Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[GeorgiaHoo]

I can tell you Florida won't be staying closed to mid-June. That is for sure. The governor didn't even want to close it for the current 30 days as it is. New models are showing Florida is going to hit the peak earlier than expected, around April 21. So if that happens, most of the state will be open by Mothers Day. I don't think Disney will reopen that soon. But businesses in Florida won't sit around and wait for Virginia.

I wasn't opining on what other businesses might do. I mean, Florida is just catching up to other states that were hit earlier. This is from this morning's Orlando Sentinel:

"It rolled out its updated projections on Sunday to show Florida could see its biggest surge in COVID-19 deaths in the next three weeks before leveling off in May and into June. The range shows a low end of 3,629 deaths and high end of 11,242 deaths with the median at 6,770 deaths in the state."

So a peak in late April sounds about right, but deaths "into June" sounds like a problem. I still think the earliest Disney reopens is mid-June but we'll see how it plays out.

 

[MichelinMan]

I would say pretty good! https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/bob-iger-on-disney-after-coronoavirus-51586252700
Bob Iger: For DIsney parks to reopen, may need to start doing temperature checks of visitors.

Doing temperature checks isn't foolproof. We have been doing temperature checks for workers before travelling offshore to work on oil rigs, and we have had some problems with women going through the menopause who have registered higher temperatures and so were not allowed to travel offshore.

 

[MichelinMan]

This is the biggest problem for the parks for sure. Only way the parks open is if the President does what we should have done a month earlier than we did and shut down travel from out of country without a test. But even that might not be enough, we might need to close state boarders too.

Why limit travel from outside of the US entirely, especially from countries that are further along the curve than the US? I suspect it will be lifting restrictions from other countries on a case by case basis.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1247516928559677440

 

[Spaceguy55]

New York went from 100 cases to 15,000 cases in 15 days. Florida was at 100 cases 24 days ago and we still haven't reached 15,000 cases. Meanwhile they are still riding the subway in NYC...

The problem with WDW is that they will have the same problem as NYC when it comes to the buses and monorail..but the Skyliner would be okay, maybe.

 

[kymom99]

Doing temperature checks isn't foolproof. We have been doing temperature checks for workers before travelling offshore to work on oil rigs, and we have had some problems with women going through the menopause who have registered higher temperatures and so were not allowed to travel offshore.

In my opinion temperature checks would just be for show. By now we all know you can have this virus without an elevated temperature

 

[Sandiz08]

Doing temperature checks on guests would make people feel better about going to Disney. Not going to be perfect , but it’s better than nothing, as the virus isn’t going to go away.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

I think a lot of you are over optimistic on the pent up demand and the amount of people who are going to flood the parks. The demand may be there but the money won't be. Half a million Canadians applied yesterday applied for the wage subsidy for those out of work. There is going to lots of people that won't have the money to do Disney for a long while. I don't Disney or any Orlando park is going to have to worry about attendance for awhile.

And those numbers are reflective that those applying yesterday were born in January, February or March.

There will be more applications every day this week based on birth month..
today - April, May & June
tomorrow - July, August & September
Thursday - October, November & December

those who couldn’t get through can apply anytime Friday or over the weekend - it will go this way until all who require assistance are able to get their application in.

A staggering number by the time all is said & done...

 

[Brett Wyman]

Florida will stay closed as long as it needs to. The governor wants to be re-elected and he felt the pressure of officials and constituents calling him ignorant for leaving things open as long as he did. Florida needs tourism but Florida also cant afford an influx of people from states that are having issues and bring it with them. I could see some things open by mid june as the rebound begins, but, anyplace that allows large gatherings ( sporting events, concerts, festivals, parks etc) will not be up and running because of the fear of out of country or state travellers bringing it with them.

Well Florida is one of the last states to start their "curve". So most states would be much more worried about Floridans entering their states post May 1st. By the time Florida has exited their curve, and can even begin to think about opening tourist attractions, other states will not be the issue.

 

[jlwhitney]

Doing temperature checks isn't foolproof. We have been doing temperature checks for workers before travelling offshore to work on oil rigs, and we have had some problems with women going through the menopause who have registered higher temperatures and so were not allowed to travel offshore.

