Over 3,500 people quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise

[Adventurelawyer]

How does a quarantine work? Person A has the virus. 2 week quarantine. What happens if on day 8 someone else comes down with the virus? Does the clock start again?

This is why everyone is confined to quarters. Testing will continue during the period. Anyone in contact with the newly diagnosed person will remain under surveillance, however, given how transmissible this is, especially in close quarters, that person will probably have it too.

 

[Lisa F]

I saw an article yesterday questioning the numbers put out by the Chinese government. If the numbers the article quoted are correct, it is a much, much worse outbreak and the death rate is much higher. It is scary because it doesn’t appear to be slowing down.

if 10 out of 3500 is the number of infected on a cruise ship, where things spread pretty easily, that is not a super high transmission rate (yet. I think how many people end up with it in a closed environment will be useful information and might be one of the reasonsfor the quarantine.) How many people get the norovirus when there is an outbreak? hundreds, not 10.

I read an article that said that in cities that have good sanitation, clean water and access to medical care, the transmission and death rate is about middling flu level- however in the area where this started, because sanitation is so poor and access to healthcare is nonexistent (also the reason along with consumption of wild animals that novel viruses develop in places like this) transmission and death rate are much higher.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

if 10 out of 3500 is the number of infected on a cruise ship, where things spread pretty easily, that is not a super high transmission rate (yet. I think how many people end up with it in a closed environment will be useful information and might be the real reason for the quarantine.) How many people get the norovirus when there is an outbreak? hundreds, not 10.

I read an article that said that in cities that have good sanitation, clean water and access to medical care, the transmission and death rate is about middling flu level- however in the area where this started, because sanitation is so poor and access to healthcare is nonexistent (also the reason along with consumption of wild animals that novel viruses develop in places like this) transmission and death rate are much higher.

It has actually jumped to 20!

 

[disneyholic family]

It has actually jumped to 20!

yes, i just saw that report.
I was wondering if it was 20 new cases in addition to the first 10, or 20 total.

By the way, given the number of people on board who are running out of their medication, this should be a reminder to everyone to take extra medication when you travel.
I'm a bit extreme, in that when i travel, i always take with me an extra 2 months of my medications , but you should definitely take several weeks worth.

.

 

[jo-jo]

yes, i just saw that report.
I was wondering if it was 20 new cases in addition to the first 10, or 20 total.

By the way, given the number of people on board who are running out of their medication, this should be a reminder to everyone to take extra medication when you travel.
I'm a bit extreme, in that when i travel, i always take with me an extra 2 months of my medications , but you should definitely take several weeks worth.

.

Are you talking when traveling out of the country or on every trip? We couldn't get that much extra meds. We have some that are filled monthly and some every 90 days, If we are day 8 of a cycle, we can't just request an extra month.

We only travel to disney or DD house and take a few extra days. Perhaps if we flew during high weather times (like snow storms), we would take a weeks worth.

 

[gotomu212]

if 10 out of 3500 is the number of infected on a cruise ship, where things spread pretty easily, that is not a super high transmission rate (yet. I think how many people end up with it in a closed environment will be useful information and might be one of the reasonsfor the quarantine.) How many people get the norovirus when there is an outbreak? hundreds, not 10.

I read an article that said that in cities that have good sanitation, clean water and access to medical care, the transmission and death rate is about middling flu level- however in the area where this started, because sanitation is so poor and access to healthcare is nonexistent (also the reason along with consumption of wild animals that novel viruses develop in places like this) transmission and death rate are much higher.

For better or worse the Diamond Princess is going to provide a lot of clues into the spread and behavior of this thing. With a 2-week incubation period, and 20 confirmed cases now we really don’t know how this will end yet (will it stop at these 20 or will we see a spike in the coming week as more people who were in contact with these 20 develop symptoms). Also keep in mind “patient zero” disembarked 12 days ago and since that time 20 new cases have developed. Did some of those people pick it up on the HK stop or from this person? 12 days from 1 to 20 people is actually a huge jump for a new germ, especially since the current infection rate was estimated at 2-3 people.

The other thing that’s different about this in comparison to noro/flu is the hospitalization rate. 20% of cases based on current da require hospital stays and critical care. Even when flu is at it’s worse in a city they don’t have an influx of 1-5 thousand people needing a 2-week hospital stay. That’s the real nightmare in this I think that has governments during everything to prevent the spread.

