Riviera Resale

[CastAStone]

No they did not. Only one board member said they bought it back several years ago. that was the only one reported

It was a few people:

I got my deposit back in the mail today (dated 2/23), so I guess Disney took it :-( I just emailed the broker to confirm

They haven't really been ROFR'ing PVB contracts, but I saw this one on another message board the other day which made me nervous. She said her broker was shocked because they hadn't had a PVB taken in forever. I'm also surprised since it doesn't have most of the 2017 points, but I guess they needed that unit to combine with something they already had.

PVB, June (300) 2017 - 47, 2018 - 300, $128/pt, sent 1/23/18, TAKEN 2/16/18 - Fidelity

Rob Huff---$125-$19159-140-PVB-Dec-0/16, 280/17, 140/18, 140/19- sent 1/29, TAKEN 2/21

I'm not surprised -- the deal was almost too good to be true -- but I'm still disappointed.

Time to start all over again.

disneylovinfamilyof6---$134-$22592-160-PVB-Apr-0/17, 169/18, 160/19-Seller pays all CC- sent 2/1

Taken Ugh - such a bummer!!!!! Glad our other Poly snuck through.

disneylovinfamilyof6---$134-$22592-160-PVB-Apr-0/17, 169/18, 160/19-Seller pays all CC- sent 2/1, taken 2/28


On a positive note, we signed closing docs on our BCV add on today - that deal has moved lightening fast!

 

[RoseGold]

Interesting. In mid 2019, my very large broker said at the time they had never seen Disney ROFR Poly, but that they did expect them to start any minute and said my contract might get taken.

My contract was along the lines of those too... So I'm surprised it didn't get taken.

 

[CastAStone]

Interesting. In mid 2019, my very large broker said at the time they had never seen Disney ROFR Poly, but that they did expect them to start any minute and said my contract might get taken.

My contract was along the lines of those too... So I'm surprised it didn't get taken.

They were all taken in a period of a few weeks. As such, I'm guessing there was a very specific reason they bought them. What that reason was, I wouldn't dare to hazard a guess.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

https://www.dvcstore.com/prices.htm

DVCSTORE.com stats on resale, $140, $100 and $109.

Another site https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/rivieraresort/ has 4 RIV contracts for sale, ranging from 160 points to 250 points. Some of the contracts are stripped. No points till 2022, but all are listed at $145 pp. 2 of the contracts have a error, they are listed as a 160 point contract but only have 80 points left for 2022. We are currently in 2020 use year and you can only borrow from 2021. So are they 160 point contracts or 80 point contracts.

listing price and selling price can be two different things. Listing price may also be high due to loans that must be paid off.

 

[poofyo101]

It was a few people:

Sorry for the misinformation. Was before my DVC time. I just remember this topic a few months ago and one person had said it was ROFRd from them a few years ago.

 

[Disneygal22]

I would if when Riviera is full sold out, we will be able to demand more PP when we sell?

 

[RoseGold]

I would if when Riviera is full sold out, we will be able to demand more PP when we sell?

VGF and Poly resale held value incredibly and kept increasing because all DVC was escalating at the same time, well, and location compared to the lackluster planned properties. It's hard to attribute that to sell out.

Nobody knows what RIV resale will do, but I doubt selling out is what will matter. It's not like anybody missed their chance at direct. At this rate, it will hang around like Aulani's bad hangover for sell out and significant RIV resale will be going on a long time before sell out.

 

[sethschroeder]

At this rate

It was easily outselling CCV until midway through the shutdown. RIV also was on pace with VGF and actually picking up speed before shutdowns.

It also has rebounded quicker than I think most of us expected also with all direct sales. They actually recorded for all Direct last month more points than December 2015 as an example.

All we are doing right now is primarily delaying the graph continuation from January/February this year until sometime next year. You will have 9-12 months of lower sales until we start getting park capacity back closer to normal (excluding foreign tour groups) next Summer/Fall.

