The actual restart date will be....(according to us)...Poll!

[jane01jp]

We should at least be skeptical of projections that predict major deaths in the next few months (some exceeding what was saw in the spring). I'm not saying it won't happen, but I do think there is an incentive for models to make projections outside of reasonable expectations, since they get the most attention from the media. Neil Ferguson, in the UK, predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. He is now making the rounds predicting massive new deaths. He has a terrible track record - predicting 150 million would die from bird flu, when it turned out to be several hundred. He repeats this pattern over and over anytime a new disease on the horizon. Therefore, I believe skepticism is warranted.

If Europe holds in its current patter, in the U.S., I expect to see spots of significant new cases, but fairly lower death-rates compared to what we saw in the spring. I hope increasing cases don't result in cruise lines pulling back from finding ways to operate.

I agree with you that skepticism is warranted.

The real point of my post was not to agree with the projections, but rather to gently correct the wrong narrative that deaths had been steadily increasing since April (cumulative deaths always increase since people don't un-die) and that the model predicted a peak in January (which is not even included in the interval covered by IHME at the time of the comment).

If people become better grounded in what has actually occurred, maybe it will help them put things into a better context.

 

[T & R]

I think we will be surprised how the media shifts on Covid reporting after early November. There will no longer be a need to over report the Covid fight failures and under report the Covid fight successes or vice versa. I'm concerned the "fear equals ratings" business model will continue and keep pushing out the cruising start date at least for the next few months. Seems like the media constantly has the Diamond Princess news reals handy every time they do a story on the resumption of cruising. Also, most cruise stories continue to use the words "Covid" and "cruise" in the same sentence, falsely equating the two, even though they have no more to do with eachother than any other business. It would be like having Ebola patient news reels handy every time a plane lands here from the Congo region. Makes no sense and is not accurate reporting. Cruising that resumes today will be nothing like what cruising was back in Feb, so the Diamond Princess analogy is just their fear equals ratings tactic. If the media coverage does shift, I am really hopeful the ships get going again after the holidays.

 

[jtntx34]

Here are some thoughts on restarting.

Small cruise lines who do not have deep reserves (some of these we haven’t heard of), will restart early. They must or they will go out of business.

Simultaneously, the cruise giants with several different brands will start up on a small scale with trial runs (seeing this now in Europe). These larger companies can afford some trial and error, but they will start slowly and see what work/doesn’t work and start implementing fleetwide.

Cruislines with deeper reserves, will wait. Cruise lines that doesn’t have multiple brands will wait. They will wait and watch these other cruise lines that are starting up carefully, take notes, and make plans.

I predict Disney will not rush to be first back in the water. They are using their parks as trials much as these larger cruise lines are using their other brands. Disney’s product is very specific, and their cruise experience may suffer more from social distancing protocols than other lines.

Picture keeping small children in kids clubs six feet apart. Picture DCL with NO character interactions. Picture DCL with no deck parties, no fireworks, limited shows. These are all HUGE parts of their product. Although most of the people on these boards are repeat DCL cruisers and may be willing to sail without these hallmark features, Disney still needs to get new cruisers onboard. And for the price they charge, they need those special Disney touches to justify the pricing for most new cruisers.

This is why I think Disney will be one of the last cruise lines to restart in the US, and if they do restart early, it may just be the Dream doing the 3/4 day runs at first. There really are too many factors

I think NCL is an interesting line to watch. They have two smaller upscale brands, but their total fleet is only 28 ships across all brands. They are in the needs to restart sooner than later category, but they don’t have much wiggle room as CCL to do some trial and error runs. They will wait and watch at first, but they will need to jump in fairly quickly, and they rely heavily on US market which is why their CEO is fed up with the CDC restrictions. It is worth watching them and how they restart IMO.

 

[Snowwhyt]

For our November voters

 

[Sherrilatte]

That is the bottom line. Approval to cruise with nowhere to go is no win.

There's always Castaway Cay multiple days. I wouldn't have a problem with that arrangement.

