NOAA Weather forecast.... FYI for those with Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 plans

[Mugglemama]

Heavy, repeated storms could make it difficult for us to schedule a time to drive there and back - potentially causing us to have to reschedule. But as a CA resident, I'm much more concerned about water than I am about Disneyland, so if a strong storm season delays our trip, so be it.

My only gripe is that I live in the Sierra foothills...and huge storms are kinda scary up here!

 

[Canadian Harmony]

In Victoria, we don't tan, we rust, so we're used to the wet. I would like nicer weather for our early October trip because trick-or-treating in the rain bites.

 

[Sherry E]

Has anyone here actually been through a strong El Nino 'season' in California? If so, you know the damage and havoc it can cause all around the state. I know that it sounds good in theory -- because we desperately need the rain in California --- but you must believe me when I tell you (because I have experienced a lot of El Nino events in my life) that IF a sizeable El Nino comes along, it is not going to be the great relief that it seems like it will be, because our storm drains, hillsides, infrastructures, sidewalks, roofs, etc., are not prepared to handle that much rain (simply because it is not a regular event). Flooding will occur. Mudslides will occur. Roofs will cave in.

We are not talking about some pleasant showers here and there that automatically solve the drought issue and then go away. The El Nino rain (if it is moderate or severe) can be torrential, and last for weeks on end. Again, I have experienced this first hand. You can imagine my joy at coming home from work one day in 2001, only to turn on the light in my bathroom and realize that rain water was all over my floor, and leaking from my light fixture (I'm on the first floor of apartments, with 2 floors above me). The roof of the apartment building couldn't be fixed for about one month, because the rain was relentless. In 2004, I was working late one night and there was rain water coming in through the roof of the office.

Just last week or so, when we had some heavy rain hit overnight, chaos ensued -- one such occurrence involved a flood of rushing rain water cascading down an inside stairwell of a nearby apartment building! And that was just from heavy rain in one night!

The rain that Texas has been experiencing -- with the floods and general mayhem? That's torrential, relentless El Nino rain. Trust me -- we do not want that. Unfortunately, we won't be able to stop it -- it will happen if it's going to happen -- but it will cause a lot of mayhem before it brings any kind of relief.

 

[sheetz]

It's true, El Nino storms can be really scary. Some of the rainfall totals during these types of storm systems are similar to what you would see from hurricanes. But what else can you do but be prepared in the best way possible?

 

[JadeDarkstar]

I remember one storm where my house flooded and my son was so young we tied a canoe up in the front yard behind the gate so that he would be safe. It was up to my knees. He was 3. I know if el nino happens while we are there in dec it could be bad days the only thing i think good about it is many ppl will not go to the parks I think.

 

[HopLow1968]

I was stationed at Camp Pendleton during the 90s, I remember we had one storm that torn up train tracks and swept some helicopters away.

 

[Trisity]

Was starting to plan a "maybe" November trip to Disneyland and saw this thread

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...f-strong-wet-el-nino-in-california-this-year/

Still another 6 weeks until they can say more about it that article says and may just put planning on hold until that point

 

[kirstie101]

Has anyone here actually been through a strong El Nino 'season' in California? If so, you know the damage and havoc it can cause all around the state. I know that it sounds good in theory -- because we desperately need the rain in California --- but you must believe me when I tell you (because I have experienced a lot of El Nino events in my life) that IF a sizeable El Nino comes along, it is not going to be the great relief that it seems like it will be, because our storm drains, hillsides, infrastructures, sidewalks, roofs, etc., are not prepared to handle that much rain (simply because it is not a regular event). Flooding will occur. Mudslides will occur. Roofs will cave in.

We are not talking about some pleasant showers here and there that automatically solve the drought issue and then go away. The El Nino rain (if it is moderate or severe) can be torrential, and last for weeks on end. Again, I have experienced this first hand. You can imagine my joy at coming home from work one day in 2001, only to turn on the light in my bathroom and realize that rain water was all over my floor, and leaking from my light fixture (I'm on the first floor of apartments, with 2 floors above me). The roof of the apartment building couldn't be fixed for about one month, because the rain was relentless. In 2004, I was working late one night and there was rain water coming in through the roof of the office.

Just last week or so, when we had some heavy rain hit overnight, chaos ensued -- one such occurrence involved a flood of rushing rain water cascading down an inside stairwell of a nearby apartment building! And that was just from heavy rain in one night!

The rain that Texas has been experiencing -- with the floods and general mayhem? That's torrential, relentless El Nino rain. Trust me -- we do not want that. Unfortunately, we won't be able to stop it -- it will happen if it's going to happen -- but it will cause a lot of mayhem before it brings any kind of relief.

The last big El Nino in California was in 97/98. Granted I was only 20 at the time but I remember some of it from a Northern California perspective. I lived in East Sacramento at the time and remember localized street flooding in neighborhoods simply because the drains couldn't handle that much water. I remember sandbag locations where you could go get sandbags for free. I know there was creek flooding. I know the Feather River had a levee break (not too far from sacramento) that flooded farmland. Thats really all I remember and I know nothing of what happened in So Cal at that time. I also think there were mudslides but I can't tell you where.

 

[beachdreamr1229]

Has anyone here actually been through a strong El Nino 'season' in California? If so, you know the damage and havoc it can cause all around the state. I know that it sounds good in theory -- because we desperately need the rain in California --- but you must believe me when I tell you (because I have experienced a lot of El Nino events in my life) that IF a sizeable El Nino comes along, it is not going to be the great relief that it seems like it will be, because our storm drains, hillsides, infrastructures, sidewalks, roofs, etc., are not prepared to handle that much rain (simply because it is not a regular event). Flooding will occur. Mudslides will occur. Roofs will cave in.