My kids from 6 months to 3 years would be denied all the time based on a temperature check since they ran fevers all the time due to teething. But nothing crazy high, like 100.4 , I think if you screen for above 101 it would be a bit better and honestly most people once a fever is that high feels like crap anyways are don't tend to go out.

 

[lovethesun12]

I can tell you Florida won't be staying closed to mid-June. That is for sure. The governor didn't even want to close it for the current 30 days as it is. New models are showing Florida is going to hit the peak earlier than expected, around April 21. So if that happens, most of the state will be open by Mothers Day. I don't think Disney will reopen that soon. But businesses in Florida won't sit around and wait for Virginia.

The thing is people like to live in the present. Reopening the state will be based on two factors - economics and public health/loss of life. Right now to some it probably *feels* like the economy is more important with rates of infections and deaths doubling every 10 days due to all these restrictions (thank you Italy).

But Florida hasn't yet experienced "the surge" some places have (and perhaps they never will - who knows?) which results from few restrictions and doubling rates of every 2-3 days. If they reopen too early, it would probably take two weeks to a month to get back to those rates but they may experience this (especially if there are no drugs/etc approved) and when you see infections and deaths doubling every 2-3 days suddenly the potential loss of life of those around a person might become more important than the economy leading to a second shut down.

On the other hand they might try to avoid that situation altogether and not reopen. Or there may be things like drugs/tests to control. It's just to unpredictable to know for certain when anything will open.

 

[xuxa777]

The problem with WDW is that they will have the same problem as NYC when it comes to the buses and monorail..but the Skyliner would be okay, maybe.

The subway is critical for people to get around in New York, essential workers etc. in Disney they would just load people on half full buses and monorail.

 

[AMW86]

Iger suggesting possible temperature checks.

I figured they probably will

Edit:
@AMW86 posted before me. Please delete my post.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bob-iger-on-disney-after-coronoavirus-51586252700

Great minds... Yours is easier to read without a paywall!

 

[xuxa777]

I was pretty optimistic that the parks would be open 1st June, on the basis of how the virus is peaking in both Europe, and also the USA as a whole. I am a safety, risk and statistic expert, and I've been doing quite a lot of number crunching on the figures coming out of various regions, and initially, Florida looked like it was following the trends from other regions. But my latest analysis of data seems to indicate that Florida is being pretty successful in flattening the curve, which will push out the peak date somewhat. So I have now changed my opinion, and think that there is a reducing chance of the parks being open 1st June - I would say that a 1st July date is more likely. We arrive 6th July, so I would place the chances of our trip going ahead no better than 50/50 at the moment.

Even if it does open by the time of our holiday, I'm worried what the experience will be like. The cancellation of the CP does worry me - does this mean that one of the parks might need to close? If so, that could be enough for us to postpone our trip. This is likely to be the last trip we make to WDW as a family, and with the amount we are paying for the trip, we don't really want to it to be compromised on quality. A closure of any of MK, AK, or DHS would be enough for us to cancel, as we want to experience the newer rides that are there since our last visit. EPCOT we could possibly cope without - not much new there at the moment, and the construction going on makes it less appealing. I could see some benefit for Disney in keeping EPCOT closed a bit longer - it would allow them to get on with the construction work much more easily. However the lost revenue from the restaurants might be an issue. But closing a main park would potentially make crowds in the other parks worse. So my gut feeling is that if the parks open, all will open at once, to spread out crowds.

However, I can easily see Disney closing one of the water parks - and closing one of those isn't a deal breaker for us. Likewise other stuff like miniature golf. Individual restaurants or food kiosks might well be closed as well - numbers are likely to be lower than usual (I can't see a flood of people coming in the first few weeks the parks open back up).

But for foreign visitors, it won't just be what is going on at Disney - I'm from the UK, and whether Universal, SeaWorld and Discovery Cove are open as well will factor into our decision - if they aren't, then even if Disney is fully open, we will postpone the trip until next year. However, I suspect all the parks will try to co-ordinate opening, because if they don't, the first park to open is just going to get flooded with guests. One way around this is to limit attendance to resort guests only at WDW - that would be nice for us, as we are staying on-site. But that could end up with more crowds going to the other Orlando parks - so I think it would be better not to do that, for the greater good of Orlando tourism.

Appreciate the optimism, but to logistically open on 6/1 is pretty much impossible at this point (Springs might be able to, but that is it). That being said I think the US and all other states are already peaking now or have over the weekend. Even with that news I don't think Disney can pull off opening that soon nor should they. Mid July and then august for the parks.