Wuhan is a city of 11 million and not a rural village, so I’m not sure I buy the poor sanitation/medical access argument. I think it’s a city that was overwhelmed by sheer numbers. Hong Kong, modern in every way, is starting to experience the outbreak, they’ll be another good data point.

 

[Kennywood]

One thing about which I'm curious is what happens to the ship after all the passengers are allowed to disembark? Will the entire ship then have to be cleaned and disinfected? That would be a daunting task and certainly take time to complete.

 

[MrMichaelJames]

One thing about which I'm curious is what happens to the ship after all the passengers are allowed to disembark? Will the entire ship then have to be cleaned and disinfected? That would be a daunting task and certainly take time to complete.

Depends upon how long the virus lives on surfaces but they will more than likely disinfect the entire thing. Or at least they should.

Another thing to note, the people are not being fed the really nice food they are used to. It is cold sandwiches, juices. Nothing extravagant because they have to deliver to each room. Also remember its not just 2 extra weeks at sea. Kids have school, adults have work. They are contained in their rooms, eventually people are going to have to do laundry at the bare minimum. If it were our case we have a dog we are boarding, bills to pay. Missing an extra 2 weeks of work/school is a pretty big deal in our school district. I completely support the quarantine but it has to be a major stress on the people on board not just the ship aspect but back home as well with daily life that is basically home hold for 2 more weeks. The list of compounding problems just grows and grows.

 

[monkeydawn]

Depends upon how long the virus lives on surfaces but they will more than likely disinfect the entire thing. Or at least they should.

Another thing to note, the people are not being fed the really nice food they are used to. It is cold sandwiches, juices. Nothing extravagant because they have to deliver to each room. Also remember its not just 2 extra weeks at sea. Kids have school, adults have work. They are contained in their rooms, eventually people are going to have to do laundry at the bare minimum. If it were our case we have a dog we are boarding, bills to pay. Missing an extra 2 weeks of work/school is a pretty big deal in our school district. I completely support the quarantine but it has to be a major stress on the people on board not just the ship aspect but back home as well with daily life that is basically home hold for 2 more weeks. The list of compounding problems just grows and grows.

One FB post had a passengers daughter contacting the cruise line so that her mom could get bar soap to do her laundry. Apparently this worked.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

The third UK case didn't contact the virus in China but in another Asian Country.

 

[keodark]

Something that wasn't clear to me in the news reports - are those people confined to staterooms for the entirety of the quarantine? Or just until they finish testing all passengers? We are boarding the Wonder in 8 days and while I'm not considering cancelling our trip, I have to consider the possibility of someone asymptomatic boarding the ship and then coming down with symptoms, are we looking at being confined to an Inside stateroom, off the coast of Cozumel or something, for 14 days with a 5 year-old?

 

[disneyholic family]

Are you talking when traveling out of the country or on every trip? We couldn't get that much extra meds. We have some that are filled monthly and some every 90 days, If we are day 8 of a cycle, we can't just request an extra month.

We only travel to disney or DD house and take a few extra days. Perhaps if we flew during high weather times (like snow storms), we would take a weeks worth.

on cruises and out of the country.
domestically, i usually have about 2 weeks worth..
i heard on the news that they've asked people on the ship to tell them what meds they're running out of and it will be supplied free of charge.
But you can't get my medicine in japan. Are they flying in everyone's meds or buying them in japan?

.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

The third UK case didn't contact the virus in China but in another Asian Country.

And that country is Singapore...

 

[disneyholic family]

Something that wasn't clear to me in the news reports - are those people confined to staterooms for the entirety of the quarantine? Or just until they finish testing all passengers? We are boarding the Wonder in 8 days and while I'm not considering cancelling our trip, I have to consider the possibility of someone asymptomatic boarding the ship and then coming down with symptoms, are we looking at being confined to an Inside stateroom, off the coast of Cozumel or something, for 14 days with a 5 year-old?

in the case of the Disney Wonder, you're talking about the US.
I very much doubt, the US would refuse to let a ship full of americans dock.
They might take you to a quarantine facility on land, as they did with the 83 people who were evacuated from wuhan, but not leave you on the ship for 2 weeks.

