Crowd Outlook

[Jrb1979]

2023 had 8,581,600 cash room nights booked on site of an available 10,096,000 cash rooms.

2022 was 8,259,860 of 10,073,000 available.

More people paid to be on site in fiscal 2023 than 2022

What I would really like to know is the percentage of attendance and hotel numbers between WDW and DL. The reason I ask is during the stockholders call and time WDW was asked about he avoided answers.

 

[HokieRaven5]

What I would really like to know is the percentage of attendance and hotel numbers between WDW and DL. The reason I ask is during the stockholders call and time WDW was asked about he avoided answers.

Disney could also just be like every other theme park company and just share global revenue and attendance rather than any individualized data.

The amount of data Disney already shares is leaps and bounds beyond what Comcast, Cedar Fair, etc share.

 

[clarker99]

What I would really like to know is the percentage of attendance and hotel numbers between WDW and DL. The reason I ask is during the stockholders call and time WDW was asked about he avoided answers.

I think Disney is keeping pretty mute about WDW with the ongoing litigation. From the quarterly report, financials were down at WDW mostly bc of a huge increase in depreciation (Starcruiser). Disney did not mention attendance as a reason.

(Why does every other company report EBITDA to make things look better while Disney always has it in their numbers?)

For more context on attendance, even 0% attendance growth at WDW would be 12.5-14% increase at DLR and that still feels quite high.

 

[Minnie1222]

While the parks maybe busy, it's obvious people aren't staying on site as much as they were a year ago

We need to take into consideration the many rooms that were shuttered for refurbishment. Poly, GF, BW, BC all have recent renovations.

 

[Jrb1979]

Disney could also just be like every other theme park company and just share global revenue and attendance rather than any individualized data.

I find it odd Iger avoids talking about WDW. He was asked in the shareholders call

"What is the consumer demand for parks, esp, WDW.

CFO: Parks... WDW is down a bit from last year's 50th. Other parks and DCL are strong."

It's like they don't want to talk about it. They quickly moved on to other parks.

 

[HokieRaven5]

I find it odd Iger avoids talking about WDW. He was asked in the shareholders call

"What is the consumer demand for parks, esp, WDW.

CFO: Parks... WDW is down a bit from last year's 50th. Other parks and DCL are strong."

It's like they don't want to talk about it. They quickly moved on to other parks.

Unsure of it but it’s possible they’ve been advised to not be as candid about everything related to WDW and Florida and just give short quick approved remarks while the pending litigation seems to be stepping up with CFTOD.

 

[Jrb1979]

Unsure of it but it’s possible they’ve been advised to not be as candid about everything related to WDW and Florida and just give short quick approved remarks while the pending litigation seems to be stepping up with CFTOD.

It could be that. It also feels just more of his heat excuse for low attendance on July 4th. I get this feeling, Iger doesn't have to love of the parks like Eisner did.

 

[Minnie1222]

I find Iger's heat excuse to be valid. We were at WDW during the July 4th week and it was the hottest Florida temp we've ever experienced. I've never seen so many "wet" people walking around. We came solely for the parks but had to give up 2 days due to the heat.

 

[Upatnoon]

The parks are the least of Iger's concerns. Why waste energy focusing on that?
Linear TV, streaming and who will lead Disney after Iger retires are much bigger issues weighing on the company.
Those issues probably don't generate the Internet clicks of stories about that afternoon on the Fourth of July when attendance was slow.
However, investors driving the stock price are more interested in the real problems and cleaning up those issues should be the focus.

 

[Brian Noble]

Might want to throw in "theater tickets are still significantly down from the last pre-pandemic year" to the list of Things
Bob 3.0 Has to Worry About.

 

[fatmanatee]

Sure, movie theater revenue is down and entertainment is undergoing a massive transformation, but has Bob considered the debate going on in this thread? We need to know the breakout of attendance between parks.

 

[RivShore]

Sure, movie theater revenue is down and entertainment is undergoing a massive transformation, but has Bob considered the debate going on in this thread? We need to know the breakout of attendance between parks.

