Over 3,500 people quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise

[QueenElinor]

I live very close to Costa Mesa and I have no issue with bringing patients here. It's fine. They are not going to be able to come and go as they please anyway. I think the political holdup (from what I have read in local reporting) is that the city was given absolutely NO information about how this whole thing was going to be handled and managed. They sought the injunction in order to get more information, that is all. I do believe if the government wants to move those people to a city, the city management has a right to be informed as to what the protocols are going to be. Costa Mesa is a good location, healthcare wise. There are a dozen or so large hospitals in close proximity that can likely handle the possibility of EVERY person needing to be hospitalized.

I agree. I think the government blew it on that.
Also, Japan has gone from no travel advisory to Level 1 to Level 2 in two days. I would not be at all surprised if it was level 4 in two weeks and the Diamond Princess people who didn't come back on the repatriation flights get a 2 wk quarantine anyway.

 

[Adventurelawyer]

I agree. I think the government blew it on that.
Also, Japan has gone from no travel advisory to Level 1 to Level 2 in two days. I would not be at all surprised if it was level 4 in two weeks and the Diamond Princess people who didn't come back on the repatriation flights get a 2 wk quarantine anyway.

This is more than likely a city/ county conflict, but the proper defendant isn't the county. CDC would have advised the Orange County Sheriff and Health Department in order to support the mission, even though its in city of Costa Mesa, they probably didn't contact them because most cities don't manage their own health departments and thus, Costa Mesa is not a shot caller, even though it is a stakeholder. I get that Costa Mesa wants to be looped in, but also, it isn't strictly necessary unless the building is city property (like an old library, rather than existing within a geographical boundary). That being said, I also understand why the fewer people who know the better, some people don't react well to the diseased being housed nearby and start rioting or throwing rocks at busses. That happened in Ukraine, but it could easily happen here too.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

Yes. My spouse is in internal medicine and he said that they can get a PCR test done if they think they a patient needs it. We live in the boonies. Funny how many people are suddenly going to have just gone out to dinner with someone who just got back from a trip to China.

Since they picked up that lady in Canada who had only been to Iran, it's obvious docs are on high alert everywhere. Protocol wouldn't have picked her up, but an astute doc put two and two together. Or, it wouldn't suprise me if the patient knew something hinky was going on in Iran, or was keeping up on the news, and then went in and informed the doc. We all have to work together on this.

That's right! I'm northern Italy now they have started to test any patients' with coronavirus symptoms indipendetly from their travel history, and that's why they are finding so many! I wonder if other European countries did the same or just tested people linked with their #1case, because that could have leeked many cases.
As I said in my other posts only testing and being suspecious of people from China has been very naive.

 

[blabadie]

The situation in Italy is getting worse by the hour we have 60 cases now. And the one they thought was patient 0, has actually never had the virus after they did the antibodies test. So they don't have a patient 0 anymore which makes it really hard to track the virus it's probably everywhere already! It's important to notice that alot of the cases they discovered were of people already in the hospital, that they didn't suspect had the virus at first.

This is truly frightening. I wouldn't be surprised if many were infected at the hospital, both patients and medical staff. So disturbing to see the community spread outside SE Asia.

Watching this virus spread has made me so personally uneasy. My husband is on expat assignment for the next couple years in India. My kids and I spend about 2/3 of our time there and about 1/3 of the time back home in the USA. Right now the kids and I are in the USA (DH in India) with plans to return to India in March. The virus hasn't taken off there yet (as far as we know) and their govt has been fairly proactive, but I am becoming scared to return with this stuff looming in case there is a sudden outbreak like in Italy, not to mention my increasing concern with intl flights....But I also hate our family being separated for a prolonged period. Still up in the air about what to do and just wish this virus would get under control. I can't even begin to imagine what it must be like for those living in the epicenters.

And sorry for the long personal rant...just had to vent all my stress. I am envious of those who are not natural worriers and just peacefully (and probably much more rationally!) going on without too much thought for COVID-19.

 

[piglet1979]

I agree. I think the government blew it on that.
Also, Japan has gone from no travel advisory to Level 1 to Level 2 in two days. I would not be at all surprised if it was level 4 in two weeks and the Diamond Princess people who didn't come back on the repatriation flights get a 2 wk quarantine anyway.

