Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[Krandor]

Then to be frank, there's no point having this thread open as there isn't anything to discuss until Disney makes further announcements about closures, re-openings or construction. All speculation is going to be based on current public health data, otherwise it's baseless and not really worth discussion IMO. Just my two cents.

this is a useful thread if we stay on topic which can be tough. Please don’t encourage rteetz to lock it. That does none of us any good. Let’s just stay on topic and if we can’t it may get locked. Let’s not do that.

 

[Krandor]

Yeah I wouldnt read a while lot into that college program decision. I would say it's expected. Many colleges have cleared out their dorms and students have gone back home. Like I said in another post, transportation is going to be messy for awhile anyway even when the country reopens. It's just going to be too hard to get that program going on June 1. And yes I agree that I don't think interns are the type of staff Disney will utilize to re-start operations. There is going to be a process here to restart and employees will be brought back in phases as it ramps up. Interns and performers are going to be the last people brought back on.

the cp decision is a big deal. Even if they got all

Regarding the suspension of the College/Intern Program for those who were scheduled to arrive in June: I am thinking that two major factors in that decision are (1) they would want to reactivate all the furloughed employees first and rehire locals, etc. before bringing in college kids from around the country, and (2) the housing arrangements for those in the DCP being such close quarters and possibly igniting a flare-up (as has been mentioned earlier). I would think the program facilitators would want as normal a WDW as possible to bring DCP participants into, rather than a soon-to-open or just-recently-reopened scenario. Just some thoughts....

The problem is Disney relies a lot on the cp for manpower. Even if they bring back all furloughed and local employees first they cannot open 100% with just that. If they open without cp it won’t be all 4 parks.

 

[MichelinMan]

I was pretty optimistic that the parks would be open 1st June, on the basis of how the virus is peaking in both Europe, and also the USA as a whole. I am a safety, risk and statistic expert, and I've been doing quite a lot of number crunching on the figures coming out of various regions, and initially, Florida looked like it was following the trends from other regions. But my latest analysis of data seems to indicate that Florida is being pretty successful in flattening the curve, which will push out the peak date somewhat. So I have now changed my opinion, and think that there is a reducing chance of the parks being open 1st June - I would say that a 1st July date is more likely. We arrive 6th July, so I would place the chances of our trip going ahead no better than 50/50 at the moment.

Even if it does open by the time of our holiday, I'm worried what the experience will be like. The cancellation of the CP does worry me - does this mean that one of the parks might need to close? If so, that could be enough for us to postpone our trip. This is likely to be the last trip we make to WDW as a family, and with the amount we are paying for the trip, we don't really want to it to be compromised on quality. A closure of any of MK, AK, or DHS would be enough for us to cancel, as we want to experience the newer rides that are there since our last visit. EPCOT we could possibly cope without - not much new there at the moment, and the construction going on makes it less appealing. I could see some benefit for Disney in keeping EPCOT closed a bit longer - it would allow them to get on with the construction work much more easily. However the lost revenue from the restaurants might be an issue. But closing a main park would potentially make crowds in the other parks worse. So my gut feeling is that if the parks open, all will open at once, to spread out crowds.

However, I can easily see Disney closing one of the water parks - and closing one of those isn't a deal breaker for us. Likewise other stuff like miniature golf. Individual restaurants or food kiosks might well be closed as well - numbers are likely to be lower than usual (I can't see a flood of people coming in the first few weeks the parks open back up).

But for foreign visitors, it won't just be what is going on at Disney - I'm from the UK, and whether Universal, SeaWorld and Discovery Cove are open as well will factor into our decision - if they aren't, then even if Disney is fully open, we will postpone the trip until next year. However, I suspect all the parks will try to co-ordinate opening, because if they don't, the first park to open is just going to get flooded with guests. One way around this is to limit attendance to resort guests only at WDW - that would be nice for us, as we are staying on-site. But that could end up with more crowds going to the other Orlando parks - so I think it would be better not to do that, for the greater good of Orlando tourism.

 

[Jrb1979]

I think a lot of you are over optimistic on the pent up demand and the amount of people who are going to flood the parks. The demand may be there but the money won't be. Half a million Canadians applied yesterday applied for the wage subsidy for those out of work. There is going to lots of people that won't have the money to do Disney for a long while. I don't Disney or any Orlando park is going to have to worry about attendance for awhile.

 

[lilypgirl]

I still believe WDW will open May 19th. That gives them 12 days before June 1st to get things going. They may only open the parks to resort guest and local AP holders so it won't be crowded. I believe Disney Springs will be fully open as locals will keep the restaurants and shops busy plus a lot of the places at Disney Springs are not Disney owned. By opening on May 19th it will let them slowly restock everything, hire cast members etc. but still generate some revenue. I don't see them opening the parks in stages. It will be all or nothing but they may only open some rides partially like one side of Space Mountain, one side of Pirates, run less boats on Jungle Cruise , only one theatre for Soarin" and Flight of Passage, one or 2 parts of TSMM etc. I also see no add on events, no Fantasmic and possibly only a short firework show but no stage shows at MK.

