Crowd Outlook

[Minnie1222]

It's not a problem yet. If the forecast stays the way it is it will be a problem. WDW needs guests  dining and at the resorts too.

Are restaurant business, especially table services, really that lucrative?

 

[Jrb1979]

Are restaurant business, especially table services, really that lucrative?

I would imagine a good amount of revenue comes from dining. Look at the price of character meals, I'm sure it makes big bucks for them.

 

[lentesta]

The biggest takeaway to me was UOR was only down 2%. UOR hasn't debuted anything new this year and has all the same weather as Disney (who blamed weather for the bad summer performance). I'm assuming @lentesta 's numbers are accurate I know- but that is a big gap. I don't see what explains consumers leaving Disney faster than UOR beyond pricing and complexity.

I started a thread recently on the resort board discount section about the disappeared holiday hotel offers (D+ and General Public). Disney must feel business is strong enough they don't need those discounts anymore for a good holiday season so maybe a year end surge will turn this all around- or maybe they're desperate to up their hotel operating revenue and sliding back into that Covid era rack rate or don't sell it methodology...

Thank you!

Last year I did an op-ed for the NY Times about Bob Chapek's departure. And I learned a LOT about how major news organizations do fact-checking. For example, the NYT wouldn't accept something as fact if it only appeared in the Disney Parks Blog.

Based on that experience, my guess is that Bloomberg ran that 15% number by Disney and Disney did not object.

 

[wabbott]

Thank you!

Last year I did an op-ed for the NY Times about Bob Chapek's departure. And I learned a LOT about how major news organizations do fact-checking. For example, the NYT wouldn't accept something as fact if it only appeared in the Disney Parks Blog.

Based on that experience, my guess is that Bloomberg ran that 15% number by Disney and Disney did not object.

I read the op-ed that you did last year and posted it here. IMHO, it was one of the best explanations I've ever read of the problems facing Disney parks. You did great!

 

[Brian Noble]

That presumes that Bloomberg uses NYT-level discernment. Maybe.

I can't imagine Disney doing anything beyond "no comment" for specific numbers attached to attendance increases/decreases.

 

[clarker99]

Thank you!

Last year I did an op-ed for the NY Times about Bob Chapek's departure. And I learned a LOT about how major news organizations do fact-checking. For example, the NYT wouldn't accept something as fact if it only appeared in the Disney Parks Blog.

Based on that experience, my guess is that Bloomberg ran that 15% number by Disney and Disney did not object.

Where in the article did it state that they asked Disney for comment or that they declined comment? I don't even care if attendance is up or down but heck of a claim.

The headline is hilarious and then at the end of the article they quote a person saying they felt the money spent was worth it:

'Trowbridge estimates that the experience set his family back $15,000 to $17,000. He knows that seems excessive to a lot of folks.

“Is it something that you value and is it worth it?”
he said. “For some people it’s not. For us, it was.”'

Why wasn't this the headline:

'Disney Family Spends $15-$17K: Had an amazing time and felt it was worth it'

Oh, right. It isn't about anything more than clicks.

 

[lentesta]

Where in the article did it state that they asked Disney for comment or that they declined comment? I don't even care if attendance is up or down but heck of a claim.

For a major news organization like Bloomberg to run that number, their standard practice is to tell Disney what they're going to say and offer a chance to rebut or deny it. And Bloomberg told me that's what they were going to do.

Bloomberg would not quote me, some random guy on the internet, if Disney disputed the number.

 

[clarker99]

For a major news organization like Bloomberg to run that number, their standard practice is to tell Disney what they're going to say and offer a chance to rebut or deny it. And Bloomberg told me that's what they were going to do.

Bloomberg would not quote me, some random guy on the internet, if Disney disputed the number.

Are we playing 'the random guy on the internet' card? C'mon. Bloomberg is asking for your thoughts bc of what you and your business do. And likely bc Disney will not talk to them on the topic. All fine but Disney's non-response means little here.

I guess we will find out some of the picture on the November 8th earnings call. How much is DLR offsetting WDW in attendance?

From the SEC 10-Q's:

Domestic attendance QoQ increase/decrease reported:
Q1FY23 +11%
Q2FY23 +7%
Q3FY23 +1%

 

[Jrb1979]

Are we playing 'the random guy on the internet' card? C'mon. Bloomberg is asking for your thoughts bc of what you and your business do. And likely bc Disney will not talk to them on the topic. All fine but Disney's non-response means little here.

I guess we will find out some of the picture on the November 8th earnings call. How much is DLR offsetting WDW in attendance?

From the SEC 10-Q's:

Domestic attendance QoQ increase/decrease reported:
Q1FY23 +11%
Q2FY23 +7%
Q3FY23 +1%

Why is it so hard to believe it could drop that much? Look at guests reports from the summer and how dead the parks were. Don't forget that interview with Iger and him saying attendance was down due to the heat.

 

[lentesta]

<eh, nevermind.>

 

[clarker99]

Why is it so hard to believe it could drop that much? Look at guests reports from the summer and how dead the parks were. Don't forget that interview with Iger and him saying attendance was down due to the heat.

I don't actually care about the attendance. I do like looking at the data and If WDW is down 15% then we should see a very large negative % reported on the 8th for Q4 for domestic attendance.

 

[wabbott]

I don't actually care about the attendance. I do like looking at the data and If WDW is down 15% then we should see a very large negative % reported on the 8th for Q4 for domestic attendance.

