Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[sky2823]

Maybe I’m wrong but two DVC resorts in Orlando in full sales mode at the same time will cannibalize the buyer. It’s one thing if one is winding down (CCV or Poly) which has obviously happened but if there are still a ton of points for RIV it will impact Reflections and vice versa.

However, I guess they could have a new vision and do not care if a resort is sold out and just think of themselves as an ice cream shop with multiple flavors and all resorts are for sale all the time pending inventory. This could be the case... dunno

They could continue to ROFR a ton and continue to take a chunk out of the resale market by just offering all the flavors all the time.

To the other posters point, they would just rent out what’s not sold etc... and not care about closing resorts out anymore.

i guess one part of destroying the resale market is loosing the idea of a “closed out resort”.

 

[jarestel]

It's interesting to read the various spins folks put on the numbers. The handful of anti-Riviera posters who show up on every Riviera thread always see doom and gloom for the future of the resort and OTOH the Riviera owners are obviously more inclined to see rosy futures. I have no horse in the race, I neither own nor have any intention of owning at Riviera and I care not about resale restrictions either. But I am very confident that Riviera will sell out in however long it takes (SSR sold out and that resort took a way more severe bashing than Riviera is taking and there weren't even resale restrictions then).

Of course having said that, I do think the resort is probably not selling as well as DVD had hoped though because they raised the price per point but then added incentives that kept the overall price very close to what it was. I don't think they do that if expectations are being met.

 

[ClemTig]

For the record, I'm not anti-RIV as much as anti-Skyliner.

A ski-lift, doing a job a monorail could do almost as well.

 

[AKNOTTS66]

For the record, I'm not anti-RIV as much as anti-Skyliner.

A ski-lift, doing a job a monorail could do almost as well.

The problem with the monorail is its insanely expensive to expand. I remember reading an article saying track is so many million per quarter of mile verse the the skyliner which is a fraction of the cost.

 

[Wakey]

That's a pretty big overreaction from one statistic. Sales at Riviera have been increasing each month with January being the highest. They've sold over a million so far....statistics can be taken out of context to prove anyone's point so I'm not going to get into a battle using different statistics to counter any negative use of them. But as others have said, time will tell but from all accounts sales are doing just fine.

If my sales were down double digits in my business like for like monthly, I would not be happy- unless of course, I was making more money due to higher margin. That latter aspect we do not know.

 

[RivShore]

Maybe I’m wrong but two DVC resorts in Orlando in full sales mode at the same time will cannibalize the buyer. It’s one thing if one is winding down (CCV or Poly) which has obviously happened but if there are still a ton of points for RIV it will impact Reflections and vice versa.

However, I guess they could have a new vision and do not care if a resort is sold out and just think of themselves as an ice cream shop with multiple flavors and all resorts are for sale all the time pending inventory. This could be the case... dunno

They could continue to ROFR a ton and continue to take a chunk out of the resale market by just offering all the flavors all the time.

To the other posters point, they would just rent out what’s not sold etc... and not care about closing resorts out anymore.

i guess one part of destroying the resale market is loosing the idea of a “closed out resort”.

What would you consider a ton of points left? RIV will easily be at 20-25% sold by the end of Feb. and that will include sales data after having been open just 45 days. With two'ish years of sales before Reflections, I would think it easily gets to 75% sold.

And to my earlier point, they are very very different resorts that would appeal to different buyers so there should not be much cannibalization (families with young children who prefer Mk vs. older and childless families who prefer Ep and the festivals or HS and SW).

 

[ClemTig]

The problem with the monorail is its insanely expensive to expand. I remember reading an article saying track is so many million per quarter of mile verse the the skyliner which is a fraction of the cost.

Of course, my reply was in jest. I doubt we ever see the monorail system expanded. The most reasonable estimates I have seen say it would cost between 50-200 Million per mile to expand, depending on the source. The Skyliner cost was less than 10 Million from what I've seen.

 

[Wakey]

What would you consider a ton of points left? RIV will easily be at 20-25% sold by the end of Feb. and that will include sales data after having been open just 45 days. With two'ish years of sales before Reflections, I would think it easily gets to 75% sold.

And to my earlier point, they are very very different resorts that would appeal to different buyers so there should not be much cannibalization (families with young children who prefer Mk vs. older and childless families who prefer Ep and the festivals or HS and SW).

And this is what we do not know. They may have intended all along that as long as Riv sells out on time, then that is what the plan was and fine. No issues.

But given the revenue DVD gains from DVC, I would be surprised if they would happily take such a hit- as I say, unless sales miraculously turn around the next few months, number of points sold will be double digit down like for like. That simply means lost customers who are not buying. Unless this is all planned by people much cleverer than i, if it was my business i would be spitting that sales are down by double digits, unless as I say, profit is up. And if that is for some reason because of the onboarding of new resorts being too slow and not having two available for longer then I would not be happy with the planning, even if that is because the last resort (Copper Creek) sold out quicker than expected.
I will be very interested to see how it pans out, but as a business, rather than as a resort, the business seems to have a huge plunge in points sold- a pretty important statistic one would think?

