Crowd Outlook

[Jrb1979]

Nov 1 and still no new promos added and the only ticket deal is for kids tickets in Disneyland. If WDW Q2 (Jan-March) bookings are soft, they sure are not dangling any carrots.

Trying to read the tea leaves here with reports from travel agents, touring plans owner/CEO and wide open ADR's and it just doesn't seem like Disney has a problem with softer bookings (assuming they are soft). Maybe they are continuing to see that the less people that go to WDW, the more the people that do go are spending?

If profits were being affected, things would change really fast.

I agree that if profits go down than things will change really fast. I do wonder if some of the reason they haven't added in any other discounts is they are waiting on the Dining Plan coming back and the pre booking of Genie+ to come back in January.

I also think they don't want to pull any more levers right now as it would affect guest spending numbers.

As @wabbott said the best way to fix crowding issues is to have more attractions in each park. Invest in the parks more. I know new attractions are coming but for the most they are replacements.

 

[lentesta]

If profits were being affected, things would change really fast.

Charging for Fastpass+ covers a multitude of sins.

 

[clarker99]

I agree that if profits go down than things will change really fast. I do wonder if some of the reason they haven't added in any other discounts is they are waiting on the Dining Plan coming back and the pre booking of Genie+ to come back in January.

I also think they don't want to pull any more levers right now as it would affect guest spending numbers.

As @wabbott said the best way to fix crowding issues is to have more attractions in each park. Invest in the parks more. I know new attractions are coming but for the most they are replacements.

Nov 9th could be a day to watch. That would be 60 days from Jan 9th. The same day as dining plans return, no park resos and park hopping rules disappear. Nov 9 is also the day after the earnings. I think they were more long term in their outlook but that timing makes some sense. Pure speculation from me here.

 

[clarker99]

Charging for Fastpass+ covers a multitude of sins.

Yeah, but if attendance is down by as much as your data is telling us, then Genie+ sales are down as well (I assume). The bottom line has to be feeling it to some extent.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Yeah, but if attendance is down by as much as your data is telling us, then Genie+ sales are down as well (I assume). The bottom line has to be feeling it to some extent.

weird stuff going on, if softer parks with a higher profit per guests really is the new philosophy they're headed in, that's a real shame.

It's already very expensive, and would be moving into a luxury resort area.

 

[Jrb1979]

Nov 9th could be a day to watch. That would be 60 days from Jan 9th. The same day as dining plans return, no park resos and park hopping rules disappear. Nov 9 is also the day after the earnings. I think they were more long term in their outlook but that timing makes some sense. Pure speculation from me here.

I don't think it's going back to 60 days advance.
My guess is that Genie++ and Ill+ will let you pre-schedule a limited number of rides for length of stay starting 3-10 days before your first day, and all for somewhere between 1.5-3X the cost of Genie+/Ill.

So if G+ costs $30 day-of, you can choose to pay somewhere between $45 and 90 to be able to pre-select some Lightning Lanes.

Just a hunch based on the recent history of how they've run things.

 

[lentesta]

I don't think it's going back to 60 days advance.
My guess is that Genie++ and Ill+ will let you pre-schedule a limited number of rides for length of stay starting 3-10 days before your first day, and all for somewhere between 1.5-3X the cost of Genie+/Ill.

So if G+ costs $30 day-of, you can choose to pay somewhere between $45 and 90 to be able to pre-select some Lightning Lanes.

Just a hunch based on the recent history of how they've run things.

Everything I've heard has been along the lines of:

• 7-day advance booking window for on-site guests
• 3-day advance window for off-site guests and APs
• 3 advance reservations
  • All the parks will have "tiers" of attractions (I think the MK did not have FP+ tiers)
  • Like FP+, you'll be able to select one from the top tier and two from the next tier

I don't know yet how same-day reservations will work. Like, if there's sufficient supply, will you be able to select a second top-tier attraction on the day of your visit, after you've used your first three? I don't know.

I've also not heard of an upcharge for this advance booking on top of the regular G+ cost. It's certainly possible.

 

[Jrb1979]

Everything I've heard has been along the lines of:

• 7-day advance booking window for on-site guests
• 3-day advance window for off-site guests and APs
• 3 advance reservations
  • All the parks will have "tiers" of attractions (I think the MK did not have FP+ tiers)
  • Like FP+, you'll be able to select one from the top tier and two from the next tier

I don't know yet how same-day reservations will work. Like, if there's sufficient supply, will you be able to select a second top-tier attraction on the day of your visit, after you've used your first three? I don't know.

