Yes, exactly. Each time we have a new case study it seems to verify the current data that 20% of the cases are severe and approx 2% are fatal. The Italy numbers are exactly that- 20% in intensive hospital, 2.3%fatal.
While I still feel no real threat to myself personally in the US, even though I fly domestically back and forth to DC every other week, I am confused why so many (and not to pick on anyone specifically) that claim this is as relatively safe as the flu (which is only 1.5% hospitalization and 0.1% fatality even in bad
years).
And the numbers from e.g. Italy are not good:
Three people have died and at least 152 others have been infected with the virus in Italy, Angelo Borrelli, head of the country's Civil Protection agency, said at a Sunday news conference.
There are 110 cases in the northern Italian region of Lombardy, Borelli said, whose capital is the city of Milan.
He said at an earlier press conference that 26 patients were in intensive care and one patient had recovered.
Source:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/europe/italy-novel-coronavirus-spike-intl/index.html
And those are the cases they know about.
So with about 150 cases, 26 are in intensive care (17.3 %), 3 have died (2 %). And it is only going to get worse for them.
How many ICU beds are available in your city/region/state ? How many are *available* and not already filled with a patient.
When you start doing the math, you quickly run out of ICU beds, let alone beds for those who need hospitalization but not the ICU. Ultimately it means decisions being made on who gets the limited resources, and probably a resulting higher death rate as some people who needed a higher level of care couldn't get what might have been able to save them. :-(
Influenza just doesn't give numbers like that...
Here are the numbers for Canada so far for this influenza season. Note, many people with influenza-like illness will not be tested for it, even if they see a healthcare provider. [ETA: Canada has about 35 million people]
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-hea...tch/2019-2020/week-07-february-9-15-2020.html
- To date this season (weeks 35 to 07), 38,671 laboratory detections of influenza were reported
- To date this season, 1,687 influenza-associated hospitalizations were reported by participating provinces and territories
- 189 ICU admissions and 64 deaths have been reported
So just going off these numbers, which ignores those who have not been tested, for Canada so far:
4.36 % hospitalization rate
0.489 % ICU admission rate
0.165 % death rate
And the numbers are actually even lower IRL due to the numbers of untested.
ETA:
If we were to throw the Italian coronavirus rate numbers onto this... If Canada had
38,671 laboratory detections of coronavirus, then the other numbers would look like:
6690 ICU admissions
773 deaths
This is a study from 2015 that speaks to the numbers of ICU beds in Canada; bold added by me:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4426537/
We identified 286 hospitals with 3170 ICU beds and 4982 mechanical ventilators for critically ill patients. Twenty-two hospitals had an ICU that routinely cared for children; 15 had dedicated pediatric ICUs. Per 100,000 population, there was substantial variability in provincial capacity, with a mean of 0.9 hospitals with ICUs (provincial range 0.4-2.8), 10 ICU beds capable of providing mechanical ventilation (provincial range 6–19), and 15 invasive mechanical ventilators (provincial range 10–24).
SW