 

[sky2823]

I agree they are different resorts. There is an educated buyer who likes different flavors, but i have to think a lot of the current buyers are emotional vacationers and have no idea what kind of buyer they are....

regardless, I don’t think there are twice as many buyers out there wanting different resorts so that each resort will have stellar sales. Maybe I’m wrong and there are a ton of buyers sitting on the bench waiting for reflections and the DVC customer base will grow to accommodate two resorts at least 150k points sales per month. But 300k would hit records I think....

I think they cannibalize eachother if they are in full sales mode on both at the same time

 

[ClemTig]

What would you consider a ton of points left? RIV will easily be at 20-25% sold by the end of Feb. and that will include sales data after having been open just 45 days. With two'ish years of sales before Reflections, I would think it easily gets to 75% sold...

As of the end of January, RIV had sold 1.08 Million of 6.7 Million total declared points, or 16%. Expect less than 150K points for RIV in Feb. I'd have to run the numbers, but it's not looking like it will be sold out before Reflections. But Disney has often had several resorts for sale at once. Not really an issue that I see.

 

[Sandisw]

And this is what we do not know. They may have intended all along that as long as Riv sells out on time, then that is what the plan was and fine. No issues.

But given the revenue DVD gains from DVC, I would be surprised if they would happily take such a hit- as I say, unless sales miraculously turn around the next few months, number of points sold will be double digit down like for like. That simply means lost customers who are not buying. Unless this is all planned by people much cleverer than i, if it was my business i would be spitting that sales are down by double digits, unless as I say, profit is up. And if that is for some reason because of the onboarding of new resorts being too slow and not having two available for longer then I would not be happy with the planning, even if that is because the last resort (Copper Creek) sold out quicker than expected.
I will be very interested to see how it pans out, but as a business, rather than as a resort, the business seems to have a huge plunge in points sold- a pretty important statistic one would think?

So curious. What are your thoughts on the 10 month average being higher and would it play a role for you?


It’s not just CCV but against Poly and VGF.

 

[Wakey]

So curious. What are your thoughts on the 10 month average being higher and would it play a role for you?


It’s not just CCV but against Poly and VGF.

Do you mean the 10 month average is higher just for RIV Sandi? Can you explain your question a bit more and I’ll answer.

 

[wdrl]

I think the monthly sales data tells more about the person trying to interpret the numbers than the numbers say about sales.

No one, well, at least not me, is privy to what Disney is thinking when it comes to sales. VGF sold over 226,000 points in one month in 2013 and a few months later there were rumors that Disney was disappointed in VGF sales.

There are so many variables coming into play that maybe the raw sales numbers are just the tip of the iceberg. Maybe Disney is happy with Riviera selling 181,000 points in December, but disappointed that it hasn't been able to raise the base price to $200 a point with few discounts. Who knows?

There have been times when I thought I was wasting my time compiling the sales data because it was a tiny niche in the DVC universe. But obviously, threads like this one tell me that the data is very entertaining to some of you.

 

[Wakey]

I think the monthly sales data tells more about the person trying to interpret the numbers than the numbers say about sales.

No one, well, at least not me, is privy to what Disney is thinking when it comes to sales. VGF sold over 226,000 points in one month in 2013 and a few months later there were rumors that Disney was disappointed in VGF sales.

There are so many variables coming into play that maybe the raw sales numbers are just the tip of the iceberg. Maybe Disney is happy with Riviera selling 181,000 points in December, but disappointed that it hasn't been able to raise the base price to $200 a point with few discounts. Who knows?

There have been times when I thought I was wasting my time compiling the sales data because it was a tiny niche in the DVC universe. But obviously, threads like this one tell me that the data is very entertaining to some of you.

I always find the data entertaining and thanks for compiling it. Like you say, who knows what they think.

I do however run a business myself that’s a small part of a UK PLC (.5% of the PLC turnover) and we have to show growth in the profits of the business to keep shareholders happy. Riviera itself is selling well, but I’d love to know the figures behind the data in terms of profit growth or reduction , given what you have highlighted in that there has been a big drop off in number of points sold. The business person in me is saying it doesn’t look good, but I can’t be sure.

 

[ClemTig]

No one, well, at least not me, is privy to what Disney is thinking

Yeah, as the years go by I am less and less convinced that I have any idea what they are thinking. But no matter what they do, DVC people still come in droves.

 

[Sandisw]

Do you mean the 10 month average is higher just for RIV Sandi? Can you explain your question a bit more and I’ll answer.