 

[RoseGold]

Realize Riviera has 6 million+ points. A 100,000 points per month pace means selling out in 5+ years, which I guarantee is significantly below the target. Not a disaster by any means(a la Aulani's 14 year sell-out), but likely a real concern for those in DVC management. (Poly had 5 million points and sold out in 2.5 years.)

This is Skier Pete, from Dec 2019. Even then, it looked like many years. Obviously, it looks worse now, though direct sales at reopen were better than I expected, for sure. But even those are currently at a rate less than 50K points per month, ouch.

 

[sethschroeder]

This is Skier Pete, from Dec 2019. Even then, it looked like many years. Obviously, it looks worse now, though direct sales at reopen were better than I expected, for sure. But even those are currently at a rate less than 50K points per month, ouch.

They were 21% sold out after 12 months of sales and were on pace to sell out in 48 months prior to COVID19. That is with 75% of that time being PRIOR to the resort opening and with CCV still selling a good portion of points most of last year.

Like I said before we went from selling out in 3-4 years to 4-5 years.

You can even see from @i<3riviera chart it was just starting to increase in volume after the resort opened before they shut everything down.

 

[CastAStone]

This is Skier Pete, from Dec 2019. Even then, it looked like many years. Obviously, it looks worse now, though direct sales at reopen were better than I expected, for sure. But even those are currently at a rate less than 50K points per month, ouch.

Yes, Riviera's biggest resale problem long term I think will not be the point charts or the dues or even the resale restrictions but instead the sheer number of points. If it was a 2.5 million point resort with the resale restrictions, point charts, and dues, I think supply and demand could still find a happy medium. I think the supply and demand balance with ~6.5 million resale points will a a lot lower.

 

[sethschroeder]

Yes, Riviera's biggest resale problem long term I think will not be the point charts or the dues or even the resale restrictions but instead the sheer number of points. If it was a 2.5 million point resort with the resale restrictions, point charts, and dues, I think supply and demand could still find a happy medium. I think the supply and demand balance with ~6.5 million resale points will a a lot lower.

Pulled from another source so people have an idea where 6.5m points fits in.

Riviera is number 5 for the most points and sits between BLT and AKV.

Resort	Total Points	Rank
Animal Kingdom Villas	7,399,244	#4​
Aulani	11,519,025	#2​
Beach Club Villas	3,027,124	#10​
Bay Lake Tower	5,732,762	#6​
Boardwalk Villas	4,888,837	#7​
Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge	1,961,969	#12​
Copper Creek Cabin & Villas	3,321,966	#9​
Hilton Head Island	1,368,962	#14​
Old Key West	7,674,852	#3​
Polynesian Villas and Bungalows	4,032,720	#8​
Saratoga Springs Resort	14,029,319	#1​
Vero Beach	1,616,438	#13​
Villas at Grand Californian	1,136,865	#15​
Villas at Grand Floridian	2,520,379	#11​

 

[RoseGold]

There's a reason Disney has (temporarily) scrapped Reflections.

There's still like 4.5M points left to sell. At 50,000/month (the pre-Covid rate), that's another 7.5 years, 9.5 years total. Ouch. Maybe it sells twice as fast, and is at another 4 years. That's a really long time. Plenty of RIV resale will be going by then.

 

[sethschroeder]

There's a reason Disney has (temporarily) scrapped Reflections.

There's still like 4.5M points left to sell. At 50,000/month (the pre-Covid rate), that's another 7.5 years, 9.5 years total. Ouch. Maybe it sells twice as fast, and is at another 4 years. That's a really long time. Plenty of RIV resale will be going by then.

