Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[yankeesfan123]

Yes there are still essential cast in the parks running rides and doing maintenance. I was more speaking to actual construction projects.

Of course. Didn’t mean to sound like I was disputing you.

 

[Brianstl]

I think the resorts will be in phases as well. They wont fill them all for a long time so why open them all together?

They are taking reservations to them all.

I really think when one park at WDW opens, everything at WDW will open. I just don’t think it makes economic or PR sense not to do it that way. If you only open on a limited basis you send a message to your potential customers that everything isn’t normal and you don’t think it is really safe.

I do actually think they might open with the parks open to resort guests only for the first couple of weeks. This would allow them to work through the kinks of reopening and train employees under the reduced stress of smaller crowds.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

To add to what Brianstl said, while reservations to all resorts are being taken, I wonder if the numbers of reservations per resort is being limited for the weeks at the beginning of the period of reopening? Allowing better control and flow as staff ramp up to full speed..

 

[MichelinMan]

Right, my point was that a lot of people think Disney world will be open by 6/1... but if disney is canceling the theatrical release of a movie on Memorial Day weekend, it adds to the speculation that Disney realizes things will not be “back to normal” by 6/1, and Disney world will not be open by 6/1.

I'm not sure you can infer that 6/1 is a non-starter from the postponement of the theatrical release. Every day that the parks are closed will lose Disney more money and more money - if they open on 6/1, then they are unlikely to be fully back to normal, but will at least be bringing in some revenue. By contrast, postponing a theatrical release will just postpone the income from that movie - you will still realise the full benefit of the revenue, just at a slightly later date. Why release the movie on schedule, and only get 75% of what you expected, when you can postpone and potentially get 100%?

 

[MichelinMan]

Here in CT, the statewide “peak” will be in 2-3 weeks, but if you break it down by county, it’s really the county just outside of NYC that will peak in 2-3 weeks, while the northern county (only about 2 hours away) won’t peak until late May.

Countries in Europe are taking about about 4 weeks to peak - and USA is following roughly the same curve. So I would suggest that a late May peak may be quite late - I expect most of the US to peak by end of April/beginning of May.

I've started tracking data for Florida in my data analysis now - I've found historical daily number of cases, but I'm trying to find data for the last few weeks for how many people have died for each day in Florida - can any of you point me to where I might find that data? I've managed to find data for the last 4 days, but not before that.

 

[rpb718]

They are taking reservations to them all.

I really think when one park at WDW opens, everything at WDW will open. I just don’t think it makes economic or PR sense not to do it that way. If you only open on a limited basis you send a message to your potential customers that everything isn’t normal and you don’t think it is really safe.

I do actually think they might open with the parks open to resort guests only for the first couple of weeks. This would allow them to work through the kinks of reopening and train employees under the reduced stress of smaller crowds.

If before there is a vaccine or proven treatment, there is no "normal" or "safe" place in the world. Anyone sending a message that it would be "safe" is irresponsible. And the "normal" you have in mind is gone. If WDW opens and tries to run "normal" when the 2nd wave hits in the fall, there will not be enough PR in the world to fix that.

 

[vinotinto]

Countries in Europe are taking about about 4 weeks to peak - and USA is following roughly the same curve. So I would suggest that a late May peak may be quite late - I expect most of the US to peak by end of April/beginning of May.

I've started tracking data for Florida in my data analysis now - I've found historical daily number of cases, but I'm trying to find data for the last few weeks for how many people have died for each day in Florida - can any of you point me to where I might find that data? I've managed to find data for the last 4 days, but not before that.

These are the trackers that we check.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/https://covid19.healthdata.org/

 

[yankeesfan123]

I'm not sure you can infer that 6/1 is a non-starter from the postponement of the theatrical release. Every day that the parks are closed will lose Disney more money and more money - if they open on 6/1, then they are unlikely to be fully back to normal, but will at least be bringing in some revenue. By contrast, postponing a theatrical release will just postpone the income from that movie - you will still realise the full benefit of the revenue, just at a slightly later date. Why release the movie on schedule, and only get 75% of what you expected, when you can postpone and potentially get 100%?

Not a postponement of a theatrical release, but moving it to Disney+

they will not see the full revenue.

 

[yankeesfan123]

If before there is a vaccine or proven treatment, there is no "normal" or "safe" place in the world. Anyone sending a message that it would be "safe" is irresponsible. And the "normal" you have in mind is gone. If WDW opens and tries to run "normal" when the 2nd wave hits in the fall, there will not be enough PR in the world to fix that.

The hope is that, if there is a second wave (assuming the full wave dissipates and the parks actually open before the Fall, which is arguable), then we will be prepared with hospital beds, PPE, and maybe not a vaccine but at least medicine to treat the disease.

Doesn’t mean Disney (or other high volume venues such as sports or concerts) should be running just because there’s a treatment.

 

[Brianstl]

If before there is a vaccine or proven treatment, there is no "normal" or "safe" place in the world. Anyone sending a message that it would be "safe" is irresponsible. And the "normal" you have in mind is gone. If WDW opens and tries to run "normal" when the 2nd wave hits in the fall, there will not be enough PR in the world to fix that.

The world is not going to shut down for a year. The goal is to get all areas of the country past what will be the high parts of the curve to get to the point that the medical system won’t crash when we return to a somewhat normal life. This needed to be done, but we can’t keep the country shutdown past the point where the stress on the medical system would be no greater with the return to normal life than a bad seasonal flu season would be.