I've also not heard of an upcharge for this advance booking on top of the regular G+ cost. It's certainly possible.

If that's the case might as well get rid of day sales as there won't be much left. It's why they got rid of FP+ in the first place.

 

[clarker99]

Everything I've heard has been along the lines of:

• 7-day advance booking window for on-site guests
• 3-day advance window for off-site guests and APs
• 3 advance reservations
  • All the parks will have "tiers" of attractions (I think the MK did not have FP+ tiers)
  • Like FP+, you'll be able to select one from the top tier and two from the next tier

I don't know yet how same-day reservations will work. Like, if there's sufficient supply, will you be able to select a second top-tier attraction on the day of your visit, after you've used your first three? I don't know.

I've also not heard of an upcharge for this advance booking on top of the regular G+ cost. It's certainly possible.

Lol. Who doesn't want to plan your lightning lanes while on a travel day and/or flying all day? Or I have to wake up and worry about 3 days from now instead of my current park day.

I was way off on how this will work. Prefer the current way tbh.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Lol. Who doesn't want to plan your lightning lanes while on a travel day and/or flying all day? Or I have to wake up and worry about 3 days from now instead of my current park day.

I was way off on how this will work. Prefer the current way tbh.

i mean yeah...id agree.

the amount of planning is too complicated.

ive always said that i want a mix of old paper fast pass, and the old fast pass plus.

 

[Jrb1979]

i mean yeah...id agree.

the amount of planning is too complicated.

ive always said that i want a mix of old paper fast pass, and the old fast pass plus.

Agreed. Why can't they be more like Universal and be simple? I don't want to have spreadsheet of schedules when I am on vacation.

 

[Jrb1979]

If this does happen, good luck if you want more than your 3 LLs per day. Guaranteed they will all be gone when you enter the park

 

[ChipnDale79]

If this does happen, good luck if you want more than your 3 LLs per day. Guaranteed they will all be gone when you enter the park

be a shame to pay that much for it, then only get 3 per day. there will be a lot of complaining if that does happen.

 

[Jrb1979]

@RivShore according to Cedar Fairs 3rd quarter results, attendance was up 1% over last year. Not all parks are down in attendance.

https://www.investorsobserver.com/news/qm-pr/6436604260868896

 

[HokieRaven5]

@RivShore according to Cedar Fairs 3rd quarter results, attendance was up 1% over last year. Not all parks are down in attendance.

https://www.investorsobserver.com/news/qm-pr/6436604260868896

Cedar Fair attendance is down 3% for the year based on their reporting from Q1-3

https://ir.cedarfair.com/news/news-...ports-First-Quarter-2023-Results/default.aspx

https://ir.cedarfair.com/news/news-...Results-and-Provides-July-Performance-Update/

 

[Jrb1979]

Cedar Fair attendance is down 3% for the year based on their reporting from Q1-3

Still better than the 15% that Disney is down.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Still better than the 15% that Disney is down.

Disney for Q1 of calendar 2023 was up 7% Q2 was 1%, Q3 is getting reported next week

 

[RivShore]

@RivShore according to Cedar Fairs 3rd quarter results, attendance was up 1% over last year. Not all parks are down in attendance.

https://www.investorsobserver.com/news/qm-pr/6436604260868896

I thought I had a more recent post with comments from each noting the downtrends but there was this article from the summer that noted all were seeing less attendance and they all blamed it on the classic corporate excuse of weather, just like Iger did...

https://www.disboards.com/threads/dis-shareholders-and-stock-info-only.3881254/post-65014394

 

[RivShore]

Still better than the 15% that Disney is down.

We don't know how accurate the 15% is yet and do you know what the baseline was for that number? Prior quarter, prior year, or ???

 

[Jrb1979]

I thought I had a more recent post with comments from each noting the downtrends but there was this from the summer article that noted all were seeing less attendance and they all blamed it on the classic corporate excuse of weather, just like Iger did...

https://www.disboards.com/threads/dis-shareholders-and-stock-info-only.3881254/post-65014394

To be fair a lot of the northern part of the country has air quality advisories for a lot June and July.

We don't know how accurate the 15% is yet and do you know what the baseline was for that number? Prior quarter, prior year, or ???

According to Len Testa it's prior year