Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Eldon32]

What is it with AKVs? Why such increase in demand?

I started looking because I wanted something to look forward to and have been researching DVC for two years only to see both DVC and cash prices increase, and we went there for our honeymoon. We tried other resorts but...they didn't do it for us. It's also a low barrier to entry, even if the dues are a bit higher.

What will be interesting to see as we get closer to Dec when the dues bills come out for next year, as well as learn more about Disney's plan, and the general economic environment - what will happen? In my mind there is a push pull:

Prices will go up:
* People have been stuck in their houses and hopefully things get more under-control in Q4 of next year
* Stimulus money is burning a hole in some pockets

Prices will go down:
* Some people will be unable to afford their dues, or Disney in general
* Some will be unable to rent points, either because of scarce availability, flood of available points for rent, or borrowing restrictions

 

[Sandisw]

They certainly don't appear to match the ROFR thread. BLT looks like low $130's, BWV around $112.

This thread is a very small sample of what is being sold.

 

[Brianstl]

Until the past few months this thread has normally more closely tracked that site’s prices. There are more savvy buyers here, but I don’t know if that really explains such a large spread at some resorts. It doesn’t matter how savvy I am as a buyer if someone else is offering more money.

 

[Dean]

Let me point out that dues are paid on a Calendar Year basis, not a Use Year. Thus one is ALMOST ALWAYS overpaying on the dues for a resale unless they're buying early in the year and or getting both this years points and a lot of banked points. And clearly the "you get the points you pay the dues" is an incorrect position.

 

[sgserenity]

You're right, like this one. I'm pretty sure the buyer would have paid dues on at least 160 of the 2020 points for this one; so normalized it would be $101.42 - still a great deal to get 2018/2019 points. Maybe @sgserenity could key us in


@BigThunderMike paid a bit more, I would say it's a wash on if 2020 dues were paid by the buyer or not - but I'd think 2019 dues were paid by the seller.


@to be tink got a really good deal; they posted later it was from Fidelity so I think the buyer likely paid the 150 points of dues.


I've been looking at AKL so I posted those exclusively. I tagged the people so maybe they will let us know

For the 160 points we paid 93.75/15000$. Seller paid dues on the 123 points of 2018 and 160 points of 2019/ we split the 2020 dues 50/50 with the seller.

 

[Eldon32]

Great deal, congrats!

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I find it funny when people are so surprised at AKV costing >$100pp.
Personal bias alert, but I can't believe that it's not dramatically higher. It must be the sheer size of the resort weighing down on the prices because the place is easily one of the most impressive resorts at WDW (particularly when compared with BWV or BCV which look similar to something I'd be able to rent in Ocean City Maryland).

AKV would be my speculation choice, i.e. the one I could see skyrocketing in price down the line. If only because the prices are now so reasonable and it's easy to picture them advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).

 

[Brianstl]

I find it funny when people are so surprised at AKV costing >$100pp.
Personal bias alert, but I can't believe that it's not dramatically higher. It must be the sheer size of the resort weighing down on the prices because the place is easily one of the most impressive resorts at WDW (particularly when compared with BWV or BCV which look similar to something I'd be able to rent in Ocean City Maryland).

AKV would be my speculation choice, i.e. the one I could see skyrocketing in price down the line. If only because the prices are now so reasonable and it's easy to picture them advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).

Real estate is all about location. BWV and BCV are located where you can walk to two parks . At AKV you have to take a bus to get to any park. That location will always weigh down on AKV’s price.

 

[sethschroeder]

BWV or BCV

Which sit attached to Epcot and within walking distance of HS (both larger draws than AK for average fan). Epcot also has a huge variety of food and festivals which is a large draw to have easy access to going to WDW for 20+ years.

advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).

They are not building on transportation for over 10+ years to AKV and if they do you are talking about a 45-60 mins at least to get to HS or EPCOT (depending where it dumps out first).

AK has to get a refurb/redo in the Dino area first because it once again will be squarely dead last in attendance with HS and Epcot getting all the new rides and refurbs.

Also any skyliner system is going to be built primarily for the benefit of Coronado and All Stars. They might not even continue the line to AKL/AKV since there is little incentive for them to do so. There is a huge difference as well between building a very "cheap" walkway to VGF and MK vs a skyliner.

Also like SSR I don't think you actually want the skyliner to come to AKV because I can see a large increase in MFs as Disney is not going to build the skyliner for free and you just pay upkeep.

Real estate is all about location.

Yup and their big issue is that Disney is never going to invest enough in busses to AKV to really make it a superb service. If they ramped up busses so they had one going every 10 mins it would drastically improve the resort. Lets not forget how spread out the resort is and zero quick service in the DVC building.

Love the resort will stay there again for a couple nights when we go to AK or possibly get in to Club Level.