 

[otten]

There's always Castaway Cay multiple days. I wouldn't have a problem with that arrangement.

They can’t go to Castaway if the Bahamas isn’t allowing ships.

 

[tvguy]

They can’t go to Castaway if the Bahamas isn’t allowing ships.

Exactly. And if I understand it correctly, some of the workers commute from Great Abaco Island to work at Castaway Cay when ships are there, So there is the risk of an outbreak spreading to other parts of the Bahamas

 

[Snowwhyt]

So I have had people say they are aware of RC employees being recalled. Any new guesses? Anyone want to change their first answer?

 

[tvguy]

So I have had people say they are aware of RC employees being recalled. Any new guesses? Anyone want to change their first answer?

Nope. My vote stays with Summer of 2021 and with recent events I think I am being overly optimistic. Talks between the cruise industry and the CDC on lifting the no sail order were scrapped due to recent events.

 

[brentm77]

So I have had people say they are aware of RC employees being recalled. Any new guesses? Anyone want to change their first answer?

It looks like RC is genuinely hoping to resume cruising soon. It claims it was planning on sailing at the end of October, but now plans on December 1. If it was doing the slow-cancelation thing only, why state it plans to resume on a specific date? RC's statement:

"Our most recent plan was to resume operation on October 31st, 2020. However, to ensure we have ample time to focus on our healthy return to service initiatives, our global suspension has been extended through November 30th, 2020, with a plan to resume operation on December 1st, 2020."

It seems pretty specific. But maybe it has been this specific about "plans" with each cancelation? I haven't been paying attention.

Also interesting (from another site, that shall not be named):

There is some evidence that Royal Caribbean could be readying Navigator of the Seas for a series of test cruises this fall out of Miami, the first step in the line's resumption of sailing.

The first sign that Royal Caribbean might be gradually starting to re-crew Navigator of the Seas shows up on the
PortMiami vessel movements calendar
, which shows Navigator of the Seas tying up in port from October 15 to October 19, and again from October 24 to 28.

During each stay, the ship will briefly move terminals, first from Terminal A to Terminal D on the evening of October 17; and from Terminal A to Terminal G during the ship's second stay in Miami on the evening of October 26.

Navigator of the Seas then leaves Miami until November 2, 2020 -- which would coincide with the ship's first previously-scheduled sailing to the Bahamas, according to the Royal Caribbean website.

Second, [posters on another site] are beginning to report that friends of theirs who work for Royal Caribbean are getting orders to report to Navigator of the Seas at the end of October.

"My RC friend (in Food and Beveragee) just received travel orders to fly to Miami on 10/25 and report to Navigator on 10/26," writes[a user on another site]

I'm sticking to Jan 1 for DCL, but realize it is a very optimistic date. I think March 2021 would be the very latest. Major lines could genuinely be done for if they must go most/all of next year too. There will be a major push to resume shortly into the new year, if not before.

 

[T & R]

Article with RC CEO stating his optimism is high that they will resume in 2020. They are getting ready and calling back crew. Article says they are going to do test cruises where the crew act as guests.

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/...imism-level-is-very-high-to-sail-in-2020.html

 

[T & R]

Stuff is starting to move. Things are looking a lot more promising than a month ago. Sounded like CDC was on there last renewal with the last ban and they were only able to squeeze out another few weeks worth of ban, I think the endless ban renewals without question are over. With what DCL said to Port of Galveston about getting back out there, DCL's still bookable itineraries in December, the high price of Christmas cruises and that CLIA requires testing for everyone that boards, I'm going with mid to late December. Jan at the latest.

 

[tvguy]

Stuff is starting to move. Things are looking a lot more promising than a month ago. Sounded like CDC was on there last renewal with the last ban and they were only able to squeeze out another few weeks worth of ban, I think the endless ban renewals without question are over. With what DCL said to Port of Galveston about getting back out there, DCL's still bookable itineraries in December, the high price of Christmas cruises and that CLIA requires testing for everyone that boards, I'm going with mid to late December. Jan at the latest.

