Covid And The Rest of Us

[bavaria]

Bavaria - Could you please explain what you want people to do, because I don't understand?

M.

Apologies, it has been another tough day, so let me see if I can summarize quickly:
- those countries which have so far had relative success in keeping numbers below a certain point open their borders meaning that there is reciprocal travel to/from 'lower risk' areas
- testing/tracing continues, along with local restrictions if cases rise above a certain number per 100,000 (already in place as in Germany, but also elsewhere, but not on the level of Melbourne)
- quick testing at airports from high risk areas (see the Lufthansa instagram page for a quick overview of how it works) Negative test? Proceed. Positive test? Quarantine. Don't want a test? Quarantine
- removal of 10/14 day quarantine on arrival from 'lower risk' countries, combined with quick/free testing

This would allow a resumption of some movement globally. I am not referring to holidays, but to the critical business and humanitarian work which cannot continue right now due to so many varying restrictions around the world.

This requires that governments start to prepare for this, and work with the population to move to this next level. It may require a greater social net but many of these countries have a strong social network in place.

Then we need to address the issues that COVID actions caused. NGOs and voluntary organizations need to get back to work and things need to reopen. Just one example is a Masai school in Kenya (all schools closed til 2021) which I have supported, and now the girls have been sent back home and are at risk of female mutilation and at risk of not being able to return to improve their situation (I could go on at length at how the Masai are impacted but that is another story)

This requires of course a lot of global cooperation, trust in governments, and accountability and transparency.

And it requires people to think about the greater good, and not just the individual. My life has been so profoundly impacted by this pandemic and the actions taken, but I cannot wish that anyone has to deal with the situations I have (and I know that many have it much worse). There are darker times coming with more job loss, etc so we need to act now to mitigate and try and live with this.


On a final note, Maddie I think that you are in place which had seen so much 'non-COVID' tragedy and pain this year. Life goes on, and so many people have to deal with other bad things besides COVID. But we are making it even worse for the world if we cannot find a quick way to make changes.

 

[bavaria]

My comments have absolutely nothing to do with him. Nothing. And although this may not apply to you, I am always curious with Canadians who seem to be quite aware of American politics but uninformed about issues that are extremely significant to all of us here at home.

I'm in complete agreement with what you have said, even if it is just alluding to things. The actions taken yesterday are even more alarming, but look at the support that Next Digital has had by the people in the last few hours. It's just one example of how much 'other' is happening in the world besides COVID, and how much people are at risk from 'other' things.

 

[bavaria]

I keep hearing how tourism is hurting right now. Its time us Canadians travel our country and help the tourism industry. This past weekend I went to a part of Ontario I have never been to before.

There is no way that local tourism is replacing the high value international tourism. Look at hotel rates in places that attract Chinese, other Asian, western European, and American travellers. And look at the prices of attractions. The reality is that many people are out of work and more are worried about the future, and are curbing spending. Nations which have a high amount of their revenue coming from international tourism are being hit very hard ,and the vast majority cannot make it up with local tourism.

 

[Jrb1979]

There is no way that local tourism is replacing the high value international tourism. Look at hotel rates in places that attract Chinese, other Asian, western European, and American travellers. And look at the prices of attractions. The reality is that many people are out of work and more are worried about the future, and are curbing spending. Nations which have a high amount of their revenue coming from international tourism are being hit very hard ,and the vast majority cannot make it up with local tourism.

I know it's not a long term solution but at least for now it works. I'm not against opening the border. Better screening and contact tracing needs to in place first

 

[tcufrog]

My concern with opening up international travel again are those who find "creative" workarounds such as these Chinese students at the start of the pandemic. I'd hate to have COVID reintroduced to the countries that have it under control by people who are fine with not playing by the rules.

 

[Jrb1979]

My concern with opening up international travel again are those who find "creative" workarounds such as these Chinese students at the start of the pandemic. I'd hate to have COVID reintroduced to the countries that have it under control by people who are fine with not playing by the rules.

That's what I think many here in Canada are afraid of. If they had a way to do contact tracing with all that cross the border I think things would be ok.

 

[maddiel]

Apologies, it has been another tough day, so let me see if I can summarize quickly:
- those countries which have so far had relative success in keeping numbers below a certain point open their borders meaning that there is reciprocal travel to/from 'lower risk' areas
- testing/tracing continues, along with local restrictions if cases rise above a certain number per 100,000 (already in place as in Germany, but also elsewhere, but not on the level of Melbourne)
- quick testing at airports from high risk areas (see the Lufthansa instagram page for a quick overview of how it works) Negative test? Proceed. Positive test? Quarantine. Don't want a test? Quarantine
- removal of 10/14 day quarantine on arrival from 'lower risk' countries, combined with quick/free testing

This would allow a resumption of some movement globally. I am not referring to holidays, but to the critical business and humanitarian work which cannot continue right now due to so many varying restrictions around the world.