 

[Dean]

I find it funny when people are so surprised at AKV costing >$100pp.
Personal bias alert, but I can't believe that it's not dramatically higher. It must be the sheer size of the resort weighing down on the prices because the place is easily one of the most impressive resorts at WDW (particularly when compared with BWV or BCV which look similar to something I'd be able to rent in Ocean City Maryland).

AKV would be my speculation choice, i.e. the one I could see skyrocketing in price down the line. If only because the prices are now so reasonable and it's easy to picture them advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).

Doubtful, it's the furthest out for everything but AK and there's no direct access even then. It's also arguably less deluxe than BCV, BWV, BLT, Poly, Riviera and VGF. Same for WL other than it's not quite as far out. It does have the concierge and value rooms but given their availability, I doubt that'll have much effect. I'm actually surprised it's doing as well as it is in price right now.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

I started looking because I wanted something to look forward to and have been researching DVC for two years only to see both DVC and cash prices increase, and we went there for our honeymoon. We tried other resorts but...they didn't do it for us. It's also a low barrier to entry, even if the dues are a bit higher.

What will be interesting to see as we get closer to Dec when the dues bills come out for next year, as well as learn more about Disney's plan, and the general economic environment - what will happen? In my mind there is a push pull:

Prices will go up:
* People have been stuck in their houses and hopefully things get more under-control in Q4 of next year
* Stimulus money is burning a hole in some pockets

Prices will go down:
* Some people will be unable to afford their dues, or Disney in general
* Some will be unable to rent points, either because of scarce availability, flood of available points for rent, or borrowing restrictions

If I had a dime for every time someone regretted waiting for the end of the year for prices to go down... It only takes one message from DVC changing benefits or for a vaccine to come etc.

 

[Aussie RJ]

advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).

I hope I’m wrong, but given Covid, I can’t see any investment in transport options for a long time. Nor should we contemplate updates to Dinoland at AK. Given there is no proven medical answer to this pandemic, public companies will hoard cash and limit spending for a long time to come.

 

[sethschroeder]

public companies will hoard cash and limit spending for a long time to come.

World will have moved on by January 2022. It will either be a usable vaccine has been pushed out or the risk will be there and testing will be prevalent in all these locations with fairly instant turn around.

I do think though transportation build out is on hold for a long time but updates for AK are likely lined up for when Epcot/MK are completed. Now the AK updates could be delayed but they will likely be the first new project outside of building/converting a new DVC resort.

 

[gisele2]

So....where do you think the resale price are headed?

 

[CastAStone]

It must be the sheer size of the resort weighing down on the prices

Total Number of points correlates extremely strongly to resale price. Even moreso if you think of WL as 1 resort.

 

[CastAStone]

They are not building on transportation for over 10+ years to AKV and if they do you are talking about a 45-60 mins at least to get to HS or EPCOT (depending where it dumps out first).

Also any skyliner system is going to be built primarily for the benefit of Coronado and All Stars. They might not even continue the line to AKL/AKV since there is little incentive for them to do so. There is a huge difference as well between building a very "cheap" walkway to VGF and MK vs a skyliner.

Maybe! When you speculate you may want to notate that. Disney surprises us all the time, good and bad.

 

[Aussie RJ]

World will have moved on by January 2022

Hopefully sooner. But let’s put that into perspective. If Disney continues to run its parks at minimum attendance for the next 16 months... in economic terms I’m sure that’s a huge loss of revenue against forecast. Disney has shareholders to answer to. Park investment will be very low.

 

[sethschroeder]

Hopefully sooner. But let’s put that into perspective. If Disney continues to run its parks at minimum attendance for the next 16 months... in economic terms I’m sure that’s a huge loss of revenue against forecast. Disney has shareholders to answer to. Park investment will be very low.

Could say Park investment might be higher to draw people back after the storm has passed as well because parks make up a large portion of their profit/revenue.

 

[davidl81]

Doubtful, it's the furthest out for everything but AK and there's no direct access even then. It's also arguably less deluxe than BCV, BWV, BLT, Poly, Riviera and VGF. Same for WL other than it's not quite as far out. It does have the concierge and value rooms but given their availability, I doubt that'll have much effect. I'm actually surprised it's doing as well as it is in price right now.

I think distance definitely hurts AKV, but overall I find it a more deluxe resort than BCV and BWV (I love those resorts personally but only because of the location). I think Poly/BLT/AKV are on par with each other resort wise with two of them being monorail resorts which outweighs the animals in the savanna.

 

[Dean]

World will have moved on by January 2022. It will either be a usable vaccine has been pushed out or the risk will be there and testing will be prevalent in all these locations with fairly instant turn around.

I do think though transportation build out is on hold for a long time but updates for AK are likely lined up for when Epcot/MK are completed. Now the AK updates could be delayed but they will likely be the first new project outside of building/converting a new DVC resort.

Without a vaccine I doubt it'll be that fast, that's about right with a good vaccine available starting by the first of 2021. Testing won't help that much given the infectivity. With no workable vaccine it's likely that over half the world's population will eventually be infected, more for industrialized nations.