They scratched it because of being shutdown for months, DVC sales to be suppressed for a while, and them having DL Tower coming out in a couple years. Actively selling two new resorts at the same time are not what they want to plan for in a potential recession. Its early enough to pull the plug and always pick it up and make it a priority later. DL Tower won't be sold out until 2024 at the earliest likely so they could pick up reflections in 2022/23 and likely have it in the sales pipeline by the time DL Tower sells out.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Yes, Riviera's biggest resale problem long term I think will not be the point charts or the dues or even the resale restrictions but instead the sheer number of points. If it was a 2.5 million point resort with the resale restrictions, point charts, and dues, I think supply and demand could still find a happy medium. I think the supply and demand balance with ~6.5 million resale points will a a lot lower.

I think that factors in quite a bit in resale. Number of points in the resort and number of owners. The more there are the odds say the more contracts for sale. When there's more for sale there's a some competitive pressure. As you say - supply and demand.

Then you start tossing in other nuances such as the restrictions which means they definitely aren't sleep around points and are going to be a negative check in most resale buyers columns. They will have to sell to someone that wants to always stay there vs other resorts that will have appeal to the audience that likes a particular resort but also would like the ability to try other locations. You are cutting out part of the buyers that otherwise would keep any DVC resort on the purchase table.

 

[sethschroeder]

I think that factors in quite a bit in resale. Number of points in the resort and number of owners. The more there are the odds say the more contracts for sale. When there's more for sale there's a some competitive pressure. As you say - supply and demand.

Then you start tossing in other nuances such as the restrictions which means they definitely aren't sleep around points and are going to be a negative check in most resale buyers columns. They will have to sell to someone that wants to always stay there vs other resorts that will have appeal to the audience that likes a particular resort but also would like the ability to try other locations. You are cutting out part of the buyers that otherwise would keep any DVC resort on the purchase table.

I think something many people are unable to really comprehend is how drastically the view of resale is going to change in 10-15 years as the BWV/BCV contracts slowly progress to expiration. "Try other locations" is not in the long term going be an option. You have to own RIV 15-20 years though to get to that point.

Right now SAPs prop of value of resorts like SSR, OKW, and AKV. In the future though as MK becomes the only park adjacent options will people still value those SAPs if they become even harder to book especially as resorts like BCV/BWV/BRV all expire?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I think something many people are unable to really comprehend is how drastically the view of resale is going to change in 10-15 years as the BWV/BCV contracts slowly progress to expiration. "Try other locations" is not in the long term going be an option. You have to own RIV 15-20 years though to get to that point.

Right now SAPs prop of value of resorts like SSR, OKW, and AKV. In the future though as MK becomes the only park adjacent options will people still value those SAPs if they become even harder to book especially as resorts like BCV/BWV/BRV all expire?

I don't know what will happen with BWV or BCV but I think odds are high it will be something with DVC assuming it is still expanding at that time. Still, the market will correct for years left and pricing adjustments will mean they could be popular right up until the end. 21-22 years, not 10 years and a high percentage of people won't own their DVC that long.

 

[sethschroeder]

I don't know what will happen with BWV or BCV but I think odds are high it will be something with DVC assuming it is still expanding at that time. Still, the market will correct for years left and pricing adjustments will mean they could be popular right up until the end. 21-22 years, not 10 years and a high percentage of people won't own their DVC that long.

Correct but if today I said if you buy at SSR you can't stay at Epcot in 10 years time you don't think that directly would impact who might buy in for that?

My point is not the price of those resorts my point is the price of all the other resorts being impacted because they are going to lose access to all DVC resorts around 50% of the parks.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Correct but if today I said if you buy at SSR you can't stay at Epcot in 10 years time you don't think that directly would impact who might buy in for that?

My point is not the price of those resorts my point is the price of all the other resorts being impacted because they are going to lose access to all DVC resorts around 50% of the parks.

A lot will depend on the price at least for some. As far as pricing being impacted down the line it's going to happen to every single one of the resorts. The market should adjust to compensate for lesser years just as it may adjust for being locked into 1 resort.

For the SSR example it's still a lot more resorts for the resale buyer than the Riviera resale buyer.

 

[i<3riviera]

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