We are not talking about some pleasant showers here and there that automatically solve the drought issue and then go away. The El Nino rain (if it is moderate or severe) can be torrential, and last for weeks on end. Again, I have experienced this first hand. You can imagine my joy at coming home from work one day in 2001, only to turn on the light in my bathroom and realize that rain water was all over my floor, and leaking from my light fixture (I'm on the first floor of apartments, with 2 floors above me). The roof of the apartment building couldn't be fixed for about one month, because the rain was relentless. In 2004, I was working late one night and there was rain water coming in through the roof of the office.

Just last week or so, when we had some heavy rain hit overnight, chaos ensued -- one such occurrence involved a flood of rushing rain water cascading down an inside stairwell of a nearby apartment building! And that was just from heavy rain in one night!

The rain that Texas has been experiencing -- with the floods and general mayhem? That's torrential, relentless El Nino rain. Trust me -- we do not want that. Unfortunately, we won't be able to stop it -- it will happen if it's going to happen -- but it will cause a lot of mayhem before it brings any kind of relief.

Agreed. I still look forward to the long term results of maybe a little more water in our reservoirs, but the rains and winds themselves are terrible. I was in college up in Santa Cruz during one of the big ones. I remember driving back to SC from southern California and barely making it through La Conchita because most of the town, railroad, and freeway were under mud. I remember an earlier one in the 90s and not being able to drive anywhere because the streets were so flooded that the water flooded our car engine. So, yes, it can get very, very bad. I live in a strong fire zone, so I personally am not a huge fan of what will probably happen--huge fires surrounding the valley I live in followed by major flooding of the homes in and near the hills. California isn't really build for the kind of rains we see, especially in coastal communities. But...we need the rain desperately.

 

[Sherry E]

Exactly -- the storm drains in California are not capable of handling a lot of water in a short period of time. And the pavement can only absorb so much. Various structures in California are not built for withstanding that sort of rain, simply because heavy rain is not a regular enough occurrence. I don't even think we're truly prepared for a big earthquake, and we know that's coming (eventually). So I doubt we're prepared for any kind of massive storm system that won't let up for a month.

There have been a lot of El Nino-related weather systems that have passed through -- I do remember the '97/'98 one, and it was said to have been the strongest but I couldn't tell the different from a visual standpoint (in my specific area). It made more of an impact in other areas, I think. There was also one that hung around in early 1993 (I remember trying to leap over flooded streets full of rushing water), and then there was one back in the mid/late '80s (I remember the weather person warning us that the storm was going to be the worst one we had ever had, but it didn't end up being as bad as I expected). The one that lingered on into early 2001 was the one that deposited rain water all over my floor because it weakened the roof and leaked through the building, and then the one that either began or ended in late 2004 was the one where the water was leaking through my office's ceiling.

But right now, Texas is really getting slammed with El Nino's wrath, and it is wreaking a lot of havoc around the state. The weather people say that this is the most rain they have ever had in any given month -- not just in May, but in any month, ever.

 

[JadeDarkstar]

my friend in TX is in the storm and saying its bad right now. If this si the same as the el nino storms I think it will be as bad in AZ and Cali this time around.

 

[LadyBJ]

This is making me think twice about our December trip and I just booked our flights. How was it in DLR during EL Niño season in the past?

 

[RnbwSktles]

I will be there Nov 12-16 for the Avengers Half-Marathon weekend. I can certainly run in the rain, but I would be very disappointed if I can't see the new shows! I was already worried about the Santa Ana winds...

 

[JadeDarkstar]

The fireworks got canceled during my avenger race weekend last year it didn't rain but was windy (oh and if you are a pin trader bring a small bag for things and stick a few pins in there. I saw one on a lanyard running in main street I wish I had grabbed but I didn't have 1 pin with me.) That was due to wind. I think if the fire works were canceled they may still be able to put on the light show part. I am not sure how ever. I hope you get to see them all and us in Dec too.

 

[Oswald23]

What I read is that El Nino (in California) can produce large amounts of rain in winter (not fall). Mostly starting in december but generally the worst in January and February. Is this what SoCal people remember or is this not the case?

 

[Meriweather]

we have trips in Oct and Dec. I don't mind rain (35 year WA resident, originally from N CA and now in AZ), if it isn't a downpour.
We stay onsite, so room will be close.
But.....taking 2 year old DGD in Dec. and rain could be a problem, although as an AZ native, she loves it.

I am glad CA would be getting the water they need.

 

[gottalovepluto]

What I read is that El Nino (in California) can produce large amounts of rain in winter (not fall). Mostly starting in december but generally the worst in January and February. Is this what SoCal people remember or is this not the case?

I don't remember exactly when the rains hit in 97-98, but from what I'm reading you're getting the right idea. I wouldn't put money on it though because I just don't understand how it all works beyond what I read in the occasional news article I found this article http://www.scientificamerican.com/a...st-brings-california-hope-for-drought-relief/ to be quite interesting on the topic. Their conclusion is that El Nino makes CA's wet season wetter, and winter is the wet season here. What I found most enlightening though is that we can have an El Nino with the storms STILL missing CA! (See "Battle of the Jet Streams").

 

[beachdreamr1229]

Is there anything interesting to do at the onsite hotels in the rain? I'm a local, so I could always cancel and not be heartbroken, but my twins turn 2 in January and it's sort of a tradition in my family to do an onsite stay for kids' 2nd birthdays. I usually don't spend much time in the hotels though. If we went and the rains get as bad as I know they do in a true El Nino, I'm just curious if there's anything to keep the kids occupied. I know PPH has that little area where kids can watch cartoons, but is there anything else?