I have been thinking the same thing about another 2 week quarantine once they are back.

 

[QueenElinor]

This is more than likely a city/ county conflict, but the proper defendant isn't the county. CDC would have advised the Orange County Sheriff and Health Department in order to support the mission, even though its in city of Costa Mesa, they probably didn't contact them because most cities don't manage their own health departments and thus, Costa Mesa is not a shot caller, even though it is a stakeholder. I get that Costa Mesa wants to be looped in, but also, it isn't strictly necessary unless the building is city property (like an old library, rather than existing within a geographical boundary). That being said, I also understand why the fewer people who know the better, some people don't react well to the diseased being housed nearby and start rioting or throwing rocks at busses. That happened in Ukraine, but it could easily happen here too.

I'm in favor of the more info, the better. People usually make up worse scenarios in their minds than the reality. I can't even begin to imagine what the Chinese people have had to endure. And Americans don't do well with being told it's none of your business, whenthey think it is. In my personal experience, people can deal with some pretty crappy news if you're just straight with them, and have a plan.

If people perceive the government is being less than honest, things like riots can occur. Lots of people are already so suspicious right now, and it's really terrible in countries where people have a long history of being lied to. They won't trust the government, and they won't do what they're being asked to do. Hence force is used, and to me that's the beginning of the end.

I do have a great deal of faith in the CDC, but they are not as forthcoming as I'd like. However, next week they are rolling out local pages on their website so I expect things to improve.

 

[blabadie]

I think a lot of these itineraries have already been cancelled by the cruise lines, but I found it interesting that the CDC is officially recommending that people avoid all cruises to or within Asia. (Granted those routes are probably not terribly popular right now anyway after the Diamond Princess situation...)

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/cruise-ship-asia

 

[Karin1984]

Shall we do some 'good' news? Yesterday 1,700 new cases, but 3,000 people got cured, according to the chart of John Hopkins.

 

[BadPinkTink]

Shall we do some 'good' news? Yesterday 1,700 new cases, but 3,000 people got cured, according to the chart of John Hopkins.

and more good news, my country is STILL virus free as I'm sure a many other countries, but thats not being reported

 

[GlamMistress]

Another DP passenger has died. An 80 year old man, nationality unknown at this time.

36 people taken from the DP are seriously ill.

And another batch sick:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1231556938116292614

 

[gotomu212]

This virus doesn't look any worse or more deadly than the seasonal flu. How are we going to know who to quarantine when 80% of those infected have mild or no symptoms yet they still may be capable of spreading the virus. This is not Ebola or TB that can easily be contained. Lastly, how are you going to quarantine large numbers of people in the US.? Lockdown cities? Marshal Law? FEMA camps? Chinese people are used to doing whatever the government tells them to do. People in this country, not so much and Americans have guns.

Ive seen this claim in a few places that it’s no more deadly than the common flu, especially outside China, and disputing the current estimate of 2% (which I understand is still a moving target) but I don’t understand how people are making those claims. Until a country has 50 cases there’s no way to know if the 2% rate is valid since people cant be a fraction dead. There seems to be only about 6 countries now over 50, and with the exception of Singapore they have rates around 1-2% fatalities. That’s 10x greater than the seasonal flu.

The sample size is still so small, and we have so much to learn with both the incubation period and the usual lengthy illness before death, but 6 weeks into really tracking these initial deaths seem high for a new virus and nowhere near flu both In terms of death and in terms of the need for aggressive hospitalization rates and in the absurdly long time it takes to diagnose and resolve.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

Ive seen this claim in a few places that it’s no more deadly than the common flu, especially outside China, and disputing the current estimate of 2% (which I understand is still a moving target) but I don’t understand how people are making those claims. Until a country has 50 cases there’s no way to know if the 2% rate is valid since people cant be a fraction dead. There seems to be only about 6 countries now over 50, and with the exception of Singapore they have rates around 1-2% fatalities. That’s 10x greater than the seasonal flu.

The sample size is still so small, and we have so much to learn with both the incubation period and the usual lengthy illness before death, but 6 weeks into really tracking these initial deaths seem high for a new virus and nowhere near flu both In terms of death and in terms of the need for aggressive hospitalization rates and in the absurdly long time it takes to diagnose and resolve.