I like your way of thinking!

 

[Remy is Up]

I think a lot of you are over optimistic on the pent up demand and the amount of people who are going to flood the parks. The demand may be there but the money won't be. Half a million Canadians applied yesterday applied for the wage subsidy for those out of work. There is going to lots of people that won't have the money to do Disney for a long while. I don't Disney or any Orlando park is going to have to worry about attendance for awhile.

Yep. We are past the june window but people want to remain optimistic. I understand that. It's just not realistic. Hoping for the july august window to work out

 

[lilypgirl]

What do you think of the chances they may do health checks for awhile when they re-open? I've read some speculation that they may do something like that where check to see if people have a fever before being admitted in.

Now obviously this isn't foul-proof since apparently a good number of people that are positive are asymptomatic (especially children). But it could at least keep out the people who are obviously sick and still trying to get in.

I think that would be kind of weird . I can assure you if either of my kids walked through that gate on a hot summer afternoon both would test for a fever. My daughter in kindergarten would get sent home every afternoon after recess for running a fever. Finally my pediatrician lost it and called the school letting them know that taking the temperature of a child who just came in from recess on a hot Fort Sill, OK afternoon is pointless and of course she feels like she was burning up its 100 degrees outside. He was French and his bed side manner was not as kind and gentle as one would like but it got the school to stop calling me.

 

[DavidHobart]

OK let me clarify. I don’t see there being enough of a threat of litigation for Disney to base their decision on when to re-open on it.
Disney certainly wouldn’t have to prove that the person didn’t catch COVID-19 at WDW.

I believe the principal liability issue would not be re guests, but rather be cast members contracting the disease at work (or arguably at work), especially if there is "pressure" for them to work, because an employer has a duty to provide a safe workplace.

(There are obvious limits to what can be reasonably expected of an essential employer, as we sadly see in our health care system, but there is a "greater good" argument than can be made there that cannot be made of something as inessential as a theme park.)

 

[jerry557]

They aren't going to reopen everything at once. Even when you look at Shanghai, they are doing it in phases. The resort and areas around it are now open, and the park will reopen in the coming weeks. They can't just pick a day and reopen everything and act like nothing ever happened. It's like a train that is now stopped. They can't just go back to full speed. It's got to build up again.

To get to the point where we have all of WDW fully operational with all experiences open to pre-covid19 levels may take a very long time. Considering the fact that we will likely have a virus spreading to some extent for many months or even years to come, some attractions may never reopen or may need to be modified. If that is the course they take, then they don't need to be fully staffed immediately.

I'm a little surprised that Disney even halted construction. You would think they would take advantage of the shutdown to complete projects that may be harder to complete when fully open. For the most part, construction in Florida is considered "essential" by the governor. And contractors and construction sites are still operating. So Disney did not have to halt construction.

 

[MichelinMan]

I think a lot of you are over optimistic on the pent up demand and the amount of people who are going to flood the parks. The demand may be there but the money won't be. Half a million Canadians applied yesterday applied for the wage subsidy for those out of work. There is going to lots of people that won't have the money to do Disney for a long while. I don't Disney or any Orlando park is going to have to worry about attendance for awhile.

Whilst I agree with you in the longer or medium term, for a month or two I think there will be pent up demand.

Lots of people (myself included) are already tied into going for their dates, and could lose money by not going, so are likely to go ahead if they can. Sure, there will be some people cancelling, but that is likely to be offset by others who have had to postpone their trips from earlier.

 

[GeorgiaHoo]

Yep. We are past the june window but people want to remain optimistic. I understand that. It's just not realistic. Hoping for the july august window to work out

Virginia is currently on stay-at-home orders until June 10. Now that may change in the next two months if there are dramatic improvements, but I would be surprised if Disney reopened while any state had stay-at-home orders in place. Seems like it would be a PR nightmare, especially if it was subsequently shown that Disney was a source of an outbreak.

 

[AMW86]

What do you think of the chances they may do health checks for awhile when they re-open? I've read some speculation that they may do something like that where check to see if people have a fever before being admitted in.

Now obviously this isn't foul-proof since apparently a good number of people that are positive are asymptomatic (especially children). But it could at least keep out the people who are obviously sick and still trying to get in.

I would say pretty good! https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/bob-iger-on-disney-after-coronoavirus-51586252700
Bob Iger: For DIsney parks to reopen, may need to start doing temperature checks of visitors.

 

[Remy is Up]

They aren't going to reopen everything at once. Even when you look at Shanghai, they are doing it in phases. The resort and areas around it are now open, and the park will reopen in the coming weeks. They can't just pick a day and reopen everything and act like nothing ever happened. It's like a train that is now stopped. They can't just go back to full speed. It's got to build up again.

To get to the point where we have all of WDW fully operational with all experiences open to pre-covid19 levels may take a very long time. Considering the fact that we will likely have a virus spreading to some extent for many months or even years to come, some attractions may never reopen or may need to be modified. If that is the course they take, then they don't need to be fully staffed immediately.

