Riviera Resale

[CastAStone]

I think something many people are unable to really comprehend is how drastically the view of resale is going to change in 10-15 years as the BWV/BCV contracts slowly progress to expiration. "Try other locations" is not in the long term going be an option. You have to own RIV 15-20 years though to get to that point.

Right now SAPs prop of value of resorts like SSR, OKW, and AKV. In the future though as MK becomes the only park adjacent options will people still value those SAPs if they become even harder to book especially as resorts like BCV/BWV/BRV all expire?

I don't think its that we can't comprehend it, we just don't think its that big of a deal. Staying at an Epcot resort is nice but its not the be all end all for most people, who from anecdotal experience on these boards, are wishy-washy about which resort to buy in the first place.

And while I agree that trading at 7 months will become ever harder until SSR expires, it won't lock up entirely.

 

[sethschroeder]

I don't think its that we can't comprehend it, we just don't think its that big of a deal. Staying at an Epcot resort is nice but its not the be all end all for most people, who from anecdotal experience on these boards, are wishy-washy about which resort to buy in the first place.

And while I agree that trading at 7 months will become ever harder until SSR expires, it won't lock up entirely.

You are losing a significant percentage of bookable rooms in the most sought after location within DVC (Epcot/MK area).

For total rooms just at WDW:
4679 total rooms in the resorts without restrictions
25% at MK
17% at Epcot
13% at AK
44% at SSR/OKW

In 2042:
20% of rooms will expire (all near MK/Epcot)
28% of rooms by MK
0% of rooms by Epcot
16% of rooms by AK
56% of rooms at SSR/OKW
14% loss of rooms by MK/Epcot (SSR/OKW rooms increase by 27% of total pool of rooms)


There are currently 25,485,757 points in resorts next to MK or EPCOT without resale restrictions:
39% of points pool that are next to MK/EPCOT will expire
100% of points pool that are next to EPCOT will expire in 2042
17% of points pool that are next to MK will expire in 2042

Currently there are 70,230,462 points in resorts without resale restrictions:
25% of points are next to MK
11% of points are next to Epcot
11% of points are next to AK
31% of points are OKW/SSR

In 2042 there will be 57,367,132 points left in resorts without resale restrictions:
23% of points will be next to MK
0% of points will be next to Epcot
13% of points will be next to AK
38% of points will be OKW/SSR
13% loss of points by MK/EPCOT

 

[CastAStone]

You are losing a significant percentage of bookable rooms in the most sought after location within DVC (Epcot/MK area).

For total rooms just at WDW:
4679 total rooms in the resorts without restrictions
25% at MK
17% at Epcot
13% at AK
44% at SSR/OKW

In 2042:
20% of rooms will expire (all near MK/Epcot)
28% of rooms by MK
0% of rooms by Epcot
16% of rooms by AK
56% of rooms at SSR/OKW
14% loss of rooms by MK/Epcot (SSR/OKW rooms increase by 27% of total pool of rooms)


There are currently 25,485,757 points in resorts next to MK or EPCOT without resale restrictions:
39% of points pool that are next to MK/EPCOT will expire
100% of points pool that are next to EPCOT will expire in 2042
17% of points pool that are next to MK will expire in 2042

Currently there are 70,230,462 points in resorts without resale restrictions:
25% of points are next to MK
11% of points are next to Epcot
11% of points are next to AK
31% of points are OKW/SSR

In 2042 there will be 57,367,132 points left in resorts without resale restrictions:
23% of points will be next to MK
0% of points will be next to Epcot
13% of points will be next to AK
38% of points will be OKW/SSR
13% loss of points by MK/EPCOT

All true but it doesn’t change the fact that whoever is first at 8am at 7 months gets the rooms (assuming nothing changes with booking in the next 21 years, which of course it will).

