean half marathon morning? The full is on the 8th. Right now the difference between the two models is 50 and 55 for the full.

No, I mean marathon morning. Usually with weather forecasts, the low given for a day is the overnight low that night. In this case, the low of 48 (or 59) will be in the early morning of Sunday.

 

[jhorstma]

Not so much a prediction but important nonetheless - sunrise 7:19 am for all 4 races.

 

[mollybloom]

No, I mean marathon morning. Usually with weather forecasts, the low given for a day is the overnight low that night. In this case, the low of 48 (or 59) will be in the early morning of Sunday.

Well that is a fun fact! Good to know!!

 

[DVCDisneyRunner]

No, I mean marathon morning. Usually with weather forecasts, the low given for a day is the overnight low that night. In this case, the low of 48 (or 59) will be in the early morning of Sunday.

Apparently there is no standard for this (no surprise).

"
Question:
On the website forecast, I can easily tell what the high for the day is; but my question is when is the low temperature? Is it for the morning of that particular day or is it for that night (morning of the next day)? Also, does everybody do it the same way?

Answer:

Good questions . . .
(1) We post the low for the 24-hour period of the calendar day on the website.
(2) On something like 90% of the days, the low actually occurs sometime closer to sunrise . . . and to me, that is the "morning" of the next day, and not the "overnight."
(3) So, on our graphics, for most days, the posted low represents the early morning temperature and the high is for the afternoon.

True . . . several other sources still say "overnight low," and some will even put the low on today's graphic (representing tonight) rather than on tomorrow's graphic . . . in effect, showing the low on the wrong calendar day. I see that one of our competitors has changed their practice recently to be more reflective our our approach.

In my mind, saying "tonight's low" is misleading . . . and even explains why so many people think the "coolest" part of the day is near midnight rather than near sunrise.

Whether you're planning for the kids' dress for the bus, or just getting ready for your own morning commute . . . posting the low as tomorrow's wake-up temperature is much closer to the "truth" for the vast majority of days.

Yes, it is semantics, but to me, stating "tomorrow morning's Low" is much more representative than saying "tonight's low."

Thanks for the question!
Jay Grymes
Chief Meteorologist
"

 

[FFigawi]

Nope, there is no standard. Customary practice for Accuweather and other services is to show the low as the overnight low (sunrise to sunrise day). For local short term weather forecasts with people looking for information on commutes, the approach above makes business sense.

 

[beltwaybarry]

Well, this is interesting. Note reference to Florida escaping cold wave. . . . (posted today in Washington Post, by Capital Weather Gang):

Temperature difference from normal forecast for Jan. 7 from GFS model. (WeatherBell.com)

Frigid air will grip an unusually large portion of the Lower 48 states in just over a week’s time. The cold is predicted to consume almost the entire nation, from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast, sparing only Florida.

While some parts of the country are forecast to experience temperatures 30 to 50 degrees colder than normal, the cold snap will be most remarkable for the amount of real estate it is predicted to cover.

Brian Brettschneider, a climatologist based in Alaska, noted Wednesday that the National Weather Service’s six- to 10-day temperature outlook projected the nation’s largest area with high confidence (90 percent probability) of below-normal temperatures since November 2014.

 

[mr incredibleS1]

Today's look at the weather

Accuweather

1/4- High 78 Low 60 showers possible
1/5- High 77 Low 53 sunny
1/6- High 76 Low 56 partly sunny
1/7- High 70 Low 48 partly cloudy
1/8- High 70 Low 50 showers possible

Weather.com

1/4- High 81 Low 63 AM showers possible
1/5- High 80 Low 62 partly cloudy
1/6- High 75 Low 60 partly cloudy
1/7- High 74 Low 59 PM showers possible
1/8- High 71 Low 55 scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon

I like Accuweather's forecast better, so until a new forecast comes in tomorrow, I choose to believe that one.

 

[rteetz]

Today's weather update

Accuweather

1/4- High 81 Low 59 possible shower
1/5- High 80 Low 57
1/6- High 81 Low 58
1/7- High 81 Low 51
1/8- High 70 Low 50 possible showers

Weather.com

1/4- High 81 Low 62
1/5- High 82 Low 63
1/6- High 84 Low 64 showers after midnight
1/7- High 74 Low 53 Showers in AM
1/8- High 71 Low 56 showers in PM