It's almost been one (1) year since Iger was re-hired. Since then, the company's prospects haven't materially improved, and, in fact, have deteriorated. How much more time are you willing to give him?

This is a serious question.

 

[Jrb1979]

I don't actually care about the attendance. I do like looking at the data and If WDW is down 15% then we should see a very large negative % reported on the 8th for Q4 for domestic attendance.

I agree. I bring up these articles for discussion. It's tiresome to have them dismissed more often than not.

 

[Minnie1222]

Why is it so hard to believe it could drop that much? Look at guests reports from the summer and how dead the parks were. Don't forget that interview with Iger and him saying attendance was down due to the heat.

It's hard to believe because we already took 3 trips to Disney this year and never encountered a "dead" park. Our relatives, friends, colleagues, and neighbors also went at various times and they all complained about crowds. We're going one more time this December and may consider taking a break if the size of the crowd is the same as our last trip.

 

[clarker99]

It's almost been one (1) year since Iger was re-hired. Since then, the company's prospects haven't materially improved, and, in fact, have deteriorated. How much more time are you willing to give him?

This is a serious question.

I answered this on another thread:

Post in thread 'DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY'
https://www.disboards.com/threads/dis-shareholders-and-stock-info-only.3881254/post-65096710

 

[wabbott]

I answered this on another thread:

Post in thread 'DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY'
https://www.disboards.com/threads/dis-shareholders-and-stock-info-only.3881254/post-65096710

O1fy24 earnings date will be on or about 2/7/24. A little over 3 months.

 

[Upatnoon]

For a major news organization like Bloomberg to run that number, their standard practice is to tell Disney what they're going to say and offer a chance to rebut or deny it. And Bloomberg told me that's what they were going to do.

Bloomberg would not quote me, some random guy on the internet, if Disney disputed the number.

The reason they reached out to you is because Disney won't talk about attendance.

Bloomburg decided that you are a credible enough source to speak about it. Any fact-checking would be to ensure you are who you say you are and raise any red flags about your credibility.

In the absence of hard data from the source, you look like the next best thing. The 15% number is attributed to you, and that's it. Readers will have to decide for themselves if you are credible enough to speak to it. Because Bloomberg quoted you, it adds to your credibility. Other news organizations may reach out to you. You could be quoted more often.

For stories like this, Bloomberg certainly could reach out to Disney for comment or ask about your 15% number, but the response will be just as it says in the story:

"Disney doesn’t share specific numbers on park attendance."

At these large corporations, the people the reporter would be talking to would not have the attendance information. This is designed to keep proprietary and confidential financial information from leaking out. The flow of information must be controlled.

If the reporter was lucky enough to land an interview with a Disney executive who does have information about it, they could ask, but those executives are well-coached as to what to say. In addition, people from the company media team will likely be there to remind executives what they can and cannot say.

Public companies take great care in the information they release. Billions of dollars are at stake. They have to correctly follow procedures.

Every quarter, Disney reports on its financial performance. Its executives will answer questions, but they set limits. As the story says, earnings didn't meet expectations because of "underperformance," but no specific percentages on a dip in attendance are likely to ever be revealed.

Sometimes companies will say business is "soft" or didn't "meet expectations" or there are "headwinds" or some other corporate-speak.

What really matters is the bottom line and what they are doing to keep revenue and profits growing to satisfy stockholders. Park attendance may go up or down, but the bottom line needs to always be heading in the right direction.

 

[irlandaise]

For stories like this, Bloomberg certainly could reach out to Disney for comment or ask about your 15% number, but the response will be just as it says in the story:

"Disney doesn’t share specific numbers on park attendance."

That's what I thought, which is why everyone always looks to TEA for Disney parks attendance numbers. But then a few postings up in this thread someone quoted attendance changes from Disney's SEC filings. Yes, they were YOY percentage changes, not raw attendance numbers, but one could infer numbers using the TEA starting points and maybe other sources. So what exactly does Disney report?? And how accurate are TEA's data considered to be?

 

[clarker99]

It's hard to believe because we already took 3 trips to Disney this year and never encountered a "dead" park. Our relatives, friends, colleagues, and neighbors also went at various times and they all complained about crowds. We're going one more time this December and may consider taking a break if the size of the crowd is the same as our last trip.

Everything is anecdotal. I had been to WDW 2 times in 2023 and I never experienced slow days either. Both trips were great fun and everything seemed back to normal. I am jealous and wish I had been there during the slower times.

That's what I thought, which is why everyone always looks to TEA for Disney parks attendance numbers. But then a few postings up in this thread someone quoted attendance changes from Disney's SEC filings. Yes, they were YOY percentage changes, not raw attendance numbers, but one could infer numbers using the TEA starting points and maybe other sources. So what exactly does Disney report?? And how accurate are TEA's data considered to be?

From Disney's earnings reports here is how they calculate:
'Attendance is used to analyze volume trends at our theme parks and is based on the number of unique daily entries, i.e. a person visiting multiple theme parks in a single day is counted only once. Our attendance count includes complimentary entries but excludes entries by children under the age of three.'

EDIT: I have no clue how TEA/AECOM calculates.

 

[clarker99]

O1fy24 earnings date will be on or about 2/7/24. A little over 3 months.

And by that Earnings Call… Disney’s rolling 4 Quarter operating income will be approx $2B higher than the last reported quarter and the Direct-to-Consumer division will have likely posted its 1st breakeven quarter. Parks will also have posted record revenue and profit for fiscal year 2023. Also, they will own Hulu outright and have sold Star.