Yes well in Italy atm on 132 cases 26 are in intensive therapy and 3 are dead. It is obviously a virus that requires alot of public health resources, and that's why they sre fighting it so hard.

 

[gotomu212]

Yes well in Italy atm on 132 cases 26 are in intensive therapy and 3 are dead. It is obviously a virus that requires alot of public health resources, and that's why they sre fighting it so hard.

Yes, exactly. Each time we have a new case study it seems to verify the current data that 20% of the cases are severe and approx 2% are fatal. The Italy numbers are exactly that- 20% in intensive hospital, 2.3%fatal.

While I still feel no real threat to myself personally in the US, even though I fly domestically back and forth to DC every other week, I am confused why so many (and not to pick on anyone specifically) that claim this is as relatively safe as the flu (which is only 1.5% hospitalization and 0.1% fatality even in bad
years).

 

[Starwind]

Sadly, a third passenger from the Diamond Princess has died.

Official announcement from Japanese Ministry of Health; translation by Google:

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_09707.html
QUOTE
About death of patient associated with cruise ship under quarantine at Yokohama Port
　Today, February 23, a cruise ship-related patient who has been quarantined at Yokohama Port has died. I pray for the soul of the deceased.
Information will be provided only to the extent that the consent of the bereaved family regarding the presentation has been obtained. When reporting, please give due consideration to the privacy of the deceased and the bereaved.

Patient (3rd case)
1 Outline

(1) Age: 80s
(2) Gender: Male
(3) Nationality: Japan
(4) Basic disease: Applicable

2 Cause of death Pneumonia

3 Progress
February 3 At Yokohama Port Quarantine Anchorage Quarantine started.
February 5 Cruise ship returns to Yokohama. Thereafter, transported to a medical institution as a patient.
February 23 Death confirmed.



END QUOTE

 

[Starwind]

And more crew and passengers from Diamond Princess are confirmed infected. They are now at about 700 cases now, I have lost count of the exact number.

Per Japanese Ministry of Health, translation by Google:
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_09708.html
QUOTE
About new coronavirus infection confirmed on cruise ship during quarantine at Yokohama Port (published on February 23)
　The cruise ship Diamond Princess, which arrived at Yokohama Port on February 3, is undergoing quarantine at sea.
Samples were collected between February 19 and February 21 and the results of the PCR tests were as follows.

1) Crew
Out of the 819 samples whose results were found, 55 were positive (including 50 asymptomatic pathogen carriers).

2) Passenger
Out of the twelve specimens for which the results were determined, two specimens were positive (of which two specimen holders had asymptomatic pathogens).

END QUOTE

 

[mousefan73]

I was ok with all this until this morining whenI read about italy.. I am in germany and booked on the Hawii April 29th sailing from Vancouver.. I am freaking more out now. Worse case this spreads and cruises stop sailing or Europeans are now the chinese and banned from entering NA.. Oh and I work for an airlines and we are losing millions and millions, so I hope I have a job still.

I was joking, not really, with my nephew about how maybe its not a bad idea to stock up on non-persishbables. I wonder if those in Italy who are stuck at home have supplies..

 

[smmco]

Yes, exactly. Each time we have a new case study it seems to verify the current data that 20% of the cases are severe and approx 2% are fatal. The Italy numbers are exactly that- 20% in intensive hospital, 2.3%fatal.

While I still feel no real threat to myself personally in the US, even though I fly domestically back and forth to DC every other week, I am confused why so many (and not to pick on anyone specifically) that claim this is as relatively safe as the flu (which is only 1.5% hospitalization and 0.1% fatality even in bad
years).

This thread was started 3 weeks ago.

 

[MarkLT1]

Yes, exactly. Each time we have a new case study it seems to verify the current data that 20% of the cases are severe and approx 2% are fatal. The Italy numbers are exactly that- 20% in intensive hospital, 2.3%fatal.

While I still feel no real threat to myself personally in the US, even though I fly domestically back and forth to DC every other week, I am confused why so many (and not to pick on anyone specifically) that claim this is as relatively safe as the flu (which is only 1.5% hospitalization and 0.1% fatality even in bad
years).