What you’re selling me on is that in 2042 BLT VGF and Poly will increase in value vis-a-vis the resorts expiring in the 2050s; I think that’s inevitable. But I don’t see what that has to do with Riviera, either in it’s attractiveness to people in 2030-2041, or its attractiveness to people in 2042 and beyond.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

They were all taken in a period of a few weeks. As such, I'm guessing there was a very specific reason they bought them. What that reason was, I wouldn't dare to hazard a guess.

Speculation of increased request for direct points before blue card minimum increases to 125

 

[CastAStone]

Speculation of increased request for direct points before blue card minimum increases to 125

That comment you quoted was in regards to Poly contracts ROFRd in 2018.

 

[sethschroeder]

All true but it doesn’t change the fact that whoever is first at 8am at 7 months gets the rooms (assuming nothing changes with booking in the next 21 years, which of course it will).

Which will then have places like this pushing more on "buy where you want to stay" which locks down reservation further.

But I don’t see what that has to do with Riviera

The point is always SAP points will slowly become less and less pushed as a primary method as the ability to book at 7 months continues to get much more difficult in the future. Something like resale restrictions will simply not matter as much in the future. Instead people will split their points among the resorts they choose to stay at and do split stays or bank/borrow more likely.

Its seems to be a fairly consistent message that 7 month booking keeps getting harder.

 

[CastAStone]

The point is always SAP points will slowly become less and less pushed as a primary method as the ability to book at 7 months continues to get much more difficult in the future. Something like resale restrictions will simply not matter as much in the future

I think the magnitude of this will be moderate. The ability to sleep in any studio you want drops from 8 months a year to 6 months, say, and the ability to stay in any 1BR you want drops from 11.5 months to 9 or 10 months per year. Riviera will still be 0 months a year. As @Dean pointed out the other day, most SSR owners are already SAPers, or at least very promiscuous. And every Riviera resale owner takes a contract OUT of the 7 month pool. And you’ll always be able to trade any resort in for SSR, OKW, AKV, or AUL, any resort that is, except Riviera.

 

[sethschroeder]

most SSR owners are already SAPers

This is not a fact and we have zero tangible information regarding this just assumptions. Flip side we do have qualitative data points regarding the movement of needing to book further and further out from your trip as well as availability per resort.

We also do have a fact that 14% of rooms will shift from "primary" WDW locations to "secondary" locations for DVC. I can't imagine a 14% reduction in room breakdown by location would not cause a much tighter pinch on primary locations.

Riviera will still be 0 months a year.

Again missing my point the Riviera resale owner will 100% be staying at a Epcot resort and the resale owner elsewhere will 100% never stay at any Epcot resort. People will ignore the resale restrictions more because in order to stay in the Epcot area you will need to purchase direct or RIV resale. If Disney builds a YCV, BWV 2.0, BCV 2.0 those will all be more expensive to purchasing a RIV resale (with likely higher point charts/MFs based simply on how DVC works over time of ever increasing point charts/MFs).

Currently 17% of rooms (non inclusive of RIV) are at Epcot and are gone on 7 months in the studio category most of the year. Even 2BRs in the Epcot area are gone as well.

Part of this has to do with point charts and part of this has to do with it being Epcot area resorts. In the end there is a group which has a contract specifically for booking an Epcot resort already. Also Epcot is only getting further investment from Disney to being the festival center of Disney World which can always change though with removal of festivals or addition of 5th gate.

 

[Sandisw]

This is not a fact and we have zero tangible information regarding this just assumptions. Flip side we do have qualitative data points regarding the movement of needing to book further and further out from your trip as well as availability per resort.

We also do have a fact that 14% of rooms will shift from "primary" WDW locations to "secondary" locations for DVC. I can't imagine a 14% reduction in room breakdown by location would not cause a much tighter pinch on primary locations.



Again missing my point the Riviera resale owner will 100% be staying at a Epcot resort and the resale owner elsewhere will 100% never stay at any Epcot resort. People will ignore the resale restrictions more because in order to stay in the Epcot area you will need to purchase direct or RIV resale. If Disney builds a YCV, BWV 2.0, BCV 2.0 those will all be more expensive to purchasing a RIV resale (with likely higher point charts/MFs based simply on how DVC works over time of ever increasing point charts/MFs).

