Crowd Outlook

And by that Earnings Call… Disney’s rolling 4 Quarter operating income will be approx $2B higher than the last reported quarter and the Direct-to-Consumer division will have likely posted its 1st breakeven quarter. Parks will also have posted record revenue and profit for fiscal year 2023. Also, they will own Hulu outright and have sold Star.
If that be so, an investor should load up on DIS common stock at the present bargain price.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
NYSE - 81.41+0.73 (+0.87%)
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I stopped getting notifications on this thread and now I must subject you all to my ramblings from the last 4 or 5 pages...LOL


if thats really what they want, its extremely short sighted and will only hurt their business in the long run.
Agreed to some extent but you are missing the flip side of crowds - 4 hour waits for B and C ticket rides hurts your business in the long run too.

A few pages ago people were discussing whether this decrease in attendance was JUST Disney or if other parks were impacted too
Every other major publicly owned theme park operator has reported declining attendance (from revenge travel highs) - every one.

They were saying it when revenge travel was exploding, it’s pretty clear that it was a goal of theirs. And yes, it’s probably short sighted.
Please someone correct me if I'm wrong but the "we want less people in the parks" mantra started well before Covid, all the way back to the implementation of date based tickets. At the quarterly call where they first discussed them, they said surveys showed that people were very frustrated with crowds and long waits and they had to do something to reduce and spread the crowds out or risk losing business.

The biggest takeaway to me was UOR was only down 2%. UOR hasn't debuted anything new this year and has all the same weather as Disney (who blamed weather for the bad summer performance).
Unfortunately, we have incomplete data - most importantly in this question - what is the baseline? Was UO not up as high during revenge travel and therefore dropped only 2% to a similar normalized level as WDW or is there truly that big a difference from the same starting point? And how do AP's play into it - UO was selling them (at some significant discounts) throughout while WDW suspended sales for what, a year or 2, and then increased prices. Point is, way too many variables to properly compare.
I read the op-ed that you did last year and posted it here. IMHO, it was one of the best explanations I've ever read of the problems facing Disney parks. You did great!
Can you post a link to this @wabbott ? Thanks!
 
Agreed to some extent but you are missing the flip side of crowds - 4 hour waits for B and C ticket rides hurts your business in the long run too.
ehhhh..yeah but they didnt have those. they very rarely had 4 hour waits on the brand new A tickets, and even 4 hours was rare.

the fast pass system prior to what they have now solves a lot of those problems
 
ehhhh..yeah but they didnt have those. they very rarely had 4 hour waits on the brand new A tickets, and even 4 hours was rare.

the fast pass system prior to what they have now solves a lot of those problems
As you once very accurately pointed out, with the present system, if attraction lines are minimal, Genie+/LL revenues decline. So there is a financial incentive to keep lines lengthy by whatever means necessary - outages, reduced staffing, running only one side of an attraction, etc. Surely they wouldn't do that, would they?
 
The biggest takeaway to me was UOR was only down 2%.

Comcast Corp. reported lower attendance at Universal Orlando this year and SeaWorld Entertainment Inc., which operates a site in Orlando, said that visits to its 12 parks were down 2% compared to last year.
@gottalovepluto I was trying to figure out this 2% UOR figure you quoted. I am pretty sure the quote was actually that Sea World's attendance is down 2% across its 12 parks and that Comcast only stated lower attendance at UOR and didn't break out a %.
 
As you once very accurately pointed out, with the present system, if attraction lines are minimal, Genie+/LL revenues decline. So there is a financial incentive to keep lines lengthy by whatever means necessary - outages, reduced staffing, running only one side of an attraction, etc. Surely they wouldn't do that, would they?
I can't say definitively if Disney or Universal does this but I 100% saw this at Busch Gardens over the weekend. The park wasn't crowded at all both days I went but they ran less ride vehicles and had less staff. Also more food locations were closed.
 
ehhhh..yeah but they didnt have those. they very rarely had 4 hour waits on the brand new A tickets, and even 4 hours was rare.

the fast pass system prior to what they have now solves a lot of those problems
I mean, I was just exaggerating to make a point, I thought that would have been evident.

