Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[CarolMN]

You've pretty much confirmed the work drusba has been doing for the past 3-4 years:

Availability post by drusba

The pattern hasn't changed much - except IMO, it's getting even harder to book the near-park resorts and less expensive categories at 7 months for stays during October - New Year's.

 

[skier_pete]

You've pretty much confirmed the work drusba has been doing for the past 3-4 years:

Availability post by drusba

The pattern hasn't changed much - except IMO, it's getting even harder to book the near-park resorts and less expensive categories at 7 months for stays during October - New Year's.

Yes - I've seen his post before, and it's fantastic and very accurate. I read that very early when I started working on this, and was not surprised to see the patterns bear out as he described.

What I found missing from that was the degrees of availability I was looking to capture. Resorts don't go directly from full availability to no availability. (Well, VGC does.) I wanted to try and see how quickly that occurred and also give people the ability to ask "what's my chances of getting such-and-such at this time out".

One thing I noticed that isn't really captured on the table that drusba mentions is that there is really no evidence that weekdays book up any faster than weekends. In fact, I would say generally weekends now book up slightly ahead of weekdays, but not by a noticeable amount.

 

[ToddyLu]

Finally, someone who possibly loves (I use the term loosely) the resort availability tool, or simply the logistics people use to have a DVC vacation, as much as I do...it is fascinating to watch it fluctuate during the course of a weeks time. I just booked a value studio at AKV. Got my Fri-Fri week 5/6/16-5/13/16 at 0700 ( Central time) then at 0707 checked back to see and 5/6 was gone!!

You work is awesome and I always love seeing the posts by drusba

 

[crisi]

One thing I noticed that isn't really captured on the table that drusba mentions is that there is really no evidence that weekdays book up any faster than weekends. In fact, I would say generally weekends now book up slightly ahead of weekdays, but not by a noticeable amount.

That's changed with the point reallocation that was done about five years ago - its taken a little bit for people's travel patterns to catch up....but it used to be SO much cheaper to book midweek that the "normal" DVC travel pattern was to check in on Sunday and check out on Friday. For a while, even after the reallocation, people didn't change their habits, but its done what it was supposed to do.

 

[tasha99]

Amazing--and it's matched what I've seen in my limited bookings. Thank you!

 

[pangyal]

This is an absolute gold star piece of work. Thank you so much for sharing, this will actually be incredibly helpful in figuring out whether we would ever want to buy into a different resort in order to have a chance at certain popular times!

 

[freediverdude]

Thanks everyone for all the positive feedback! I'm glad to have other folks using this!



Too much time on my hands? No way. I did it in bits and pieces when I found the time. I wish I had more time and could do the whole gamut of room styles, but towards the end it just got tedious.

I hardly remember now why I started working on it, but I think it really was to understand how difficult each resort was to get into at the 7-month mark. I started out doing just the 7-month table, but then the new resort availability tool came out, and I decided to go back to the 11-month point for each resort, which made it take longer than a year. The information that really surprised me is how easy it is to get into most of the resorts at 7-months from January - September. Even relatively new resorts like BLT.

It really is all about Oct-Dec isn't it, sigh. Which is fine with me, I don't normally go during those months. I prefer Sept, May, or August even, when the evenings are still warm. Which means I probably should have just purchased OKW or SSR instead of the Poly, lol. I just really don't want to stay at SSR though, and would be happy if I only got to stay at the Poly.

 

[skier_pete]

It really is all about Oct-Dec isn't it, sigh. Which is fine with me, I don't normally go during those months. I prefer Sept, May, or August even, when the evenings are still warm. Which means I probably should have just purchased OKW or SSR instead of the Poly, lol. I just really don't want to stay at SSR though, and would be happy if I only got to stay at the Poly.

Well, if the Poly is what you like, then you are not wrong to buy there. My feel for the Poly is that it will be hard to get into for the first few years, but once owners start realizing they want something more than a studio - and that they can get 1-bedrooms at other resorts for not much more points than a studio at the poly, they'll branch out quite a bit, and I think 5 years from now the Poly will be actually one of the easier resorts to get in to at 7-months. However, your Poly points will likely retain a lot of resale value anyways. If I were you, I would hold onto those Poly points through these early years, and then take a closer look at your needs once the Poly "settles into a groove". (It's quite possible I am wrong on this, and the Poly remains a tough get for many years like the VGF seems like it will.) At that point, you can always sell your Poly points and buy SSR, trading in the cost difference into your pocket - or buy additional points in the exchange.

 

[jodifla]

Wow, this is great! Thanks for all of your effort.

 

[crisi]

It really is all about Oct-Dec isn't it, sigh. Which is fine with me, I don't normally go during those months. I prefer Sept, May, or August even, when the evenings are still warm. Which means I probably should have just purchased OKW or SSR instead of the Poly, lol. I just really don't want to stay at SSR though, and would be happy if I only got to stay at the Poly.

Then you did the right thing. We don't have any idea what the future will bring for Disney - and frankly, your patterns might change too. When we bought out BWV ownership, Food and Wine didn't start until the week after our normal October vacation. A standard view room was easy to get. It was extended into early October - and now we have to scramble for that room....BUT, our kids got older and we ended up moving dates anyway out of the school year. And now they are in high school and there isn't room to fit a vacation in at all between activities, sports and academics.

 

[zavandor]

It's an amazing job, thank you. I'm glad I booked a Value room at AKV for my first DVC reservation nearly 3 years ago, it looks like that even in September my chances are now over.

 

[han22735]

Thanks for this. Obviously it was a ton of work so I appreciate it!!

 

[hardis5]

Great detail that will come in handy when planning and where likely to be able to book. The effort is much appreciated.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

OMG! What an eye opener! We own at BCV with a Feb UY and usually book 1BRs. We go in spring & fall. Never really worried about a last minute cancellation in the fall 'cause I thought that since the end of our UY was Jan (slow season except for a few days) and we were booking the least popular room type we'd have no real issue getting in at our home resort. Can see now that is not the case. Thanks a million!

 

[bobbiwoz]

Thank you for all the work you did and for sharing!

I definitely need more VGF points!

 

[myrheille]

Thanks a lot for doing this!

 

[PrincessPiperMommy]

This is great! thank you

 

[jlsmith376]

Thank you for the hard work! This is a great reference!

 

[ziravan]

Awesome.

 

[Mil leech]

Thank you for all this hard work!! This confirms my purchase of BLT for my standard studios, BCV for studios at F&W and VGC any time! I purchased with the "buy where you want to stay philosophy" and it looks like with my travel habits, it was the best idea.

You really put a lot of time and work into this and it is appreciated!