To Buy 2042 or not to buy 2042

[Cfabar1]

When was the last time Disney built a new resort on property that wasn’t DVC or didn’t have a DVC component?

I think they are recognizing that DVC is a great way to fill demand, and much less risky than cash stays.

It does worry me for the future of the resort and the hotels on property…. Did these hotels ever fill up? Or were they always half empty, even during the Disney decade?

I know that Disney hotels were always expensive, but I recall their prices being less outrageous than today’s rates… I wonder if that is my misperception, or just a factor in my mind.

Also, in 2042 highly unlikely those points charts stay the way they are - especially for BC and BW…. Meaning they will have to sell even more than 20 million points…. That’s assuming they keep the same number of units, the properties as they are, etc. Disney is emphasizing occupancy above all else… Maybe they will decrease inventory to boost occupancy…. It’s all still so far away, who knows what they will do….

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

This thread is making me want to pull the trigger on BCV, because we love Crescent Lake, Epcot, and SAB—but I’m also thinking that as long as the resale market stays weak and sellers don’t want to accept selling BCV below $150, it should be pretty easy to rent BCV points for occasional stays at very popular times and I can use my other longer dated resort points for less crowded times.

As I understand it, you can rent points at about $20/pt and dues are about $8/pt— so you’re making back $12 a year owning…if you purchase BCV at $145/pt (plus fees!) that’s at least 12 years to break even if you don’t consider that your money could be making 5% each year risk free…which I think would stretch you pretty close to the end of the contract life. BWV has been going closer to $100/pt, which makes a little more sense.

 

[jpwilsoninc]

“buy where you want to stay” i have decided is really only a line for people who want studios. If you do 1BR or even 2 BR there are a ton of WDW options at 7 months. In that case the pure “economics” of it warrant a purchase at SSR or Aulani. VB’s economics per year are about the same as SSR if you can get sub $43 per point

 

[intamin]

“buy where you want to stay” i have decided is really only a line for people who want studios. If you do 1BR or even 2 BR there are a ton of WDW options at 7 months. In that case the pure “economics” of it warrant a purchase at SSR or Aulani. VB’s economics per year are about the same as SSR if you can get sub $43 per point

I agree to an extent. I still feel like if I were aiming for a 2BR I'd recommend buying where you want to stay. You're correct that most of the time you can stitch together a 2BR stay at a couple resorts and overall have a very nice vacation but buying where you want to stay also allows you to book the standard 2BR at a resort you like versus being forced to get a theme park/preferred view which will save points. It also guarantees booking a resort you truly enjoy at 11 months which has it's own immeasurable value.

 

[winnieforme]

“buy where you want to stay” i have decided is really only a line for people who want studios. If you do 1BR or even 2 BR there are a ton of WDW options at 7 months. In that case the pure “economics” of it warrant a purchase at SSR or Aulani. VB’s economics per year are about the same as SSR if you can get sub $43 per point

The only thing I have noticed with BWV, is that the 1BR boardwalk view is really hard to get, so the 11 month reservation window is a plus

 

[PinkPixel]

I literally just bought (an hour ago) an old key west contract for 2042. My thoughts were that, for not much more than we would spend on hotels alone to stay on property we can buy in and save some money down the road. Regardless of if it’s value is nothing in 20 years, it has the potential of savings over 10 and I have 0 risk of HAVING to pay for it in 40. This will then operate as a trial run to see if it works for us, and maybe a greater buyin later in life (and maybe with more cash in hand lol).

That said I don’t particularly want to stay at OKW but when I check availability charts, there is typically availability 7mon out at our ideal spots….so, should work. Worst case we may add an additional small contract to the one we just nabbed.

But I am fresh in and took the dive , let ya know how it pans out next year lol.

How do you check availability without being a member?

 

[Cyberc1978]

The only thing I have noticed with BWV, is that the 1BR boardwalk view is really hard to get, so the 11 month reservation window is a plus

isn't that because of the refurb? I think that starting 1st of March 2024 when no more rooms are taken out due to refurb then people have more choices and that should leave more 1br available.

 

[Bearval]

I would be shocked. They will just let it expire and renovate then sell it as a renewed option with much worse point charts.

I agree, they will let it expire, do a major renovation , up the point charts and resell as new. I also wouldn't expect any special incentives just for existing owners either since this is a resort you can walk to both Hollywood studios and Epcot.

 

[Bearval]

I would be surprised if they keep VB and HHI in the DVC bubble so I doubt we'd all see 20 million coming back in. I imagine those properties will likely be sold off. Of course this is all speculation. As much as I'd like to see more DVC properties off the resorts, based on how long it's taking them to sell off site resorts I doubt we'll see anymore.

Based on what we've seen recently, Disney has found it's answer to deluxe resorts that are having a harder time filling which is DVC. CCV and VGF converted a portion from cash to DVC. I don't know their reasoning tbh for the cabins at FW but I imagine they wouldn't do it if it didn't make sense for them financially.

HHI and VB ( they sold off the property next to VB years ago that was supposed to be used for expanding this resort) will get sold off after 2042 since they don't fit the current DVC model which is being near the parks along with the fact they would have too many resorts to renovate and resell at the same time. Also since these are coastal properties they are going to need more invested in them for the renovations.

 

[Sandisw]

“buy where you want to stay” i have decided is really only a line for people who want studios. If you do 1BR or even 2 BR there are a ton of WDW options at 7 months. In that case the pure “economics” of it warrant a purchase at SSR or Aulani. VB’s economics per year are about the same as SSR if you can get sub $43 per point

We are not studio people and I still like knowing I have my 1 or 2 bedroom SV rooms at RIV and VGF secured at 11 months....at 7 months, if there are units left, I use my SSR SAP's to book and then cancel out the ones I booked during home resort advantage.

