A lot of us wonder, too. It’s possible for them to reallocate points across the year, but any increase in one place has to be balanced by a decrease somewhere else. And there’s a limit on how big of an increase can occur each year. It took 3 years for them to reallocate WDW resorts to make the autumn months more expensive and summer less expensive.
The guide will probably try to assign you a UY, but you should be able to get the one you want. Sometimes, if you’re buying near the end of your desired UY, you might have to wait until the new year starts to buy because they don’t have points until then.
The WDW properties seem to follow the same seasons as a whole but you are correct, that is a pretty large discrepancy between VDH and VGC. Definitely worth it to stay in VDH if possible at that time. There is a certain percentage they're allowed to increase the points cost of rooms year over year but of course they won't just magically increase the total number of points in the resort so any increase will have a reciprocal decrease from somewhere else in that room category. As @CarolynFH said, you can choose your use year when buying direct but sometimes they will try and sell you the current use year they're pushing.
I agree - it’s a definite maybe.
