The actual restart date will be....(according to us)...Poll!

[ashleyasiegel]

I picked December but I have been getting a feeling it may be November. We are booked on the November 9th double dip and I have been hoping and praying it gets cancelled the past month. However I have a feeling that it may actually sail now. Probably will end up doing the lift and shift thing but then the cancel penalty follows. I guess we shall what the CDC does at the end of the month and how in person school goes for the next month.

 

[randumb0]

I picked December but I have been getting a feeling it may be November. We are booked on the November 9th double dip and I have been hoping and praying it gets cancelled the past month. However I have a feeling that it may actually sail now. Probably will end up doing the lift and shift thing but then the cancel penalty follows. I guess we shall what the CDC does at the end of the month and how in person school goes for the next month.

November won't happen. We can't even keep all of our schools and universities open due to covid.

 

[Ila Sikorski]

I picked December but I have been getting a feeling it may be November. We are booked on the November 9th double dip and I have been hoping and praying it gets cancelled the past month. However I have a feeling that it may actually sail now. Probably will end up doing the lift and shift thing but then the cancel penalty follows. I guess we shall what the CDC does at the end of the month and how in person school goes for the next month.

Kind of starting to agree, I originally picked January more towards February but it is odd we haven’t seen that next wave of cancellations for November.

 

[Sakura1017]

I picked 2022. Jan/Feb 2021 won't work because it's usually the height of flu season. Since symptoms are similar to Covid, and if Disney isn't going to be screening tests there's no way sailing is going to occur.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

November is unlikely because they are not embarking crew now or even starting callback. November 1 is 51 days away, and i would estimate 60 days from when they start embarking crew (or at least bringing them to a central quarantine location). And they would need time before that to offer contracts and get those CMs moved toward quarantine locations.

Plus, they would need a critical mass of agreement/contract to start moving people.

Honestly, once you add in needing to contract and get people moved, 60 days is tight (assume 28-42 days for quarantines, plus 2 weeks of training). That there is no movement suggests year-end is not likely.

 

[tvguy]

Kind of starting to agree, I originally picked January more towards February but it is odd we haven’t seen that next wave of cancellations for November.

I don't think it's odd at all. DCL has to be swamped with canceled reservations that they have to process. I suspect they want to give their staff time to catch up before having a process another wave of canceled reservations. One cruise line (Australis) has already thrown in the towel and canceled all cruises until September 2021

 

[MomOTwins]

I don't think it's odd at all. DCL has to be swamped with canceled reservations that they have to process. I suspect they want to give their staff time to catch up before having a process another wave of canceled reservations. One cruise line (Australis) has already thrown in the towel and canceled all cruises until September 2021

On the other hand, Disney World reopened when florida numbers were peaking, so that tells you something about Disney’s willingness to take on some risk of contributing to Covid spread. When the CDC gives the okay, I expect we’ll see DCL start some limited operations, just as I expect Disneyland will open when California allows it (and just like the parks in Japan/China did.)

 

[tvguy]

On the other hand, Disney World reopened when florida numbers were peaking, so that tells you something about Disney’s willingness to take on some risk of contributing to Covid spread. When the CDC gives the okay, I expect we’ll see DCL start some limited operations, just as I expect Disneyland will open when California allows it (and just like the parks in Japan/China did.)

Well, Disneyworld is a great example. They have scaled back hours because it isn't working. As for Disneyland, California Governor Newsom on Tuesday said there have been talks about how Disneyland can open, but not when.

EDITED: Just saw two other things that indicate to me that Disneyland is not reopening anytime soon.
1) California Supreme Court yesterday refused to even consider a lawsuit to reopen Orange County Schools this year. Disneyland is in Orange County
2) Los Angeles is recommending no Trick or Treating because it can't be done safely

 

[T & R]

When the CDC gives the okay, I expect we’ll see DCL start some limited operations,

The CDC ban ends in less than 3 weeks. Have we ever made it this close before without them renewing it? I expected them to have renewed it by now if they were going to do it.

 

[Ila Sikorski]

The CDC ban ends in less than 3 weeks. Have we ever made it this close before without them renewing it? I expected them to have renewed it by now if they were going to do it.

AGREED. And I know DCL is breaking cancellations up to soften the blow to CMs handling the rebookings and refunds but this isn't following the pattern we've been seeing. Maybe not a November or December restart but I think something is in the works. More than what we had been seeing previously.

 

[tvguy]

AGREED. And I know DCL is breaking cancellations up to soften the blow to CMs handling the rebookings and refunds but this isn't following the pattern we've been seeing. Maybe not a November or December restart but I think something is in the works. More than what we had been seeing previously.