Right now, my 1 bedrooms at both RIV and VGF are gone for December, and one night of my RIV 2 bedroom for January is also gone....so, for a few of my travel times, having the home resort advantage at where I want to stay, even for larger units is important.

But, for anyone who doesn't care where they go at 7 months, then I agree, where you buy is less important.

 

[bakerworld]

“buy where you want to stay” i have decided is really only a line for people who want studios. If you do 1BR or even 2 BR there are a ton of WDW options at 7 months. In that case the pure “economics” of it warrant a purchase at SSR or Aulani. VB’s economics per year are about the same as SSR if you can get sub $43 per point

The Animal Kingdom Value villas and Bay Lake standard view villas are all hard to get without the 11 month window. Occasionally a night or three will show up but our preference is not for split stays and find 3N stays to be a lot of travel time commitment for such a short stay. Our preferred vacation is 5N.

I agree, if you've no preference on resort location or points usage, then 7 month windows do work with a heavy presence of Saratoga Springs, Old Key West and the more points expensive versions of the other resorts. Grand Floridian and Rivera will still be hard.

 

[tom1944]

I am hoping that owning DVC means we will go to Disney frequently enough that no matter what resort we book we can design a vacation that works for us.

Our discussions about our current trip is centered around we will do what we want at a pace that works for us and not worry if we don’t get to everything because we will be going back.

The plan was centered around our reservation at BLT. It would have been different if our stay was at another location.


That is why we felt 7 months worked under that plan.

 

[varns529]

We are not studio people and I still like knowing I have my 1 or 2 bedroom SV rooms at RIV and VGF secured at 11 months....at 7 months, if there are units left, I use my SSR SAP's to book and then cancel out the ones I booked during home resort advantage.

Right now, my 1 bedrooms at both RIV and VGF are gone for December, and one night of my RIV 2 bedroom for January is also gone....so, for a few of my travel times, having the home resort advantage at where I want to stay, even for larger units is important.

But, for anyone who doesn't care where they go at 7 months, then I agree, where you buy is less important.

Getting the 1 bedroom standard at RIV wasn’t easy at 7 months for the three nights we wanted. Stalked like a madman and finally scored the three nights (first time at RIV thank you direct points we just got), so I can see how having the 11month for 1 bedrooms during busy times is a huge advantage.

Preferred was still available, but it’s a lot of points.

 

[Sandisw]

Getting the 1 bedroom standard at RIV wasn’t easy at 7 months for the three nights we wanted. Stalked like a madman and finally scored the three nights (first time at RIV thank you direct points we just got), so I can see how having the 11month for 1 bedrooms during bust times is a huge advantage.

Preferred was still available, but it’s a lot of points.

Exactly! And, since RIV is our top resort, we want to have the best chance to save points by doing the SV. We moved our fall trip to September, from October, when the nights for the Moonlight Magic were announced, and we are now in a 2 bedroom PV...while its only for 3 nights, I hate having to pay the extra! LOL

 

[Dobermanns]

RIV is also my current favorite at WDW. Hence I didn’t mind adding 150 resale there. I love having my choices of SV units (studio as well as 1-bedroom) as well as tower units.

 

[winnieforme]

isn't that because of the refurb? I think that starting 1st of March 2024 when no more rooms are taken out due to refurb then people have more choices and that should leave more 1br available.

i know that the refurb is impacting availability, but we always have trouble getting 1 BR boardwalk view. still don't know if it's worth it to buy a 2042 resort just for the view

 

[lilsonicfan]

How do you check availability without being a member?

You can't, on a real-time basis at least. You can get a sense if you look at DVC Rental store - but know that the availability changes all the time and as I understand it this site only updates a couple of times a day.

 

[intamin]

How do you check availability without being a member?

I hated not having this info before buying in but you can google availability charts and it’ll show you what on average is available 5, 7, 9 and 11 months out depending on the date you’re trying to book

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

I am patiently stacking cash in a savings account named after the contract I want to buy. Retiring next year, 7 Disney trips since 2012, studied and crunched numbers for years. A small contract at a specific resort with a few use years meets out sweet spot on the risk reward analysis for us.

Life moves fast and I am stunned to find myself where I am. Only child almost grown, health issues altering what we can do, and the clock ticking. I am willing to gift myself a little Disney dream instead of putting the funds toward another life obligation.

Hoping to be ready to start offering in September with full understanding a small contract won't have much, if any, wiggle room. I am done worrying about it, or thinking "I could get twice the number of points at x and try to use them as sap". I will wait for cash in hand and the thing I want. If ROFR returns and it soars out of reach, it wasn't meant for us.

 

[Brian Noble]

When was the last time Disney built a new resort on property that wasn’t DVC or didn’t have a DVC component?

Gran Destino is probably the most recent addition, though not technically a new resort. Prior to that, it was AoA--and that was started before 9/11, though it was not finished until quite a few years later.

I think they are recognizing that DVC is a great way to fill demand, and much less risky than cash stays.

I think they've known that since the 9/11 travel slump. They had to close entire resorts for a while after that, and that's what I mark as the turning point from building new cash resorts plus DVC resorts, to taking cash rooms out of inventory to either raze and rebuild (BLT, RIV, arguably SSR) or convert (CCV, GFV2, Jambo).