I think there are some crossing of communication lines going on here, in regards to the comparison to the flu. The arguments I have been seen typically start with "You shouldn't be worried about this.. worry about the flu." And while in principle, I agree that at this moment in the US, you should be more worried about the flu, than the coronavirus, but only because the coronavirus has not yet begun to spread in the US (as far as we are aware).

The other argument I am seeing are arguments of absolute numbers- e.g.- "The flu killed 80,000 people in the US last year, and you are worried about this virus that has only killed 2500?" What these arguments seem to be missing, is that if we had an infection rate similar to the flu in the US (neglecting the observation that this coronavirus seems to spread much easier than the flu), and the ~2% mortality rate holds, it would kill somewhere between 500,000 and 1,000,000 people in the US alone.

 

[Starwind]

Yes, exactly. Each time we have a new case study it seems to verify the current data that 20% of the cases are severe and approx 2% are fatal. The Italy numbers are exactly that- 20% in intensive hospital, 2.3%fatal.

While I still feel no real threat to myself personally in the US, even though I fly domestically back and forth to DC every other week, I am confused why so many (and not to pick on anyone specifically) that claim this is as relatively safe as the flu (which is only 1.5% hospitalization and 0.1% fatality even in bad
years).

And the numbers from e.g. Italy are not good:

Three people have died and at least 152 others have been infected with the virus in Italy, Angelo Borrelli, head of the country's Civil Protection agency, said at a Sunday news conference.

There are 110 cases in the northern Italian region of Lombardy, Borelli said, whose capital is the city of Milan.

He said at an earlier press conference that 26 patients were in intensive care and one patient had recovered.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/europe/italy-novel-coronavirus-spike-intl/index.html

And those are the cases they know about.

So with about 150 cases, 26 are in intensive care (17.3 %), 3 have died (2 %). And it is only going to get worse for them.

How many ICU beds are available in your city/region/state ? How many are *available* and not already filled with a patient.

When you start doing the math, you quickly run out of ICU beds, let alone beds for those who need hospitalization but not the ICU. Ultimately it means decisions being made on who gets the limited resources, and probably a resulting higher death rate as some people who needed a higher level of care couldn't get what might have been able to save them. :-(

Influenza just doesn't give numbers like that...

Here are the numbers for Canada so far for this influenza season. Note, many people with influenza-like illness will not be tested for it, even if they see a healthcare provider. [ETA: Canada has about 35 million people]

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-hea...tch/2019-2020/week-07-february-9-15-2020.html
- To date this season (weeks 35 to 07), 38,671 laboratory detections of influenza were reported
- To date this season, 1,687 influenza-associated hospitalizations were reported by participating provinces and territories
- 189 ICU admissions and 64 deaths have been reported

So just going off these numbers, which ignores those who have not been tested, for Canada so far:

4.36 % hospitalization rate
0.489 % ICU admission rate
0.165 % death rate

And the numbers are actually even lower IRL due to the numbers of untested.

ETA:
If we were to throw the Italian coronavirus rate numbers onto this... If Canada had 38,671 laboratory detections of coronavirus, then the other numbers would look like:

6690 ICU admissions
773 deaths

This is a study from 2015 that speaks to the numbers of ICU beds in Canada; bold added by me: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4426537/

We identified 286 hospitals with 3170 ICU beds and 4982 mechanical ventilators for critically ill patients. Twenty-two hospitals had an ICU that routinely cared for children; 15 had dedicated pediatric ICUs. Per 100,000 population, there was substantial variability in provincial capacity, with a mean of 0.9 hospitals with ICUs (provincial range 0.4-2.8), 10 ICU beds capable of providing mechanical ventilation (provincial range 6–19), and 15 invasive mechanical ventilators (provincial range 10–24).

SW

 

[Adventurelawyer]

How many ICU beds are available in your city/region/state ? How many are *available* and not already filled with a patient.

When you start doing the math, you quickly run out of ICU beds, let alone beds for those who need hospitalization but not the ICU. Ultimately it means decisions being made on who gets the limited resources, and probably a resulting higher death rate as some people who needed a higher level of care couldn't get what might have been able to save them. :-(

I

This is the reason we quarantine and place limits on travel. Finite resources.