I'm a little surprised that Disney even halted construction. You would think they would take advantage of the shutdown to complete projects that may be harder to complete when fully open. For the most part, construction in Florida is considered "essential" by the governor. And contractors and construction sites are still operating. So Disney did not have to halt construction.

Actually in some cases they did, as they were contracted 3rd party workers and Disney had no say so in whether or not they were working. 3rd party and Union contracts can get in the way sometimes.

 

[jerry557]

Virginia is currently on stay-at-home orders until June 10. Now that may change in the next two months if there are dramatic improvements, but I would be surprised if Disney reopened while any state had stay-at-home orders in place. Seems like it would be a PR nightmare, especially if it was subsequently shown that Disney was a source of an outbreak.

I can tell you Florida won't be staying closed to mid-June. That is for sure. The governor didn't even want to close it for the current 30 days as it is. New models are showing Florida is going to hit the peak earlier than expected, around April 21. So if that happens, most of the state will be open by Mothers Day. I don't think Disney will reopen that soon. But businesses in Florida won't sit around and wait for Virginia.

 

[Remy is Up]

Virginia is currently on stay-at-home orders until June 10. Now that may change in the next two months if there are dramatic improvements, but I would be surprised if Disney reopened while any state had stay-at-home orders in place. Seems like it would be a PR nightmare, especially if it was subsequently shown that Disney was a source of an outbreak.

Yep and a lot of other factors in play. I think even those booked in early to mid July are risky at best on whether or not parks may be open, even in a limited capacity. Each day the window moves out a a bit further.

 

[wareagle57]

the cp decision is a big deal. Even if they got all


The problem is Disney relies a lot on the cp for manpower. Even if they bring back all furloughed and local employees first they cannot open 100% with just that. If they open without cp it won’t be all 4 parks.

I'm not sure how true this is. Of course none of us have the actual numbers and this is just speculation on my part. You're right that the CPs are a large % of the working CMs. However, there are tons of non CP CM's that are underemployed and never get enough hours because the CP kids are getting them. Disney uses CP as cheap labor and to prevent regular CMs from getting paid OT. So unless CMs make up like 30% of all front line CMs, then I don't think it's true that they are needed to reopen all 4 parks (ignoring the obvious World Showcase problem). They won't be opening at "100%" no matter what. But it won't be because lack of labor.

 

[Remy is Up]

I can tell you Florida won't be staying closed to mid-June. That is for sure. The governor didn't even want to close it for the current 30 days as it is. New models are showing Florida is going to hit the peak earlier than expected, around April 21. So if that happens, most of the state will be open by Mothers Day. I don't think Disney will reopen that soon. But businesses in Florida won't sit around and wait for Virginia.

Florida will stay closed as long as it needs to. The governor wants to be re-elected and he felt the pressure of officials and constituents calling him ignorant for leaving things open as long as he did. Florida needs tourism but Florida also cant afford an influx of people from states that are having issues and bring it with them. I could see some things open by mid june as the rebound begins, but, anyplace that allows large gatherings ( sporting events, concerts, festivals, parks etc) will not be up and running because of the fear of out of country or state travellers bringing it with them.

 

[wareagle57]

I can tell you Florida won't be staying closed to mid-June. That is for sure. The governor didn't even want to close it for the current 30 days as it is. New models are showing Florida is going to hit the peak earlier than expected, around April 21. So if that happens, most of the state will be open by Mothers Day. I don't think Disney will reopen that soon. But businesses in Florida won't sit around and wait for Virginia.

Considering our size (3rd most populated state) and the fact that our timeline started about the same time as NYC, I think Florida is doing very well for all the crap we've been given by the media ect. We were supposed to be the next epicenter after NY according to many due to all the snowbirds that migrate between the 2 places and a high elderly population meaning more deaths. But it hasn't happened. The 4 counties that surround Disney still only have a combined 1,300 cases and 20 deaths. Even Miami-Dade county were it's "really bad" only has 40 deaths as of now.

New York went from 100 cases to 15,000 cases in 15 days. Florida was at 100 cases 24 days ago and we still haven't reached 15,000 cases. Meanwhile they are still riding the subway in NYC...

 

[wareagle57]

Florida will stay closed as long as it needs to. The governor wants to be re-elected and he felt the pressure of officials and constituents calling him ignorant for leaving things open as long as he did. Florida needs tourism but Florida also cant afford an influx of people from states that are having issues and bring it with them. I could see some things open by mid june as the rebound begins, but, anyplace that allows large gatherings ( sporting events, concerts, festivals, parks etc) will not be up and running because of the fear of out of country or state travellers bringing it with them.

This is the biggest problem for the parks for sure. Only way the parks open is if the President does what we should have done a month earlier than we did and shut down travel from out of country without a test. But even that might not be enough, we might need to close state boarders too.

 

[Spridell]

Iger suggesting possible temperature checks.

I figured they probably will

Edit:
@AMW86 posted before me. Please delete my post.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bob-iger-on-disney-after-coronoavirus-51586252700