Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

I like the the simplicity of the analysis but I think it overlooks several large factors.

1. Small (<100 points)/large contracts (>300 points) can be priced significantly different the average contracts. Depending on when you got these numbers, the ratio of small/large contracts is probably skewing the average. My guess is that the large number of small contracts is actually increasing the average compared to the number of small contracts that are posted on ROFR. For a more accurate comparison, I think you should only include contracts of typical size (100-300 points).

2. Fully loaded and stripped contracts have different values. For example, if all the contracts are fully loaded, the higher price would suggest prices increased, when in reality they have not. In this case, you would need to adjust the price of stripped contracts upward for an even comparison. For my VGF contract, I offered more than the average rate on ROFR for a fully loaded contract. But if stripped the points (2019 and 2020 points) by renting them out at $15 per point, I would have a price per point that is lower than taken contracts.

Thanks for these calculations. I think these begin to show some changes, but I caution anyone trying to draw insights from them without accounting for the above factors.

yes there will be significant variably base on the factors you mentioned and others, so it is best to look at longer term trends rather than single month or short term changes. The sample size for the ROFR data is also relatively small so that is an issue also.

 

[What-r-ya Goofy?]

DVC tracking 2021



Below is my tracking for Jan 2021

The methodology is somewhat different for what did in March through August 2020

I have included contracts that have had their price changes included so the separate report for that is discontinued.

I am also going to begin tracking the number active contracts for each resort at the end of each month also as well as the change from the previous month.

Fidelity changed their site, so January data from them is somewhat suspect, this should resolve in February.

As a reminder this data only represents 5 sites that can be tracked for listing time sequence

I also do not track RIV or VGC due to the thin market

I am also going to add some commentary at the bottom when I see something notable.



The format will be this months average, change from previous month the number of contacts listed or changed (or in the case of the January report from last August, the number of active contracts at the end of the month and on the February report the change in active contracts



Resort, Average list, change, count, change, active,

AKV 119 -3 77 -7 35

AUL 105 +5 40 +14 18

BLT 159 +6 40 +1 27

BCV 152 -2 41 +19 29

BWV 132 +4 44 +31 31

BRV 113 +3 23 -2 13

CCV 155 0 34 +8 53

VGF 182 +6 40 +6 19

HH 81 +3 24 -5 46

OKW 105 +2 74 +8 55

Poly 155 +2 70 +22 78

SSR 114 +8 98 -36 59

VB 76 +6 46 -16 46

Thank you for putting that together! Very nice!

 

[bookwormde]

A little commentary on January

AUL sales were much stronger with about 80% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month at the largest reseller..
HH sales continue slow with about 30% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month
BWV sales continue to slow with about 50% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month, this appears to be due more listing arriving at asking prices above historic levels.
The number of BCV listings is well above the average over the last year, and are similar to the comments for BWV
VGF sales continue strong with about 70% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month despite higher initial asking price
Poly sales continue relatively slow with about 35% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month, there were a significant number of contracts that the asking price was lowered

 

[bookwormde]

I just wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be posting on DisBoards.

I hope the data, analysis and commentary has been helpful

Bookworm

 

[limace]

I am sorry to hear this!

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

You will be missed!!

Thanks for you all your efforts/investments here. You are the best!

 

[EM Lawrence]

I’ve enjoyed your information! Thank you for all you have done!

 

[CastAStone]

I just wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be posting on DisBoards.

I hope the data, analysis and commentary has been helpful

Bookworm

Boo! Such a bummer but I hope you are well and have simply found something else to take your time. You have been appreciated!

 

[starfrenzy]

I am sad to see you go! Thank you for your contributions.

 

[lovethesun12]

I just wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be posting on DisBoards.

I hope the data, analysis and commentary has been helpful

Bookworm

I have loved your contributions here so much, you will be missed. Thanks for all of your posts

 

[CarolynFH]

I just wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be posting on DisBoards.

I hope the data, analysis and commentary has been helpful

Bookworm

Thank you for your analysis. Sometimes it made my head spin, but it was all very valuable.

Hopefully I'll run into you somewhere else on the internet!

 

[MICKIMINI]

I always looked forward to your posts! Thank you for being such a significant part of this disboard thread. Best wishes to you!

 

[CastAStone]

Gosh @i<3riviera and @bookwormde in the same month. What a bummer for the DIS’ DVC analytics.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Gosh @i<3riviera and @bookwormde in the same month. What a bummer for the DIS’ DVC analytics.

Yeah.... I'm kinda wondering where everyone is going......?!

 

[princesscinderella]

Yeah.... I'm kinda wondering where everyone is going......?!

Me too and the mods

 

[limace]

Yeah, concerning to me, too.

 

[CastAStone]

Me too and the mods

I know the story with the mods and I am 99.9% sure these 2 are unrelated. Also don’t ask me about it on the Dis I’m not allowed to talk about it here.

 

[dischris11]

Gosh @i<3riviera and @bookwormde in the same month. What a bummer for the DIS’ DVC analytics.

I'm really sad everyone is leaving. I'm newer here but I've learned so much from the folks that are saying goodbye.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

Gosh @i<3riviera and @bookwormde in the same month. What a bummer for the DIS’ DVC analytics.

No kidding! I missed that i<3riviera was leaving also.

 

[CastAStone]

No kidding! I missed that i<3riviera was leaving also.

She (?) didn’t make a post about it but they blanked all their posts and are now posting somewhere else.