To try and make it clearer - my point is that you are saying it is bad business to trim crowds and if that is true, the converse may also be true, that dense, year round crowds could also be a bad business decision because people will get fed up, not want to deal with the crowds and just stop coming. Seems pretty darn logical to me...
 
I mean, I was just exaggerating to make a point, I thought that would have been evident.

To try and make it clearer - my point is that you are saying it is bad business to trim crowds and if that is true, the converse may also be true, that dense, year round crowds could also be a bad business decision because people will get fed up, not want to deal with the crowds and just stop coming. Seems pretty darn logical to me...
Of course there is a very simple solution to this. Increase capacity. Another gate, more attractions, more restaurants. Any business school worth its salt teaches this in Economics 101. Universal Orlando figured it out, surely DIS can.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Epic_Universe
 
Of course there is a very simple solution to this. Increase capacity. Another gate, more attractions, more restaurants. Any business school worth its salt teaches this in Economics 101. Universal Orlando figured it out, surely DIS can.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Epic_Universe
Yep, that is the best of all answers but given Disney's track record of what, half a dozen years to build Tron, I would fear our 45 years of DVC will run out by the time they complete a 5th gate!!!
 
Yep, that is the best of all answers but given Disney's track record of what, half a dozen years to build Tron, I would fear our 45 years of DVC will run out by the time they complete a 5th gate!!!
I agree. Raising prices to push people out isn't the answer either. There is a limit to how many can afford higher prices. IMO they are starting to get to that point.

"According to the (last?) Tues live show - the numbers at WDW are looking bleaker than ever (relatively speaking) with sales (discounts) that are "unheard of" according to John Magi being offered, including steep ticket discounts. These discounts include the Christmas season, and are being offered though much of 2024 already."

Then you add in Len Testa saying attendance is down 15% the outlook isn't good. While I would expect a down turn compared the last few years due to revenge travel, having it drop off this much isn't what I would expect.
 
Yup, looks like they just meant Sea World, confusing wording :scared:

In the post-call transcript for last week's earnings call, it looks like Comcast said UOR attendance was "relatively in line with 2019":

Screenshot from 2023-11-01 10-07-45.png

AECOM says that UOR's two parks had this level of attendance in 2019 and 2022:
  • Universal Studios Florida
    • 2019 10.992MM
    • 2022=10.750MM
  • Islands of Adventure
    • 2019=10.375MM
    • 2022=11.025MM
  • Both parks combined
    • 2019=21.367MM
    • 2022=21.775MM
(Let me know if my math isn't mathing.)

I'm reading "relatively in line with 2019" as "slightly below 2019". Let's say it's 21MM becuse I like big, round numbers (And I cannot lie - you other brothers can't deny). That's a decrease of around 3.5%.

Speaking of UOR, did they raise the price overnight for their cheapest 1-day, 1-park ticket from $109 to $119? It seems like they did.
 
In the post-call transcript for last week's earnings call, it looks like Comcast said UOR attendance was "relatively in line with 2019":

View attachment 806851

AECOM says that UOR's two parks had this level of attendance in 2019 and 2022:
  • Universal Studios Florida
    • 2019 10.992MM
    • 2022=10.750MM
  • Islands of Adventure
    • 2019=10.375MM
    • 2022=11.025MM
  • Both parks combined
    • 2019=21.367MM
    • 2022=21.775MM
(Let me know if my math isn't mathing.)

I'm reading "relatively in line with 2019" as "slightly below 2019". Let's say it's 21MM becuse I like big, round numbers (And I cannot lie - you other brothers can't deny). That's a decrease of around 3.5%.