.

 

[Heather07438]

I saw an article yesterday questioning the numbers put out by the Chinese government. If the numbers the article quoted are correct, it is a much, much worse outbreak and the death rate is much higher. It is scary because it doesn’t appear to be slowing down.

I think the major problem with this virus is that you are contagious before starting to show symptoms.

SARS had a much higher fatality rate but at least patients were contagious only once they had symptoms. That made SARS much easier to confine.

 

[cvjw]

I think the major problem with this virus is that you are contagious before starting to show symptoms.

Yes, and flights from China are still being allowed into the country. They are allowed at the airport in Atlanta, where we live. They showed a story on the local news where they are checking everyone on those planes for fever and then letting them go on about their business.

If they are contagious before showing symptoms or having a fever, they could be spreading the disease in the US.

 

[JARNJ3]

Something that wasn't clear to me in the news reports - are those people confined to staterooms for the entirety of the quarantine? Or just until they finish testing all passengers? We are boarding the Wonder in 8 days and while I'm not considering cancelling our trip, I have to consider the possibility of someone asymptomatic boarding the ship and then coming down with symptoms, are we looking at being confined to an Inside stateroom, off the coast of Cozumel or something, for 14 days with a 5 year-old?

My understanding was that they were literally stuck in their rooms. At least, if you have a verandah, its a change of scenery. Its making me re-think my inside room preference (because of the lower price).

 

[kdogfister]

I think the major problem with this virus is that you are contagious before starting to show symptoms.

SARS had a much higher fatality rate but at least patients were contagious only once they had symptoms. That made SARS much easier to confine.

A couple of thoughts on this coronavirus (2019-NCoV) specifically.

First, it is still not confirmed (as far as I've seen) that 2019-NCoV is transmitted prior to symptoms. The one published report turned out to be unfounded.

Also worth pointing out that death rates from the disease are likely overstated at this point. Especially early on, those with mild symptoms likely didn't report them, meaning only the worst impacted were counted and those individuals were more likely to succumb to the infection. China's history of self-reporting these events is poor, but is further complicated by the fact that they can't report those cases they aren't aware of.

Finally, Coronavirus (SARS, MERS, Common Cold) has historically not been airborne and there is no evidence this version is. Rather, the disease is transmitted via droplet (those droplets may be in the air after a sneeze but the disease is contained within the droplets). Typical deep cleaning procedures (used to combat noro outbreaks) should be sufficient and the risk to future passengers would be minimal unless the procedures themselves are faulty or aren't followed.

Typical precautions to prevent the common cold remain effective against this virus. Wash your hands and avoid touching your face, largely.

 

[Kennywood]

Now, now....don't go getting all rational when we have a good overblown panic going on here!

 

[Adventurelawyer]

A couple of thoughts on this coronavirus (2019-NCoV) specifically.

First, it is still not confirmed (as far as I've seen) that 2019-NCoV is transmitted prior to symptoms. The one published report turned out to be unfounded.

Also worth pointing out that death rates from the disease are likely overstated at this point. Especially early on, those with mild symptoms likely didn't report them, meaning only the worst impacted were counted and those individuals were more likely to succumb to the infection. China's history of self-reporting these events is poor, but is further complicated by the fact that they can't report those cases they aren't aware of.

Finally, Coronavirus (SARS, MERS, Common Cold) has historically not been airborne and there is no evidence this version is. Rather, the disease is transmitted via droplet (those droplets may be in the air after a sneeze but the disease is contained within the droplets). Typical deep cleaning procedures (used to combat noro outbreaks) should be sufficient and the risk to future passengers would be minimal unless the procedures themselves are faulty or aren't followed.

Typical precautions to prevent the common cold remain effective against this virus. Wash your hands and avoid touching your face, largely.

It was also found to (possibly) be transmitted fecal oral, like Noro, but they are still testing the theory. But still, washy washy and use an alcohol based hand sani. (Also potentially crossing the placenta invitro, but with that is still unknown. There are two infected newborns, doing well.

I think a lot of this is media driven fear, but I agree, China has a history of flaming pants and no accountability, so I think until we know more, travel bans and quarantines will and should continue.