Over 3,500 people quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise

[smmco]

1. Even though it is a small number of people who have severe symptoms, in a large population, there will be some exhibiting those bad-place symptoms, and if a person in the US entered a hospital exhibiting those bad symptoms, you can be assured they would likely be tested. The severe symptoms of this bug include fun things like organ failure, and happen on a timescale very different from things like the flu. In other words, a person would become suspicious and be tested.
2. Quarantines are known not to stop the spread of a virus. If this is going to spread, it is going to spread. HOWEVER, as has been mentioned in this thread, and in many other places it slows the spread down which does 2 very effective things in terms of mitigation- first it allows a country's healthcare system to get prepared (in terms of even figuring out how to tread bad cases) and second, it slows the onslaught. One of the biggest issues China is facing right now is too many severely ill people, and not enough things like ventilators. By slowing the spread, it helps to keep this onslaught from happening, and allows more people to be treated.

While the quarantine wont stop the spread of the virus, it will help to mitigate the negative outcomes.

This virus doesn't look any worse or more deadly than the seasonal flu. How are we going to know who to quarantine when 80% of those infected have mild or no symptoms yet they still may be capable of spreading the virus. This is not Ebola or TB that can easily be contained. Lastly, how are you going to quarantine large numbers of people in the US.? Lockdown cities? Marshal Law? FEMA camps? Chinese people are used to doing whatever the government tells them to do. People in this country, not so much and Americans have guns.

 

[QueenElinor]

How are we going to know who to quarantine when 80% of those infected have mild or no symptoms

I just want to say, this is the second time today I've seen this statistic, and it's been misreported. The study showed that among hospitalized patients, 80% had "mild cases". Mild for people who are in the hospital. But they still had pneumonia, that's part of the diagnostic criteria the Chinese use. They literally NEVER diagnose people who are just out walking around with sniffles, because they haven't the resources to do that. All of their attention is focused on the ill.

What the real number of truly mild illness is, no one has any idea.

 

[MarkLT1]

This virus doesn't look any worse or more deadly than the seasonal flu. How are we going to know who to quarantine when 80% of those infected have mild or no symptoms yet they still may be capable of spreading the virus. This is not Ebola or TB that can easily be contained. Lastly, how are you going to quarantine large numbers of people in the US.? Lockdown cities? Marshal Law? FEMA camps? Chinese people are used to doing whatever the government tells them to do. People in this country, not so much and Americans have guns.

So you propose that nothing be done then? Toss the 50+ years of pandemic experience from the CDC and WHO out the window because Americans wont listen to their government and have guns???

The whole point is to slow the entry/spread of the virus in the US, which is exactly what the travel restrictions, and quarantining individuals known to have had high risk of contact is doing. Are people going to get through? Yes. Is it going to spread in the US? Yes. Is delaying the the entry and spread in the US, so that the healthcare system can get ready, and so that other seasonal effects, or even new treatments can be found? I'd argue that it is a pretty darn useful idea (as do thousands of experts who thankfully are shaping the response in the US). The whole point of what is going on now, is that we hopefully don't have to start implementing down the road of all the much more severe scenarios you are proposing.

Or I guess we could do nothing.. or heck, have Coronavirus infection parties, and play out survival of the fittest.

@QueenElinor- I was referring to statements from the WHO the other day, that stated 80% have mild "cold-like" symptoms requiring no hospitalization, 14% end up with pneumonia and other complicating factors, and 3-5% end up needing intensive/critical care. I'll see if I can dig up the article/release I was referring to (it very well could have changed in the meantime)

Edit: a quick quote from coverage of a WHO press conference (still trying to find the original transcript) The original version I read was quite a bit more detailed than this:

The World Health Organization’s Dr. Sylvia Briand told reporters the disease produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of the cases they’ve seen so far. About 15% of the people who have contracted the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care.

 

[o&smom]

Can you give us the exact dates of all of these events, especially when he departs Vietnam?

In two days.

 

[smmco]

So you propose that nothing be done then? Toss the 50+ years of pandemic experience from the CDC and WHO out the window because Americans wont listen to their government and have guns???