Currently 17% of rooms (non inclusive of RIV) are at Epcot and are gone on 7 months in the studio category most of the year. Even 2BRs in the Epcot area are gone as well.

Part of this has to do with point charts and part of this has to do with it being Epcot area resorts. In the end there is a group which has a contract specifically for booking an Epcot resort already. Also Epcot is only getting further investment from Disney to being the festival center of Disney World which can always change though with removal of festivals or addition of 5th gate.

Let’s not forget that those Epcot resorts will surely be DVC and It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

But, I do think the notion of SAPs for near park resorts for resale buyers will most likely be less of a thing when the 2042 resorts become part of the new DVC.

Given though, this is 22 years in the future, i don’t see anything to curb it for quite awhile. And, of course, something people could consider is buying those SAP through Disney just to ensure they can use them at the new Epcot resorts later on,

Right now, you are talking about $60 a point so maybe it’s something to consider when deciding to add on resale vs direct?

 

[Spark65]

Not to ruin a perfectly good thread but I haven't seen anyone enter the possibility of the future timeshare market because of Covid. There is no historical data to be used for calculations either. To be honest I am still surprised that the real estate market here in MA stills seems to be chugging along as well the DVC sales to be chugging along as well.

The real question is how many long time owners actually thought their initial investment would return a profit with resales? Regardless of all the critics I see RIV resale prices retaining a better value in the future than most here agree with.

 

[Sandisw]

Not to ruin a perfectly good thread but I haven't seen anyone enter the possibility of the future timeshare market because of Covid. There is no historical data to be used for calculations either. To be honest I am still surprised that the real estate market here in MA stills seems to be chugging along as well the DVC sales to be chugging along as well.

The real question is how many long time owners actually thought their initial investment would return a profit with resales? Regardless of all the critics I see RIV resale prices retaining a better value in the future than most here agree with.

It certainly has shocked me. I figured it would crash to $100 or less immediately.

 

[CastAStone]

Not to ruin a perfectly good thread but I haven't seen anyone enter the possibility of the future timeshare market because of Covid. There is no historical data to be used for calculations either. To be honest I am still surprised that the real estate market here in MA stills seems to be chugging along as well the DVC sales to be chugging along as well.

The real question is how many long time owners actually thought their initial investment would return a profit with resales? Regardless of all the critics I see RIV resale prices retaining a better value in the future than most here agree with.

I imagine that once there’s a consistent supply of RIV contracts on the market, a price will be settled into. So far they’ve been still pretty uncommon, and if you’re trying to match a UY, you might be tempted to grab what you see.

 

[striker1064]

Correct but if today I said if you buy at SSR you can't stay at Epcot in 10 years time you don't think that directly would impact who might buy in for that?

My point is not the price of those resorts my point is the price of all the other resorts being impacted because they are going to lose access to all DVC resorts around 50% of the parks.

This is some interesting whataboutism because it's simply not true today - you can buy SSR resale and still have access to Epcot resorts for another 21 years. So I think I'm missing the point here... but in 2042 SSR resale will still have access to more resorts than RIV resale (or any other future resort resale) will.

I know I have seen other posts here and there that SSR was marketed new as the ultimate "buy here and use your points elsewhere" property, and now that's hurting. But Disney seems to at least have some understanding of that with the drastic refurb to the resort, and now it's becoming more popular for actual stays. But I still think it's pretty disingenuous to say most people who buy SSR to use as SAP intend to use them at an Epcot property... that's a bit of a leap. I also still maintain that investing today's dollars into a product like a time share because of what might happen in 20+ years is a bit of a stretch. None of us could have guessed RIV would have restrictions until it did. Who knows what DVC will look like when BWV/BCV are expiring.

 

[sethschroeder]

This is some interesting whataboutism because it's simply not true today - you can buy SSR resale and still have access to Epcot resorts for another 21 years.