Nothing in life was completely safe before this and people will accept those same risk after we get past the worst part of this.

 

[Brianstl]

The hope is that, if there is a second wave (assuming the full wave dissipates and the parks actually open before the Fall, which is arguable), then we will be prepared with hospital beds, PPE, and maybe not a vaccine but at least medicine to treat the disease.

Doesn’t mean Disney (or other high volume venues such as sports or concerts) should be running just because there’s a treatment.

The most important thing to work on now is an antibody test. Much evidence suggests that there is a massive percentage of people that contract the virus that never develop any symptoms. When we find how much this has actually already spread through the society we will be much better prepared to make an informed decision about how we go about returning to normal life.

 

[xuxa777]

Still feeling good about a Mid July soft open springs/resorts only etc, the trends in countries ahead of us are looking good, and once we get more testing to get a better handle on it. We really will get a good look and see the light in the US in about 10 days or so, as long as everyone sits tight at home for the next 2 weeks.

 

[xuxa777]

These are the trackers that we check.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/https://covid19.healthdata.org/

Keep in mind the IMHE hasn’t been updated since 4/1 , it will update Today and while good , changes a lot right now, what it says today will change a good bit and then change a good bit the next time, best guess based on limited data etc.

 

[Joe in VA]

Agreed, a vaccine is not guaranteed at all, and could be years away. We can't shut the economy down for that long or the world as we know it is over. The long term effects of us even shutting down for several months are going to be very, very severe, especially for the working class.

 

[lady danger]

Countries in Europe are taking about about 4 weeks to peak - and USA is following roughly the same curve. So I would suggest that a late May peak may be quite late - I expect most of the US to peak by end of April/beginning of May.

The problem with comparing the US to individual European countries is that we’re significantly bigger in terms of our population and landmass. Our peak is likely to last longer because different regions will be hitting their peaks at different times. It’d be much better to look at the state of the entire EU to predict what the US is likely to go through. Their peak clock may have started a couple of weeks ago with Italy, but it won’t end until the other major EU states (and the U.K.) have passed theirs which is going to at least 8 weeks when all is said and done.

 

[xuxa777]

Also agree, the economy will not be shutdown like this till vaccine, we will wade back into opening things up in May , like non essential businesses etc but with strict social distancing and the ease up a bit more in June, pretty much a reversal of how they shut things down, but much slower in opening. Plus we will see a lot of masks.

 

[yankeesfan123]

Also agree, the economy will not be shutdown like this till vaccine, we will wade back into opening things up in May , like non essential businesses etc but with strict social distancing and the ease up a bit more in June, pretty much a reversal of how they shut things down, but much slower in opening. Plus we will see a lot of masks.

And, in keeping with the strict social distancing, it is my belief that large gatherings will be the very last thing to get back up and running.

Trump apparently had a phone call with the heads of all major league sports today. I would love to know what that discussion was like. I really think we will see sports (with crowds) starting before Disney re-opens their doors to the parks.

 

[Jrb1979]

And, in keeping with the strict social distancing, it is my belief that large gatherings will be the very last thing to get back up and running.

Trump apparently had a phone call with the heads of all major league sports today. I would love to know what that discussion was like. I really think we will see sports (with crowds) starting before Disney re-opens their doors to the parks.

With Sports they can play with no crowd if need be and they are also entertainment which people could use to take their minds off things. I have a feeling this is going to last much longer then people are expecting. A lot of that has to do with how different states are reacting to this.

 

[Brett Wyman]

If before there is a vaccine or proven treatment, there is no "normal" or "safe" place in the world. Anyone sending a message that it would be "safe" is irresponsible. And the "normal" you have in mind is gone. If WDW opens and tries to run "normal" when the 2nd wave hits in the fall, there will not be enough PR in the world to fix that.

They stayed open very well into the pandemic this time with little to no negative press.

1. People are allowed to assume risk and can return if they want.
2. When the second wave hits it will hit just like this one with enough time to plan for shutdown again.

There’s no reason they can’t open for awhile and then close again when needed.

 

[fsjking]

The world is not going to shut down for a year. The goal is to get all areas of the country past what will be the high parts of the curve to get to the point that the medical system won’t crash when we return to a somewhat normal life. This needed to be done, but we can’t keep the country shutdown past the point where the stress on the medical system would be no greater with the return to normal life than a bad seasonal flu season would be.

Nothing in life was completely safe before this and people will accept those same risk after we get past the worst part of this.

I'm concerned that the social distancing and lockdowns are just going to move the big spike to mid to late fall. The initial report that got the governments moving on everything showed that very thing based on 3 months of distancing and closures.

Keep in mind the IMHE hasn’t been updated since 4/1 , it will update Today and while good , changes a lot right now, what it says today will change a good bit and then change a good bit the next time, best guess based on limited data etc.

It's good for the historical data that the PP was asking for though. I've been watching that one, but take it with a grain of salt. Predictions are just educated guesses.

With Sports they can play with no crowd if need be and they are also entertainment which people could use to take their minds off things. I have a feeling this is going to last much longer then people are expecting. A lot of that has to do with how different states are reacting to this.

Pro-sports with tv contracts can do that to an extent. There a lot of semi-pro and amateur sports that don't have that luxury. Not to mention, the tv contract doesn't always benefit the venue a great deal and they depend on crowds to pay their bills. I suspect there will be some pushback and teams having to play in different venues due to contracts and building owners refusing to eat the loss.