This requires that governments start to prepare for this, and work with the population to move to this next level. It may require a greater social net but many of these countries have a strong social network in place.

Then we need to address the issues that COVID actions caused. NGOs and voluntary organizations need to get back to work and things need to reopen. Just one example is a Masai school in Kenya (all schools closed til 2021) which I have supported, and now the girls have been sent back home and are at risk of female mutilation and at risk of not being able to return to improve their situation (I could go on at length at how the Masai are impacted but that is another story)

This requires of course a lot of global cooperation, trust in governments, and accountability and transparency.

And it requires people to think about the greater good, and not just the individual. My life has been so profoundly impacted by this pandemic and the actions taken, but I cannot wish that anyone has to deal with the situations I have (and I know that many have it much worse). There are darker times coming with more job loss, etc so we need to act now to mitigate and try and live with this.


On a final note, Maddie I think that you are in place which had seen so much 'non-COVID' tragedy and pain this year. Life goes on, and so many people have to deal with other bad things besides COVID. But we are making it even worse for the world if we cannot find a quick way to make changes.

Thank you for taking the time to write this out. I really appreciate it, especially if you are having a tough day.

I think the actions you suggest are reasonable.

I'm frustrated with where we are with testing. Our local testing regime is fine for maintaining a defensive status quo, but not for moving toward more openness. But I find the information out there about the reliability of testing to be confusing. and contradictory, and I expect I am not alone in that.

I appreciate the reasons you see the need for more speed in reaction to this. It makes me realize that it would better for all of us (me included!) if we focused less on the circus and more on the wider picture. But still I think action needs to be tempered with caution.

M.

 

[pahoben]

Just 2 questions: 1) on what basis do you make the statement that 'they have a low pandemic risk going forward from this virus'? There's no evidence that I'm aware of to back that statement. And 2) you do realize that the death rate from Covid in Sweden was 6-12 times higher than any of the other Scandinavian countries?

You make some very interesting points, but do some generalizing. And believe me - there's been a lot of generalizations on all sides for all opinions who wish to make their solutions fit. But this is not a normal virus or bacterial event - it's clear (and proven) the level of contagious spread of this virus is extremely high. Much higher than most (if not all) viruses we've experienced. And with no way to prevent it, no way to cure it, and without any evidence that there's even an immunity formed - the extra, extreme precautions most of the world is taken seem very warranted.

I do hope that scientists are looking closely at a situation like Sweden, trying to figure out why they might have less issues than other countries. Maybe they have a younger population that allows for less obvious sickness. Maybe there are environmental factors. Who knows. But until there are scientific reasons shared for it, I'll pass on the idea that they are an example we should all follow.

Answer 1) The current new infection rate and death rate are essentially zero with no masking and no general quarantine. The virus is no longer transmitting in a pandemic manner. This evidence increases every day.
Answer 2). Somewhere along the line the flattening the curve/keep ICU patient loads at manageable levels morphed into reducing deaths. This virus will continue to transmit until sufficient are immune to break the pandemic transmittal paths.

This virus is not even close to the most contagious airborne virus. Just one example is measles that is far far more contagious.

it is clear now that T cells are involved with immunity to this virus. The standard anti bodies may fade but T cell protection remains. A study of blood samples in LA found that about 40% of blood samples taken in 2013 had T cell reactivity to Covid 19 suggesting there is a sizable portion of the population with immune systems primed against this virus even with no exposure to the virus.

 

[pahoben]

First of all, if you're going to talk about not locking down as a correct response, remember that Italy, essentially had that response... until they were decimated with the virus. Sweden benefitted from everyone else doing what they should have done... locking down. No one was bringing the virus in to Sweden and they were lucky enough to not be a primary outbreak area. Had they been the first in Europe to see the virus, their response and their outcome would likely have been different. Think of them as that one person with no vaccine to measles amid a crowd of vaccinated people. The chance of having a bad outcome was already mitigated because everyone else took precautions.

And, Sweden didn't just leave everything to chance, like people think. They just didn't close everything down. They still did physical distancing and everything they could to keep their at-risk population safe.

Italy imposed a national quarantine on March 9th so very early on. On or before March 9th 500 people were reported as having died from Covid in Italy. After March 9th and to date 34,500 have reportedly died from Covid in Italy. A few are still listed each day as deceased from this virus. In 2019, prior to the virus, Italy reported 650,000 deaths.