Except we are directly talking about future state. I stated right off the bat its based on needing to hold RIV for 15-20 years before this future state starts to kick in. If you choose to not talk about long term projection this thread would not be for you.

So if I need to repeat it again we are not talking about turning around and selling in 10 years if there is even a remote chance you do that then buy resale and save your money. Instead we are talking about 15-20 years from now with evaluating the 2042 expiration on access/availability.

So I think I'm missing the point here... but in 2042 SSR resale will still have access to more resorts than RIV resale

Ummm no you completely are missing my point that zero Epcot resorts will be left to resale. Yet there will be individuals who specifically only want to stay around Epcot or want to at least sometimes stay around Epcot. Their outlet will be 2.0 resorts at more expensive BWV/BCV or a lower cost RIV.

disingenuous to say most people who buy SSR to use as SAP intend to use them at an Epcot property

When did I say this because I didn't. I am saying the resale marketing is losing access to the 17% of rooms that today fall around Epcot. I am fairly safe in my thinking that at least 5% of the resale membership would want to stay at Epcot at they would have zero outlet to do so. At that point they will make a decision on where to buy and Riviera as a lower cost option will be an outlet for some.

Again can anyone tell me that no one wants to stay in the Epcot area each year?

I did outline that in general I believed SSR is going to get more people who want to use the points for SAP instead of buying to stay there (especially as SSR becomes cheaper in comparison to other resorts on resale - AKV with their bump in pricing as of late as an example skewing math more towards SSR).

I also still maintain that investing today's dollars into a product like a time share because of what might happen in 20+ years is a bit of a stretch

Well you shouldn't expect any money back out of a timeshare.

Also it is not necessarily a 20+ year problem. Every year BWV/BCV gets closer to expiration and more people will think about their long term plans. Do they just buy BWV, do they buy BLT, do they buy RIV on the resale market or possibly do they buy 50% BLT and 50% RIV. This is all meant to explore potential future outcomes because if you are not directly locked in for the next 15-20 years then don't buy direct period.

In the end another thing often glossed over is the price differences of direct vs resale for what you will be purchasing. Buying POLY at $245/point for 150 points and turning around and resale is around $140 right now ($105 loss) while you can look at RIV for 150 points at $180 or $170 and you would be down to a resale price of $65-$75/point on the resale market to come out to the same price.

 

[Doberge]

What's the SAP acronym stand for? From context I understand they're cheap points people use stay at resorts other than the home resort but I have no idea what S A and P are.

 

[CastAStone]

I gave this topic an undeserved amount of thought last night and I think the floor for the price that Riviera resale ultimately settles at in 2-3 years is probably about $20 below SSR and the ceiling is about $20 above SSR. Right now I'd say SSR is $100 so if that holds, I'd be surprised to see Riviera below $80 or above $120.

It's just hard to me to see it in the $70s when at the end of the day it will still have value as a place to stay at WDW. I do think ultimately the price to stay there on cash will come down vs other Deluxe Villas, but for now, when comparing to cash at $75 it's too good of a bargain for most people to pass up.

Similarly, with it's punitive points chart and inability to use resale points to stay at other resorts with more favorable points charts, I have a lot of trouble seeing it settle long term above $120. The point charts and the location near Epcot* should cause it's price to settle below the cheapest MK resorts, which are BLT and CCV (I'm not counting BRV due to years remaining).

My best guess is that 24 months from now, it will sell for an average of about $5 below whatever SSR is selling for at that time.

*Cash prices for Crescent Lake resorts are meaningfully below the prices for Monorail resorts.

 

[CastAStone]

What's the SAP acronym stand for? From context I understand they're cheap points people use stay at resorts other than the home resort but I have no idea what S A and P are.

Sleep Around Points.

 

[striker1064]

Except we are directly talking about future state. I stated right off the bat its based on needing to hold RIV for 15-20 years before this future state starts to kick in. If you choose to not talk about long term projection this thread would not be for you.