@clarker99 has pretty much given that to us already:

For more context on attendance, even 0% attendance growth at WDW would be 12.5-14% increase at DLR and that still feels quite high.

WDW attendance had to be down minimally, given that math.

 

[clarker99]

@clarker99 has pretty much given that to us already:



WDW attendance had to be down minimally, given that math.

Math works out like this for a 5% domestic increase:

WDW -5%
DLR +20-23%

WDW -2.5%
DLR +16-19%

WDW -1%
DLR +14-16%

WDW 0%
DLR +12.5-14%

WDW +1%
DLR +11-12.5%

WDW +2.5%
DLR +9-9.5%

WDW +5%
DLR +5%

Any negative % attendance growth at WDW puts Disneyland at a very very high increase. Which just doesn't feel realistic at all.

It looks more likely that attendance was actually up in WDW in July-Sept 2023 vs July-Sept 2022. Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[Cfabar1]

Iger reiterated the need for continued large scale investments in The parks.

Who knows how much of a parks guy he is. He has spent a lot of money on building the parks during his first go around as CEO (California Adventure redo, International Parks, EuroDisney MGM Studios redo, SW Galaxy’s Edge, EPCOT Renovation, etc. etc. etc.)

The fact is, they are the least of his problems, and everybody on the call knows it. Talking about them would likely just invite people to poke holes and find problems with the parks business, something Iger is probably not eager to see happen.

 

[RivShore]

Math works out like this for a 5% domestic increase:

WDW -5%
DLR +20-23%

WDW -2.5%
DLR +16-19%

WDW -1%
DLR +14-16%

WDW 0%
DLR +12.5-14%

WDW +1%
DLR +11-12.5%

WDW +2.5%
DLR +9-9.5%

WDW +5%
DLR +5%

Any negative % attendance growth at WDW puts Disneyland at a very very high increase. Which just doesn't feel realistic at all.

It looks more likely that attendance was actually up in WDW in July-Sept 2023 vs July-Sept 2022. Don't shoot the messenger.

Thanks!

I had been thinking that, at worst, WDW was probably around the industry trend of down 2-5%. But after seeing this laid out, I doubt they were near the high end of that rage at all.

 

[deansreef1]

Last time we went was 11/23 and it was really crowded !

 

[Genie+]

WDW trip planning online has exploded the last decade, and none champion summer as the best time to visit. Instead they offer advice on how to manage the heat and oppressive humidity. The message has gotten louder and heard by more ears - avoid summer if possible. When it comes to declining attendance that time of year, I think it has more to do with awareness more than anything else.

 

[reddog21]

WDW trip planning online has exploded the last decade, and none champion summer as the best time to visit. Instead they offer advice on how to manage the heat and oppressive humidity. The message has gotten louder and heard by more ears - avoid summer if possible. When it comes to declining attendance that time of year, I think it has more to do with awareness more than anything else.

Please, everyone go during the other parts of the year so I can have an empty park during the summer!!!!

 

[Disneychick75]

For the past 20 yrs or so, we've planned our trips to start the Thursday before Thanksgiving weekend until Thanksgiving Eve. Weather was perfect and smallish crowds. Going again in May and I am dreading the heat. It's the only time that works for our 2 grandsons though so I'll have to suck it up.

 

[wabbott]

For the past 20 yrs or so, we've planned our trips to start the Thursday before Thanksgiving weekend until Thanksgiving Eve. Weather was perfect and smallish crowds. Going again in May and I am dreading the heat. It's the only time that works for our 2 grandsons though so I'll have to suck it up.

Back many years ago, when we had no choice but go in the summer, we found a tactic that seemed to work somewhat. Rope drop, then back to the room around noon. Wait for the daily afternoon thunderstorm, don our ponchos and just wade right through it. The storms flushed quite a bit of the crowds out, and cooled things off to boot. After the storms, the evenings after dark were relatively pleasant.