Italy was not decimated by Covid 19 but some hospitals in the Lombardy region had overloaded ICU’s.

 

[Karin1984]

It is useless to compare countries, as circumstances differ so much. One of the other advantages that Sweden (and also Norway and Finland) has over other countries that it 'only' has 10 million citizens, but only a handful of big cities were many people are close together. With 450K square m, it's a huge country. In the Netherlands we have 17 million citizens on less than 10% of land. Even if we had done exactly the same as Sweden, our numbers were doomed to be worse.

I think also a major factor in the decision to close down is whether or not your country is heavily dependent on tourism or not. The Southern European countries are much more dependent than up North.
Should countries like Italy or Spain have closed down earlier? In hindsight, probably yes, but hindsight is always... well... 20/20 ;-)

We will not know which country did best for 5 - 10 years, and even then it will be hard to compare.

Here in NL, well, still no mask mandate except now in some busy areas of Amsterdam and Rotterdam. But I feel like with the schools closing down in March after public pressure, it might not take long before we will have a mandate here too. I see more and more friends on my social media posting about that we should have a mask mandate too.
Will it help? Will it hinder? Will it do absolutely nothing... also that is for the future to decide. I read the following yesterday in the Daily Mail:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...s-neck-fleeces-trap-infectious-particles.htmlAnd all I could think of: Who thought a knitted mask would offer any protection??? (Saw one yesterday in the train as well...)

I stopped following the news for the last two weeks, Covid-tired. I'll deal with the measures once they are announced.

 

[pahoben]

I wouldn’t say I’m uninformed. I’m ashamed to admit it, but I follow US politics because it’s such a circus. I will taper off once the election is over. It’s a morbid curiosity which isn’t fair to the Americans who are caught in the predicament.

Maybe I don’t follow ours because it’s so boring. That’s a blessing in disguise for sure.

It has been clear for many years that the problems in US politics are due to our northern neighbor’s manipulations. All of the social problems south of the border can be traced back to their source north of the border and directly to Ottawa. Much of this has been well documented in various South Park episodes.

Just kidding-Canada is a beautiful country. I have been to all the Provinces except Yukon and the Maritimes and would like to visit those also. I haven’t been to Vancouver for a number of years but remember it as my favorite city in North America. I understand that the influx of money from China has distorted the real estate market there to an unbelievable degree. The Chinese must know a beautiful city when they see one.

 

[pahoben]

It is useless to compare countries, as circumstances differ so much. One of the other advantages that Sweden (and also Norway and Finland) has over other countries that it 'only' has 10 million citizens, but only a handful of big cities were many people are close together. With 450K square m, it's a huge country. In the Netherlands we have 17 million citizens on less than 10% of land. Even if we had done exactly the same as Sweden, our numbers were doomed to be worse.

I think also a major factor in the decision to close down is whether or not your country is heavily dependent on tourism or not. The Southern European countries are much more dependent than up North.
Should countries like Italy or Spain have closed down earlier? In hindsight, probably yes, but hindsight is always... well... 20/20 ;-)

We will not know which country did best for 5 - 10 years, and even then it will be hard to compare.

Here in NL, well, still no mask mandate except now in some busy areas of Amsterdam and Rotterdam. But I feel like with the schools closing down in March after public pressure, it might not take long before we will have a mandate here too. I see more and more friends on my social media posting about that we should have a mask mandate too.
Will it help? Will it hinder? Will it do absolutely nothing... also that is for the future to decide. I read the following yesterday in the Daily Mail:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...s-neck-fleeces-trap-infectious-particles.htmlAnd all I could think of: Who thought a knitted mask would offer any protection??? (Saw one yesterday in the train as well...)

I stopped following the news for the last two weeks, Covid-tired. I'll deal with the measures once they are announced.

The survival advantage intelligence provided humankind was that it allowed reasonable expectations about the outcome of future events. The current trend in Western societies is to embrace a kind of anti-intelligence. “Experts” provide a forecast about something that to very many people seems absurd but to others is taken as immutable truth. The forecast might be something like 2.2 million US deaths by 2021 or New York City will be submerged by rising seas by 2020. The date comes and gos and the forecast is immensely wrong. The group that thought the forecast was absurd from the start becomes more cynical with the passing of the date while the group that initially ardently believed waits for the next “Expert” proclamation as if nothing at all has happened. There are tens of billions of dollars in public funding each year for which many of these “Experts” rely on. The search for truth is often tempered by the need to obtain funding from a political bureaucracy.