Temperature checks and masks will be happening, Disney looks like they are signaling that. The masks are the last thing they want to do, just for the optics but might be mandated by the government.

 

[mshanson3121]

Doing temperature checks isn't foolproof. We have been doing temperature checks for workers before travelling offshore to work on oil rigs, and we have had some problems with women going through the menopause who have registered higher temperatures and so were not allowed to travel offshore.

Not only that but, again, the biggest problem with Covid is that many infected people are asymptomatic and not only that, for those who do become symptomatic, they're contagious before they become so. So... temperature checks really are pointless. They might catch a few people, while letting dozens of other contagious people through. It's just a PR move to make people feel like they're actually doing something.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

Doing temperature checks on guests would make people feel better about going to Disney.

I disagree. The kind of people who would be that nervous, that temperature check theater would reassure them, would likely not venture to Disney World while all of this is going on, anyway. As well they shouldn't. And other guests would be anxious about false positives due to heat from spending all day in the summer sun, women's hormone fluctuations, faulty equipment, etc. I recently had a forehead temperature check done by a nurse, and one side of my forehead registered one degree hotter than the other. And every park, hotel, & Disney Springs location at WDW is not going to be manned by nurses, either.

I can also only imagine the scenes and hold-ups caused by families being turned away at the gates due to their overheated 5 year-olds not passing the checks.

 

[jerry557]

Well Florida is one of the last states to start their "curve". So most states would be much more worried about Floridans entering their states post May 1st. By the time Florida has exited their curve, and can even begin to think about opening tourist attractions, other states will not be the issue.

Florida isn't last anymore. The models were updated. It was originally showing May 7 for Florida peak. Now the new models are showing it happening April 21.....2 weeks from now. It can change again, but it's hard to imagine DeSantis keeping the Florida economy closed beyond Mothers Day if that is how it pans out.

 

[xuxa777]

With the way things are trending, I imagine Disney corporate is moving to the phase of getting things in place to open back up as oppossed to triaging the shutdown. Lots of things are going to change in the next few weeks. The trend is that the worst is over. I don't think they will be able to set a date for reopening until the end of the month but I feel confident they will be able to then. You will start seeing the stay at home orders lifted earlier especially for the ones going into June.

 

[MichelinMan]

The thing is people like to live in the present. Reopening the state will be based on two factors - economics and public health/loss of life. Right now to some it probably *feels* like the economy is more important with rates of infections and deaths doubling every 10 days due to all these restrictions (thank you Italy).

But Florida hasn't yet experienced "the surge" some places have (and perhaps they never will - who knows?) which results from few restrictions and doubling rates of every 2-3 days. If they reopen too early, it would probably take two weeks to a month to get back to those rates but they may experience this (especially if there are no drugs/etc approved) and when you see infections and deaths doubling every 2-3 days suddenly the potential loss of life of those around a person might become more important than the economy leading to a second shut down.

On the other hand they might try to avoid that situation altogether and not reopen. Or there may be things like drugs/tests to control. It's just to unpredictable to know for certain when anything will open.

You are quite correct to state that this will need to be a balancing act between the economy and public health. There was a study done by one of the universities here in the UK, that reckons the tipping point is a reduction of about 6.4% in the economy. If the economy is affected, then that has a long term effect on the health of a nation too. As a point of reference, the financial crash we had a decade ago was a bit more than 6.4%. So if the lockdowns continue for too long, they could actually be stocking up more problems than they solve.

So on that basis I was optimistic that the 1st June date was a realistic date to aim for - but I'm not so convinced now for Florida (although for many countries and states that is a very realistic date).

 

[xuxa777]

You are quite correct to state that this will need to be a balancing act between the economy and public health. There was a study done by one of the universities here in the UK, that reckons the tipping point is a reduction of about 6.4% in the economy. If the economy is affected, then that has a long term effect on the health of a nation too. As a point of reference, the financial crash we had a decade ago was a bit more than 6.4%. So if the lockdowns continue for too long, they could actually be stocking up more problems than they solve.

So on that basis I was optimistic that the 1st June date was a realistic date to aim for - but I'm not so convinced now for Florida (although for many countries and states that is a very realistic date).

If any state opens up quicker for the economy it will be Florida.