Speaking of UOR, did they raise the price overnight for their cheapest 1-day, 1-park ticket from $109 to $119? It seems like they did.
Thanks Len! And just FYI, I had pulled out all the parks related comments from that call in our stock thread - https://www.disboards.com/threads/dis-shareholders-and-stock-info-only.3881254/post-65123054
 
In the post-call transcript for last week's earnings call, it looks like Comcast said UOR attendance was "relatively in line with 2019":

View attachment 806851

AECOM says that UOR's two parks had this level of attendance in 2019 and 2022:
  • Universal Studios Florida
    • 2019 10.992MM
    • 2022=10.750MM
  • Islands of Adventure
    • 2019=10.375MM
    • 2022=11.025MM
  • Both parks combined
    • 2019=21.367MM
    • 2022=21.775MM
(Let me know if my math isn't mathing.)

I'm reading "relatively in line with 2019" as "slightly below 2019". Let's say it's 21MM becuse I like big, round numbers (And I cannot lie - you other brothers can't deny). That's a decrease of around 3.5%.

Speaking of UOR, did they raise the price overnight for their cheapest 1-day, 1-park ticket from $109 to $119? It seems like they did.
And the year started out higher than 2022. So the July-Sept quarter must have been way down in Orlando. Just like Disney is expected to report on the 8th.
 
@lentesta, what's your take on the near wide-open availability of advanced dining reservations (ADRs)? Many are saying it has been a while since dining demand has been this low.
 
@lentesta, what's your take on the near wide-open availability of advanced dining reservations (ADRs)? Many are saying it has been a while since dining demand has been this low.

Oooh, good question. A couple of thoughts:

1) We think the return of the dining plan is an indication that future sit-down restaurant demand looked soft. Because if Disney expected those restaurants to be full, they wouldn't otherwise risk selling dining plans to guests who couldn't get their first-choice resetaurants for reservations. (I mean, there's a lot that management will do for revenue. But that creates a park ops problem as well.)

2) The highly-rated places - Boathouse, Boma, Topolino's - are booked during normal dining hours (e.g., 5 pm to 9 pm for dinner). But they're available for times outside of that, like 4 p.m. or 9 p.m., even today for later today. That's somewhat unusual.

3) But not all of them - Raglan Road is wide-open for tonight for any time between 4 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. I think that's moderately unusual, based on the data we have about restaurant reservation demand.

4) I think Disney veterans, who have a general idea about the price-to-value proposition for the second- and third-tier restaurants, are not visiting those as often as before. So Paddlefish, to keep Disney Springs as an example, is also wide open for tonight through 7 p.m.
 
Oooh, good question. A couple of thoughts:

1) We think the return of the dining plan is an indication that future sit-down restaurant demand looked soft. Because if Disney expected those restaurants to be full, they wouldn't otherwise risk selling dining plans to guests who couldn't get their first-choice resetaurants for reservations. (I mean, there's a lot that management will do for revenue. But that creates a park ops problem as well.)

2) The highly-rated places - Boathouse, Boma, Topolino's - are booked during normal dining hours (e.g., 5 pm to 9 pm for dinner). But they're available for times outside of that, like 4 p.m. or 9 p.m., even today for later today. That's somewhat unusual.

3) But not all of them - Raglan Road is wide-open for tonight for any time between 4 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. I think that's moderately unusual, based on the data we have about restaurant reservation demand.

4) I think Disney veterans, who have a general idea about the price-to-value proposition for the second- and third-tier restaurants, are not visiting those as often as before. So Paddlefish, to keep Disney Springs as an example, is also wide open for tonight through 7 p.m.
There was a thread started a couple of weeks ago about the phenomenon. One poster commented that he saw empty tables at two places. I don't recall seeing that, ever.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/tons-of-adrs-for-my-dec-dates-weird.3932357/page-2
 
Nov 1 and still no new promos added and the only ticket deal is for kids tickets in Disneyland. If WDW Q2 (Jan-March) bookings are soft, they sure are not dangling any carrots.

Trying to read the tea leaves here with reports from travel agents, touring plans owner/CEO and wide open ADR's and it just doesn't seem like Disney has a problem with softer bookings (assuming they are soft). Maybe they are continuing to see that the less people that go to WDW, the more the people that do go are spending?

If profits were being affected, things would change really fast.
 

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