IMO
Unemployment claims vastly over represent true unemployment, as many employers are furloughing their employees so they can get unemployment immediately from the government.
Stimulus bill essentially gives small businesses 2 months worth grant of payroll and rent support. There small businesses account for around 40% of US workforce. For large businesses, they get separate grants and loans to keep paying people. If 2 months of support is not enough, new stimulus bill will be passed, because it’s an election year and nobody wants to be seen in the way of obstructing people getting paid. This is basically a case of the entire economy being too big to fail.
This is not a structural issue in the economy. It’s a new disease that people currently don’t have no immunity to. In the short term, rapid testing has already been invented, and in the process of scaling up manufacturing. Once we have that, we can lift quarantine, open up the economy, and use rapid testing to pinpoint hotspots for response. Longer term, there is a well developed vaccine development process so it’s just a matter of time.
I agree that Disney vacation is discretionary. Many people’s lives will be disrupted, some in catastrophic ways. Prices will certainly drop. But this is not 2008 where It’s a systemic issue of people who can’t afford to buy houses stretching into them and get wiped out - in that situation people have to fire sell assets to try to keep their home. In this case, I think we are looking at a couple months of disruption in cash flow, and the US government is at the very least providing a 2 month cushion In cash flow. People’s monthly dues are already paid until 2021. If you need cash immediately, it will take two months to get the cash from a DVC sale even if it sells immediately. Therefore I think prices will drop but I don’t think there will be a fire sale.