The whole point is to slow the entry/spread of the virus in the US, which is exactly what the travel restrictions, and quarantining individuals known to have had high risk of contact is doing. Are people going to get through? Yes. Is it going to spread in the US? Yes. Is delaying the the entry and spread in the US, so that the healthcare system can get ready, and so that other seasonal effects, or even new treatments can be found? I'd argue that it is a pretty darn useful idea (as do thousands of experts who thankfully are shaping the response in the US). The whole point of what is going on now, is that we hopefully don't have to start implementing down the road of all the much more severe scenarios you are proposing.

Or I guess we could do nothing.. or heck, have Coronavirus infection parties, and play out survival of the fittest.

@QueenElinor- I was referring to statements from the WHO the other day, that stated 80% have mild "cold-like" symptoms requiring no hospitalization, 14% end up with pneumonia and other complicating factors, and 3-5% end up needing intensive/critical care. I'll see if I can dig up the article/release I was referring to (it very well could have changed in the meantime)

Edit: a quick quote from coverage of a WHO press conference (still trying to find the original transcript) The original version I read was quite a bit more detailed than this:

We don't quarantine people for the flu. How should we quarantine all these people? Fema camps with armed guards? Drag them out of their houses at gunpoint like they do in China? I don't see that going over very well. The logistics of mass quarantining is more frightening than the virus. Thousands of people die from the flu every year and it's pretty much survival of the fittest. I really don't see a big difference here. Are the hospitals in this country getting ready? I haven't seen any evidence of that.

 

[o&smom]

I think it's clear from my posts in here and in our cruise group that I am far from covid-19 paranoid. However, all it would take to derail your cruise is for someone on his flight to test positive. I am not at all worried about the virus itself but as we have seen with the Diamond Princess and other situations, the decisions being taken have not all been the right ones.

Exactly! Not worried personally about the virus either, but I would hate to impact our trip or the whole ship.

 

[o&smom]

That's a really tough call. It's your dad, you want him to be there for the baptism. Sounds like it's been a while since you've seen him, you probably can't wait to see him yourself. Yet, he's on a plane that stops in Japan...

1. We've got something similar coming up but then for ourselves. We've got a trip planned to Bali, with a layover in Singapore, which like Japan has the numbers rising. We're not going until early June, but we are keeping a close eye on it, and if things don't improve over the next 6-8 weeks, we will cancel our plans because we don't want to risk it.

2. We will be on the WBPC cruise with you and I thank you for considering what's best in this scenario.14 days for a Panama Canal trip is very different than 14 days stuck in quarantine... even if it's on the best ship ever. Now, are you "being way overly cautious to consider not seeing him in the next few days"? I don't think anyone here can tell you what to do, all that every one of us can do is follow our instincts.

I believe the chance to be extremely slim, but with all that is going on you just have to be extra cautious. The possibility is SO slim, but the repercussions could be crazy - and not just for us.

 

[DLgal]

We don't quarantine people for the flu. How should we quarantine all these people? Fema camps with armed guards? Drag them out of their houses at gunpoint like they do in China? I don't see that going over very well. The logistics of mass quarantining is more frightening than the virus. Thousands of people die from the flu every year and it's pretty much survival of the fittest. I really don't see a big difference here. Are the hospitals in this country getting ready? I haven't seen any evidence of that.

Our county health department has a social media presence. Yours probably does too. Ours has been pretty transparent about what they are doing to prepare for this and has been disseminating information and guidelines as they become available. It is a highly populated county in Southern CA with a large number of travelers to and from various countries in Asia. We have had 2 cases so far, both hospitalized and isolated. No others confirmed so far.

They are advising school districts, local hospitals and medical practices. Most medical practices and ERs here have published guidance about calling ahead if you are exhibiting symptoms of this virus so that you can be met and evaluated in a separate location outside the hospital/urgent care center. They have set up portable trailers outside many hospital ERs here. They are definitely "doing something." I suggest you look up your County health department and follow them on social media.

 

[smmco]

Our county health department has a social media presence. Yours probably does too. Ours has been pretty transparent about what they are doing to prepare for this and has been disseminating information and guidelines as they become available. It is a highly populated county in Southern CA with a large number of travelers to and from various countries in Asia. We have had 2 cases so far, both hospitalized and isolated. No others confirmed so far.