So I've spent far more time thinking about this than I should. If we are talking about future state, it does not make sense to me to buy RIV right now over something like BWV. I would not pay...

• 11% more in dues
• For a standard room that's 40% more points, or
• A preferred room that's 11% more points

Solely so that I can have non-bus access to Epcot in 22 years and beyond.

Which leads me to the final point...

Ummm no you completely are missing my point that zero Epcot resorts will be left to resale.

RIV will be available resale when BCV/BWV expire.

 

[sethschroeder]

So I've spent far more time thinking about this than I should. If we are talking about future state, it does not make sense to me to buy RIV right now over something like BWV. I would not pay...

• 11% more in dues
• For a standard room that's 40% more points, or
• A preferred room that's 11% more points

Solely so that I can have non-bus access to Epcot in 22 years and beyond.

Which leads me to the final point...



RIV will be available resale when BCV/BWV expire.

(I own at BWV)

Remember we are talking about direct purchasing here as the initial investment. There is zero comparison between BWV Resale vs RIV Direct, just buy BWV at that point if you don't care about direct benefits.

Right now BWV is $200 / $115 resale and RIV is $195 / $170-$180 @150 points / $155-$165 @300 points
*I bought RIV at $155/point

Also since you brought up MFs you do need to account for the yearly annual cost of the initial investment used. Each point at BWV @$200 is worth $9.52/point as an example where as the RIV points @$195 is worth $3.98/point (at $3.16/point for my purchase). Now this is just part of the total equation since MFs, cash out price, room point charts all matter as well.

In 22 years

• You can sell the RIV contract vs BWV would be worth $0
  • RIV at maybe $75/point low end in todays dollars (which would be $15-$20/point less than SSR right now with roughly the same time left)
• RIV your direct benefits continue vs BWV your direct benefits expired
• If you exclusively will stay and able to get BWV STD Studio/2BR then BWV is going to save you lots of points (1BR BWV Std more likely can be had at 7 months if you are flexible when you travel)
• RIV you continue to pay MFs vs BWV you are now required to come up with another upfront lump sum to buy a contract (direct BWV or RIV Resale - which then decides if you get direct benefits back)
• Future state MFs will continue to be a difference and I would expect RIV to drop more around 5%-8% over BWV but that can always change you are talking about $150 extra on annual MFs of $1105.50 at BWV (as of 2020)
• RIV more points upfront vs BWV able to reduce upfront costs through less points (more points do give you the benefit of easier options if you do move resorts)

The major benefit out of RIV is the length of contract and have a singular upfront cost. Yes people can add-on but that is really a separate conversation than talking about rebuying the points.

Just a quick bit of napkin math if I have the 150 points points and was paying an extra $150/yr for the next 21 years I would have paid an extra $3150 in MFs during that time. I am fairly certain I can sell 150 RIV points for $21/point in 2042 to get that money back.

Even if you want to discount possibly a 125 points at BWV vs 150 at RIV. Upfront for new member its BWV $21k vs RIV $27k so $7k more upfront and $7k more in MFs roughly we are now talking about needing to sell RIV for $93/point in 2041 to come out close to a breakeven. All of this math is missing inflation and things though.

I perfectly see why someone would buy BWV over RIV I just don't think its as bad as some want to make it out as especially if you are buying a bigger number of points with the extra incentives in place.

 

[sethschroeder]

What's the SAP acronym stand for? From context I understand they're cheap points people use stay at resorts other than the home resort but I have no idea what S A and P are.

What @CastAStone outlined. Its basically points that you buy at a resort that you really never plan on staying at or rarely plan on staying at. The goal is to just get the cheapest points possible and get a room for whatever is available at 7 months. It can work well for 1BRs right now, 2BRs can be more challenging, and Studios can be extremely difficult or impossible at certain times of the year.

The opposite view is buy where you want to stay to avoid any disappointment you might have at 7 months if you can't get the exact resort you want.

Normal SSR, OKW, and AKV are viewed as the best options for SAP.