The article stated that the first 10 months average at RIV is slightly higher than the first 10 months average of CCV, Poly and VGF.

Was wondering what your take on this info is!

 

[Wakey]

The article stated that the first 10 months average at RIV is slightly higher than the first 10 months average of CCV, Poly and VGF.

Was wondering what your take on this info is!

Thought that’s what you mean. As I say, RIV has a huge advantage over the others (well certainly CCV, I did not look at Poly) in that the other new resort (in RIVs case CCV) was nearly sold out shortly after RIV went on sale. Whereas CCV for example, even at 8 months after it went on sale, Poly was selling 100,000 points a month.

So RIV should be selling better than CCV at least as there isn’t another resort sucking in huge sales.

So RIV selling well in my opinion may mean very little as we are not possibly comparing like with like.

What we know, is that the sales of DVC in points numbers overall since RIV moved into majority sales position are substantially down. So whilst we may say RIV is selling well (and so it should be given lack of choice) we can’t say if it’s selling as well as they thought it would, and we can say that overall points sold like for like each month thus far are double digit percentage down. Whether there will be a surge in sales that will bring it back up to last years’ points sold remains to be seen, but I seems unlikely.

What we don’t know is what the profit margin is, what the forecasts were, whether sales are in line with the plan. For all I know DVD may be absolutely delighted, but as I say, unless margins have substantially increased I’d expect profits for the DVD division to be down on last year unless sales pick up. Now they may say even if that is the case, that it was all forecast, or in fact it happened because Copper Creek sales were well beyond expectation etc. It may be absolutely nothing to do with people not liking RIV or disliking resale restrictions, it could be because more people buy when there are two different resorts being sold- but I doubt (guessing) that is a huge driver.

But as things stand, points sold down by double digits does not look on the face of it good, and I will be interested to see how it pans out. As I think others have identified, old resorts seem to be selling better- look at SSR in January. With my amateur analysis skills (guesses!) on very limited data, it could mean resale restrictions are driving away buyers.

 

[TexasChick123]

Honestly, I don’t care how it’s selling other than being interested to see how it’s going. Here’s why:

If it’s selling well, then others, like me, are buying into a resort they like. Yay for us.

If it’s selling poorly, then there’s a hope something changes to make it more appealing (i.e. get rid of resale restrictions, offer a fee to qualify resale points, etc).

I always have mixed emotions when I see the sales reports no matter how I interpret the data. Just my $0.02.

 

[Ben E N]

Honestly, I don’t care how it’s selling other than being interested to see how it’s going. Here’s why:

If it’s selling well, then others, like me, are buying into a resort they like. Yay for us.

If it’s selling poorly, then there’s a hope something changes to make it more appealing (i.e. get rid of resale restrictions, offer a fee to qualify resale points, etc).

I always have mixed emotions when I see the sales reports no matter how I interpret the data. Just my $0.02.

Isn't this a fun discussion about how to view data, though? It just furthers the phrase "There are lies, darn lies, and then there are statistics." If you bought in and are happy, great. If I'm happy owning elsewhere, also great. How many other people buy or avoid buying at Riviera does very little to impact either of us.

 

[Sandisw]

Thought that’s what you mean. As I say, RIV has a huge advantage over the others (well certainly CCV, I did not look at Poly) in that the other new resort (in RIVs case CCV) was nearly sold out shortly after RIV went on sale. Whereas CCV for example, even at 8 months after it went on sale, Poly was selling 100,000 points a month.

So RIV should be selling better than CCV at least as there isn’t another resort sucking in huge sales.

So RIV selling well in my opinion may mean very little as we are not possibly comparing like with like.

What we know, is that the sales of DVC in points numbers overall since RIV moved into majority sales position are substantially down. So whilst we may say RIV is selling well (and so it should be given lack of choice) we can’t say if it’s selling as well as they thought it would, and we can say that overall points sold like for like each month thus far are double digit percentage down. Whether there will be a surge in sales that will bring it back up to last years’ points sold remains to be seen, but I seems unlikely.

What we don’t know is what the profit margin is, what the forecasts were, whether sales are in line with the plan. For all I know DVD may be absolutely delighted, but as I say, unless margins have substantially increased I’d expect profits for the DVD division to be down on last year unless sales pick up. Now they may say even if that is the case, that it was all forecast, or in fact it happened because Copper Creek sales were well beyond expectation etc. It may be absolutely nothing to do with people not liking RIV or disliking resale restrictions, it could be because more people buy when there are two different resorts being sold- but I doubt (guessing) that is a huge driver.

But as things stand, points sold down by double digits does not look on the face of it good, and I will be interested to see how it pans out. As I think others have identified, old resorts seem to be selling better- look at SSR in January. With my amateur analysis skills (guesses!) on very limited data, it could mean resale restrictions are driving away buyers.

Thanks! I really wanted your perspective!