I guess I have a different view. There are no ports yet willing to accept ships. I think DCL assumes their customers are following the situation and understand that even if CLIA and CDC give the go ahead, their passeners know it isn't realistic to assume operations will resume this year.

 

[MomOTwins]

On the other hand, Disney World reopened when florida numbers were peaking, so that tells you something about Disney’s willingness to take on some risk of contributing to Covid spread. When the CDC gives the okay, I expect we’ll see DCL start some limited operations, just as I expect Disneyland will open when California allows it (and just like the parks in Japan/China did.)

Reduced hours are about reducing cost in the Sept/Oct off season though Not because it “isn’t working”; I would expect DCL to reopen with cost cuts too. Disney execs have said publicly that while WDW not profitable at present, they are losing less money after reopening than they were losing when it was closed, so it is “working” for Disney in that sense.

 

[Snowwhyt]

November is unlikely because they are not embarking crew now or even starting callback. November 1 is 51 days away, and i would estimate 60 days from when they start embarking crew (or at least bringing them to a central quarantine location). And they would need time before that to offer contracts and get those CMs moved toward quarantine locations.

Plus, they would need a critical mass of agreement/contract to start moving people.

Honestly, once you add in needing to contract and get people moved, 60 days is tight (assume 28-42 days for quarantines, plus 2 weeks of training). That there is no movement suggests year-end is not likely.

I’m confused by the 28 to 42 days of quarantine you mention I’m just not sure I get the direction you’re going in that the number is so much larger than 14.
Take confusion aside, do you believe that they could make it if they did a slow restart as other cruise companies are currently doing and instead of four ships for DCL start with two or maybe even one?
I too was thinking there was no way that they could get up and running in less than 60 days for 4 ships because of having to retrain the cruise and all of the transportation logistics. But if previous CM‘s are custom to the travel and previous contracts with the reduction in staff. I think they can squeeze out enough people to cover one ship and quite possibly a second a few days later. I did put down November as the start date but I don’t think all four ships will start. I think all four ships would go in January if they started with one or more ships in November.

Also since all the ports are not going to welcome Americans one or more ships may not have anywhere to sail for several months.

 

[Ila Sikorski]

I’m confused by the 28 to 42 days of quarantine you mention I’m just not sure I get the direction you’re going in that the number is so much larger than 14.

My guess on the 28-42 days is accounting for possible positive test results and having to reset the clock on the 14 day quarantine.....I think, lol.

 

[disneygeek401]

The 28 would mean everyone would do a quarantine before arriving and then upon arrival. Not sure if that is actually what will happen, but that is where I get the 28 number.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I’m confused by the 28 to 42 days of quarantine you mention I’m just not sure I get the direction you’re going in that the number is so much larger than 14.

14 assumes that it is perfect and everyone clears. But even in the major leagues (MLS, NBA, NHL) that didn't occur, particularly with travel-to-site, and I think assuming that 14 days clears everyone brought in without needing a second wave, or that all crew will be brought in at once for a single full wave is likely unrealistic.

For quarantine, everyone needs individual units and cannot be bunked until cleared. So I suspect the most likely operational approach is to staff up (via quarantine) the people required to support a quarantine (quarantined CMs need to-room food delivery and a full galley team, versus the 1-2 people on the idled ships). Then you do 1-3 waves of individual unit quarantine until you achieve the staffing required to support a ship at 50% capacity.

So look at the schedule like this:

• Bring in galley/cleaning staff that can be supported by the skeleton crew already in place through a 14-day quarantine.
• Move them into operations at day 15, minus anyone who doesn't clear, bring in next wave of CMs for quarantine at a higher volume since you now have galley/crew to support for 14 days (cleaning, food, delivery).
• Repeat for a third group to achieve crew level required. I'm assuming quarantine will largely be served in verandah units, because while later a sea-based quarantine may be moved to an inside, without passengers around why lock up your freshly arrived crew in the darkest units on ship?
• 2-4 weeks ship prep and training.

The skeleton crew likely cannot support quarantine for 250+ crew as currently staffed, so that is the first wave.

 

[Snowwhyt]

14 assumes that it is perfect and everyone clears. But even in the major leagues (MLS, NBA, NHL) that didn't occur, particularly with travel-to-site, and I think assuming that 14 days clears everyone brought in without needing a second wave, or that all crew will be brought in at once for a single full wave is likely unrealistic.