 

[BadPinkTink]

In other news, New Zealand just announced the city of Auckland is back in lockdown. After 102 days with no cases, 4 people in a 6 person household have tested positive. So the Prime Minister has put the entire city into lockdown until the contacts and source of this outbreak can be traced.

 

[ronandannette]

In other news, New Zealand just announced the city of Auckland is back in lockdown. After 102 days with no cases, 4 people in a 6 person household have tested positive. So the Prime Minister has put the entire city into lockdown until the contacts and source of this outbreak can be traced.

Indisputable proof that the the “goal” is now to eradicate cases entirely - regardless of the cost. As our friend @pahoben discussed upthread, where has reason and logic gone?

 

[NFLDERS]

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/passenge...on-international-flights-in-toronto-1.5058347

 

[godisney14]

Indisputable proof that the the “goal” is now to eradicate cases entirely - regardless of the cost. As our friend @pahoben discussed upthread, where has reason and logic gone?

In New Zealand.

 

[morgan98]

I am interested in seeing how the family in NZ caught it if the entire country (island) has been on lock down.

 

[godisney14]

I am interested in seeing how the family in NZ caught it if the entire country (island) has been on lock down.

Who’s been on lockdown?

 

[bavaria]

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/passenge...on-international-flights-in-toronto-1.5058347

This is a great example of a catchy headline, which requires critical thinking. From the article:
"However, it is important to understand the incidence of individuals contracting a communicable disease inflight is very low. As evidence, consider what are called 'cluster outbreaks,' where a group of people contract a disease at the same time and location. These are rarely if ever tied to modes of travel, whereas you often see reports of outbreaks arising from funerals, bars or other gatherings," Fitzpatrick said.

18 arrivals vs a population of 37 million people, and there is no evidence of spread from flights. I've been talking with employees of some of the biggest airlines and airports in the last months and there are no trends of spread from airline passengers, or around airports (again, keeping the US out of this). And crew generally are exempt from the quarantine rules, so they are able to land, go to their hotel, go out to dinner, etc.

The media plays a big role in how the pandemic is handled, as they are trying to increase readership by fear mongering. They know that people only read headlines, don't search out facts, and lack critical thinking skills.

 

[bavaria]

Indisputable proof that the the “goal” is now to eradicate cases entirely - regardless of the cost. As our friend @pahoben discussed upthread, where has reason and logic gone?

I invoked the ire of kiwis elsewhere for suggesting that in a few years or decades, Jacinda Ardern will not be seen as a hero of the pandemic.

Fiji, one of the poorest countries in the world, has begged to join the until now fictional 'trans Tasman travel bubble'. 40 percent of their income comes from tourism; 60 percent from NZ/Australia and most of the rest from the US. This is not an island paradise by any means. If tourists would ever venture outside their resort bubble, they would see the high levels of poverty. The soil is very poor, which is why there are no wonderful fruits and vegetables served in the resorts.

Schools and villages if they are lucky are 'sponsored' by a resort, meaning that there are 'tours' throughout the week of tourists who do want to do more than just enjoy the resort. In turn, the village head takes donations from the tourists, the women sell their trinkets, and schools show the supplies, buildings, uniforms, etc 'donated' by Americans, Australians, New Zealanders in hopes that more will choose to do the same.

So now what? The resorts closed. Ex-pats lost their jobs, so their personal staff did too. The resorts usually donated the food they had to the population, but that has run out. The fleet of helicopters that fly between the islands has been grounded. The pilots have returned to their native Czechia, etc. The main carrier was grounded. The crew if lucky returned to India (which grounded flights for months) The people who live on the beach next to some of the best resorts offering massages and horseback riding have no customers. 'Remittances' ie money sent from family overseas, has dried up as they lost their jobs in the UAE, etc.

Any COVID plan by wealthier nations which includes closing borders should in my opinion also address foreign aid and how we will deal with the impact our actions have on others. But leaders don't want to do that when they are busy going into national debt to provide services to their own people. Australia permitted 170 workers in to come pick fruit in the near future. The income they will earn as farm labourers is going to have a minimal impact on the starvation at home.

This is just another example of what I mean by our 'privilege'. We sit in fear of a disease which has not had a high death rate, and support decisions which will mean millions will starve this year. Most of those are 'unseen' because most people in privileged countries have not travelled there, or do not know them as people, just numbers.

There is a lack of balance of action vs threat in most of the world

How many cases of COVID in Fiji? 27. How many COVID deaths? 1. How many deaths will come from starvation? Unknown.