Hurricane Dorian / WDW Theme Parks Discussion

mfwmarks said:
FLL announced reopening at noon TODAY. All good signs. Anyone with plans Thursday or later should keep an eye but not worry too much! Would be very surprising if come Thursday you could tell anything happened at WDW and MCO. We fly in Thursday, but IF I were flying in Wednesday morn I would be keeping a close eye on things. WDW should be fine, but make a plan for what you will do if MCO is closed most of the day tomorrow.

Wondering what crowds will be like Thursday and through the weekend. I think a lot of people who were going the past weekend switched to this coming weekend. Thoughts?
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That's what I'm wondering too. I wanted to gauge how busy SWGE and MNSSHP were this past weekend and watch the crowds this week to get an idea how it will be for my trip this weekend. That is all out the window now!
 
AngiTN said:
Every model there is now shows WDW totally in the clear and FL itself almost all the way out of even a cone of uncertainty. So all are in agreement at this point. Not sure I've ever seen all models agree to something so I guess there's no chance the high pressure you are talking about steers it anywhere to FL. If there was, at least one model would show that, no?
Granted, when talking about Mother Nature it's impossible to say never but odds must be in FL favor this time.


There's always a good chance the curfew will be lifted well before then with the newest forecast.
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The cone of certainty pertains to the eye of the storm, not the effects of the storm overall. Just because you're "outside the cone" doesn't mean you won't feel any hurricane effects. It just means the worst winds won't pass directly over your area.

According to the latest GFS model run, Orlando is still expected to get winds up to 60mph later tonight and into tomorrow morning as the eastern edge of Dorian clips the state of Florida.

That's why Orlando is under a Tropical Storm Warning.

The "X" on the map below is Orlando (roughly). The model run shows where Dorian is expected to be 4:30 am tomorrow (Wednesday). Orlando stays right along the western edge of the red (approx. 60mph winds) for a good 8-12 hours tomorrow morning.


432541
 
That doesn't jive with the weather reports I've followed this morning. Guess they still don't know as much about where it's going as they were letting on. Reports this morning all sounded really certain.
 
AngiTN said:
That doesn't jive with the weather reports I've followed this morning. Guess they still don't know as much about where it's going as they were letting on. Reports this morning all sounded really certain.
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What's not jiving? Orlando is still very likely going to have some wind and especially rain impacts from Dorian. NOAA/NHC's latest update put Orlando as less than 5% chance of getting hurricane force winds. That doesn't mean it won't get hit by the hurricane's system. It's just probably not going to get hit by the parts with sustained wind speeds over 74MPH.
 
AngiTN said:
That doesn't jive with the weather reports I've followed this morning. Guess they still don't know as much about where it's going as they were letting on. Reports this morning all sounded really certain.
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There's certainly a consensus now that there won't be "landfall" (ie, the "eye" of the storm making its way to land), but there's still enough margin for error as to how close the eye actually gets to the coast that will play a role in how high the winds come inland.

I'm kind of surprised NWS hasn't extended the tropical storm warning past tonight at 10pm*, but maybe they're waiting for the next round of models to come out.

*Actually just went to NWS page for Orlando and it says the tropical storm warning is in effect "until further notice."
 
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ThistleMae said:
Someone who lives there told me that to be safe don't plan anything until after the end of October. Do we know if there is a record of anything after November 1st?
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Hurricane season is 6 months out of the year, June - Nov. However, it is Aug and Sept that is peak season.
 
ThistleMae said:
Someone who lives there told me that to be safe don't plan anything until after the end of October. Do we know if there is a record of anything after November 1st?
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Personally, I have ruled out any trips between July and October. While there have been storms in November, there haven't been many to hit the U.S.
 
SaintsManiac said:
Personally, I have ruled out any trips between July and October. While there have been storms in November, there haven't been many to hit the U.S.
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Yep. I always plan our big summer vacations in June. I want to be home in case I need to prepare the house, etc during the peak of the storm season.
 
I know I have a long way to go, but do we think that there will be a high chance of a storm around Halloween? That is when I will be there and although I am not worried, I know it is still hurricane season and I feel like this season there haven't been many/it started later? I just want to be prepared.
 
disneyfreak202 said:
I know I have a long way to go, but do we think that there will be a high chance of a storm around Halloween? That is when I will be there and although I am not worried, I know it is still hurricane season and I feel like this season there haven't been many/it started later? I just want to be prepared.
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There is absolutely no way to predict that.
 
disneyfreak202 said:
I know I have a long way to go, but do we think that there will be a high chance of a storm around Halloween? That is when I will be there and although I am not worried, I know it is still hurricane season and I feel like this season there haven't been many/it started later? I just want to be prepared.
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The odds are lower but there is absolutely the chance you see a full blown hurricane as that is still hurricane season.
 
I've been watching the storm non-stop since late Monday last week, as I have to for my job. The forecast has changed over and over and over, as is very common with hurricanes. They're highly unpredictable, especially when trying to project more than a half day out. The current trend is very encouraging, the storm is weakening considerably and trending away from having an impact on WDW. However, just stay tuned.

As for what will happen over Halloween, completely impossible to say. That's the end of hurricane season, so odds are lower, but doesn't mean it can't happen.

For me, we'd go to WDW anytime. In fact, summer is our favorite time. WDW is pretty far inland and well isolated from a major hurricane. It's pretty uncommon for them to take a direct hit.
 
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