They are advising school districts, local hospitals and medical practices. Most medical practices and ERs here have published guidance about calling ahead if you are exhibiting symptoms of this virus so that you can be met and evaluated in a separate location outside the hospital/urgent care center. They have set up portable trailers outside many hospital ERs here. They are definitely "doing something." I suggest you look up your County health department and follow them on social media.

I work for a pretty large health care system. It's been business as usual. There's been very little concern or talk about the Coronavirus. We're overwhelmed with just the normal winter surge. Call ahead if you experience symptoms of the virus? How are the symptoms different than normal influenza A or B. It's not out of the ordinary for trailers to be set up to deal with seasonal flu. This has been a bad flu season. Not as bad as the Flu apocalypse of 2018 as we like to refer to it, but worse than last year which was mild.

 

[DLgal]

I work for a pretty large health care system. It's been business as usual. There's been very little concern or talk about the Coronavirus. We're overwhelmed with just the normal winter surge. Call ahead if you experience symptoms of the virus? How are the symptoms different than normal influenza A or B. It's not out of the ordinary for trailers to be set up to deal with seasonal flu. This has been a bad flu season. Not as bad as the Flu apocalypse of 2018 as we like to refer to it, but worse than last year which was mild.

Have you had cases in your area? We have. Our county is awaiting test results on several potential cases. The guidance right now is primarily people with symptoms who have recently traveled to China OR have close contact with family members who have done so. As mentioned, we have a significant Chinese population, many of whom traveled to China and back around the holidays.

 

[smmco]

Have you had cases in your area? We have. Our county is awaiting test results on several potential cases. The guidance right now is primarily people with symptoms who have recently traveled to China OR have close contact with family members who have done so. As mentioned, we have a significant Chinese population, many of whom traveled to China and back around the holidays.

It's much different when you tell people who have recently traveled to China with symptoms to be checked out vs anyone who has symptoms of the Coronavirus to be checked out as you stated in your original post. In the case of the later everyone with the sniffles would be showing up at ER.

 

[StarGirl11]

It's much different when you tell people who have recently traveled to China with symptoms to be checked out vs anyone who has symptoms of the Coronavirus to be checked out as you stated in your original post. In the case of the later everyone with the sniffles would be showing up at ER.

I cant speak for all of the hospitals in that area but I have three docs at a major university hospital in the same approx area as DLGal lives in. I received my reminder calls yesterday for my Fri appointments and at least with them they were quiet clear to only call if you had or been around someone who had traveled to China within a certain time window to contact the office before proceeding with anything. I would hope that’s what most of the hospitals in the area are recommending.

They made it quiet clear to me at least that if you just have cold/flu symptoms to please pick up a mask. Its where they specified if you had been or knew someone who had been to China that the instructions were different.

 

[QueenElinor]

@QueenElinor- I was referring to statements from the WHO the other day, that stated 80% have mild "cold-like" symptoms requiring no hospitalization, 14% end up with pneumonia and other complicating factors, and 3-5% end up needing intensive/critical care. I'll see if I can dig up the article/release I was referring to (it very well could have changed in the meantime)

Edit: a quick quote from coverage of a WHO press conference (still trying to find the original transcript) The original version I read was quite a bit more detailed than this:

Here is the quote from WHO, from the 17th.

It also appears that COVID-19 is not as deadly as other coronaviruses including SARS and MERS. More than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover. In about 14% of cases the virus causes severe disease including pneumonia and shortness of breath and about 5% of patients have critical diseases including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure.

I know the study this came from, case records of over 70k known or suspected cases. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...break-details-emerge-covid-19-cases-top-70000 The problem here is their definition of mild is different from ours.

The Chinese won't even diagnose you as having COVID19 unless you have:
1). fever, cough and shortness of breath; with
2). pulmonary findings on x-ray or CT scan or a + coronavirus test.

it's part of their diagnostic criteria. They simply don't have the resources to spend on folks with the sniffles.

We don't actually know HOW many truly mild, cold-like cases there are. There seem to be a great many, if the cases we see internationally, especially from the cruise ship and Wuhan evacuations are any guide. In the study, above, 886 were even asymptomatic at the time of their test (these people were tested because their relatives were sick).

This international data is absolutely critical, and I'm sure it is being gathered and analyzed as we speak.

How do we know the virus isn’t already wide spread? We’re not testing for it in the US unless the person came from China.