If cruises resume this year, my prediction is they will be forced to shutdown again by the end of January.

 

[T & R]

If cruises resume this year, my prediction is they will be forced to shutdown again by the end of January.

Which is why we set aside cash to try to get on the first or second one out. Problem is I cannot tell which one is going to be first, so I’m prolly going to have to book last minute which means second seating at MDR and no cabana at CC but still better than nothing.

If a few people have COVID when debarking, I doubt they will shut down, they will just treat it like all the other businesses that people get COVID. From what I’ve seen from the Europeans they didn’t throw in the towel when a few get COVID on a cruise. Cruise lines know their future survival depends on opening right and not hot dogging it, so I think they will be uber safe and do it right. I know DCL will do it right.

 

[tvguy]

Which is why we set aside cash to try to get on the first or second one out. Problem is I cannot tell which one is going to be first, so I’m prolly going to have to book last minute which means second seating at MDR and no cabana at CC but still better than nothing.

If a few people have COVID when debarking, I doubt they will shut down, they will just treat it like all the other businesses that people get COVID. From what I’ve seen from the Europeans they didn’t throw in the towel when a few get COVID on a cruise. Cruise lines know their future survival depends on opening right and not hot dogging it, so I think they will be Uber safe and do it right. I know DCL will do it right.

I wonder how many last minute bookings they will allow? I mean, will they reach covid capacity just with those who are already booked?
And just a personal note, second seating is best. LOL.

 

[T & R]

I wonder how many last minute bookings they will allow? I mean, will they reach covid capacity just with those who are already booked?
And just a personal note, second seating is best. LOL.

Yes, I think once we get to the light at the end of the tunnel and we figure out which cruise is actually going to go, there’s going to be a mad purchase of folks who want to get onboard with all that pent up cruise energy. We’ll be lucky if we can get on but still going to try. Never done 2nd seating at MDR so hopefully we get the chance to try it out. So ready.

 

[pumpkinqueen93]

I'm going for spring or summer of next year. If any earlier then I'm thinking it will be short 3-4 night cruises with 1 or 2 stops at first.

 

[bcwife76]

I'm going for spring or summer of next year. If any earlier then I'm thinking it will be short 3-4 night cruises with 1 or 2 stops at first.

So where does that leave the Wonder? If they start back with short cruises (which I have read in several places) that could cancel out the WBPC crossing in February. Does that mean they would send the Wonder - again empty- through the canal to restart the California/Baja/Mexico cruises before Alaska I wonder?

 

[disneygeek401]

So where does that leave the Wonder? If they start back with short cruises (which I have read in several places) that could cancel out the WBPC crossing in February. Does that mean they would send the Wonder - again empty- through the canal to restart the California/Baja/Mexico cruises before Alaska I wonder?

honestly, who knows. My gut says they will only go thru the Panama Canal (with or without paying guests on board) is if they plan on doing Alaskan sailings this summer. They have to pay PC toll fees or whatever and they aren't gonna want to pay that if they dont have to. The mexican riviera/baja cruises do not seem to be super popular or in high demand, so if they aren't gonna do Alaska, then why send it thru the canal. They could just have it do more cruises from Galveston TX and New Orleans.

But that is just my guess. They aren't gonna want to pay more money then they have to especially since this shutdown could easily last 11 or 12 months.

But, who knows when Canada will allow cruise ships and who knows exactly when the CDC will allow ships to sail, period.

Just my .02. After all, what do I know. Lol.

 

[otten]

So where does that leave the Wonder? If they start back with short cruises (which I have read in several places) that could cancel out the WBPC crossing in February. Does that mean they would send the Wonder - again empty- through the canal to restart the California/Baja/Mexico cruises before Alaska I wonder?

Unless Canada has reopened ports within the next couple of months I would say they probably won’t do the WBPC in 2021. The main reason for bringing the ship to the west coast is Alaska season.