For quarantine, everyone needs individual units and cannot be bunked until cleared. So I suspect the most likely operational approach is to staff up (via quarantine) the people required to support a quarantine (quarantined CMs need to-room food delivery and a full galley team, versus the 1-2 people on the idled ships). Then you do 1-3 waves of individual unit quarantine until you achieve the staffing required to support a ship at 50% capacity.

So look at the schedule like this:

• Bring in galley/cleaning staff that can be supported by the skeleton crew already in place through a 14-day quarantine.
• Move them into operations at day 15, minus anyone who doesn't clear, bring in next wave of CMs for quarantine at a higher volume since you now have galley/crew to support for 14 days (cleaning, food, delivery).
• Repeat for a third group to achieve crew level required. I'm assuming quarantine will largely be served in verandah units, because while later a sea-based quarantine may be moved to an inside, without passengers around why lock up your freshly arrived crew in the darkest units on ship?
• 2-4 weeks ship prep and training.

The skeleton crew likely cannot support quarantine for 250+ crew as currently staffed, so that is the first wave.

But if they quarantine the entire crew at a WDW value resort, then after 14 days in quarantine bus the most likely Covid free people to the ship as a group? Wouldn't they be able to move about the ship with weekly or daily testing testing just to be sure?

Maybe everyone from Monday and Tuesday flights goes into the first building first and second floor. Wednesday and Thursday fill up the rest of second floor and third-floor? Keep going till the crew is quarantine for a week along with the bus driver. That would be more quarantine than the passengers coming on the ship would get. The bus takes people from building one, floors one and two on day 14, The next day the rest of second floor and third-floor. Once they’re on the ship after that 14 days they just get the daily testing???

Since I think they will start with only one ship I think it’s a possibility that November could still be an option although unlikely. They have four ships worth of contracts out there that they could offer to start the first ship out.

As to training I can’t see why they would have to bring anybody “new” on board so that type of training wouldn’t be necessary but additional Covid training certainly would need to happen. Disney would certainly want to get our favorite CMS back since they know we’re looking for them as much as we are the ship itself.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

But if they quarantine the entire crew at a WDW value resort, then after 14 days in quarantine bus the most likely Covid free people to the ship as a group?

In this case, they would still need the support staff fo meal prep and delivery. They would either have to pay resorts for them - and resorts wouldn't want to bring folks off furlough for this as it would be temporary - or they would still need their own cleared team.

I suppose they could move the catering teams from the NBA bubble, but some of those folks are needed for the reopening of Coronado and GF.

As to training I can’t see why they would have to bring anybody “new” on board so that type of training wouldn’t be necessary but additional Covid training certainly would need to happen.

Depends on who they can get back, and on what timeline. Many CMs need a visa to get into the US to embark.

 

[MomOTwins]

What exactly is the point of a crew quarantine, since it would only help for the first cruise? The NBA quarantines were designed with a "bubble" in mind. The idea was that after the quarantine, nobody would enter or leave the bubble, preventing infections among players after they enter the bubble. That's not possible for a cruise ship because each new cruise involves hundreds/thousands of new people entering bubble, who may test negative on boarding and then become contagious a day later and infect crew members. So for the cruise lines, the benefit of a quarantine would only last so long as the first day of the first cruise, when the crew would immediately once again be out of quarantine and at risk of catching the disease from guests. Unless you are going to redo the quarantine between every cruise (not gonna happen), there is no reason to do one before the first cruise. All you can do is test to see if crew are negative before first going on the ship, and then keep monitoring for symptoms and doing periodic rapid testing to see if they become positive while on the ship (whether from pre-existing contacts or an onboard infection).

Likewise, travel quarantines made sense when people were coming from places that had widespread outbreaks and going to places that had no virus cases. But they stopped making sense when the virus was already spreading rapidly in the destination. Why quarantine someone arriving in Florida from another country that has lower infection rates, when everyone who is already in Florida is more likely to catch the virus just walking around the grocery store?

And let's be clear, I'm SURE some crew are going to be positive at some point. Just as I'm sure some CMs at the theme parks are coming down with it--just like workers all around the U.S. who are catching it at work. Masks and face shields lower the risk of infection, but don't prevent it. There really is no way to ensure that crew are 100% covid free at all times, whether or not you quarantine.

If cruises resume before there is a widespread vaccine, it'll be cruising at your own risk. That can happen whenever the CDC and Bahamas says it can happen, without a quarantine in advance.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

FWIW, the reason I think they will crew quarantine when re-embarking crew is because it mirrors the guidance that was required to disembark crew. I don't think those Red-Green-Yellow ship status reports are going away.