The CDC has started testing samples that have been collected for flu, looking for coronavirus. It has been a bad flu year, as you've mentioned, loots of people are getting tested. So now they're just randomly testing for coronavirus as well in 5 big cities where coronavirus might be suspected to exist. This will let us know if it's really out there circulating already.

 

[StarGirl11]

And we’ve got 79 new cases on the cruise.

I really really feel like they shouldn’t be letting anyone into a hostel at the moment especially since the test has been shown to throw false negatives in the past. I really feel like they need to restart the quarantine clock. I feel absolutely horrible for those on board (especially since this wasn’t on the passengers) but I don’t think at this point it’s safe for them to be going anywhere now that it’s getting out at just how poor of a job the quarantine was and the fact that there’s still more cases showing up.

ETA: Now seeing it’s probably too late to change anything. I still stand by it was a bad idea to send them to a hostel. But now that they’re free of the quarantine they’re probably going to have a damn hard time tracking some down if they needed to.

 

[Gentry2004]

And we’ve got 79 new cases on the cruise.

I really really feel like they shouldn’t be letting anyone into a hostel at the moment especially since the test has been shown to throw false negatives in the past. I really feel like they need to restart the quarantine clock. I feel absolutely horrible for those on board (especially since this wasn’t on the passengers) but I don’t think at this point it’s safe for them to be going anywhere now that it’s getting out at just how poor of a job the quarantine was and the fact that there’s still more cases showing up.

ETA: Now seeing it’s probably too late to change anything. I still stand by it was a bad idea to send them to a hostel. But now that they’re free of the quarantine they’re probably going to have a damn hard time tracking some down if they needed to.

Yeah I don’t see the point of the last two weeks if they are now just going to let everyone go - infectious or not. What a waste.

 

[DLgal]

It's much different when you tell people who have recently traveled to China with symptoms to be checked out vs anyone who has symptoms of the Coronavirus to be checked out as you stated in your original post. In the case of the later everyone with the sniffles would be showing up at ER.

You're right. I wasn't clear enough the first time around. One of my kids does see an allergist in a building with offices for immunocompromised children (part of the Children's Hospital system here) and they have more strict guidelines, and have asked ALL patients and guardians with ANY upper respiratory symptoms to reschedule their appointments until those symptoms subside. We are also having a run of whooping cough around here, and with the flu as well, it makes sense.

 

[QueenElinor]

You're right. I wasn't clear enough the first time around. One of my kids does see an allergist in a building with offices for immunocompromised children (part of the Children's Hospital system here) and they have more strict guidelines, and have asked ALL patients and guardians with ANY upper respiratory symptoms to reschedule their appointments until those symptoms subside. We are also having a run of whooping cough around here, and with the flu as well, it makes sense.

I'm in kind of a double bind as I take a very long acting (6mo) immunosuppressant and am married to a primary care doctor (doctors seem to have high infection rates). As a matter of fact I should be at the clinic right now getting an infusion, but my doctor canceled it for now. Too many unknowns and what I have is not life-threatening at the moment. But once I take that medicine there is no going back for 6 months and that might be pretty bad timing.

 

[QueenElinor]

I just want to drop by to say that the Chinese have changed their definition of a "case" again. Now they are not counting "confirmed" cases unless they have pneumonia and a +PCR. And they won't report how many +PCR (mild or asymptomatic) cases there are.

So basically all the case counts from China are people with actual pneumonia. It tells us nothing about the spread of the disease.

 

[mmmears]

I just want to drop by to say that the Chinese have changed their definition of a "case" again. Now they are not counting "confirmed" cases unless they have pneumonia and a +PCR. And they won't report how many +PCR (mild or asymptomatic) cases there are.

So basically all the case counts from China are people with actual pneumonia. It tells us nothing about the spread of the disease.

They need to get people back to work and keep that economy moving.

 

[Chrissy-Mickey]

I just want to drop by to say that the Chinese have changed their definition of a "case" again. Now they are not counting "confirmed" cases unless they have pneumonia and a +PCR. And they won't report how many +PCR (mild or asymptomatic) cases there are.

So basically all the case counts from China are people with actual pneumonia. It tells us nothing about the spread of the disease.

That's horrible! Source?