The Running Thread—2023

[Naomeri]

My WTForecast app put today’s weather in terms we can all understand:

 

[camaker]

My WTForecast app put today’s weather in terms we can all understand:
View attachment 787318

This begs the obvious question of how hot and humid does it have to be to be like the inside of a running shoe after a marathon?

 

[Naomeri]

This begs the obvious question of how hot and humid does it have to be to be like the inside of a running shoe after a marathon?

I really don’t want to know

 

[Professor_Cookie]

This begs the obvious question of how hot and humid does it have to be to be like the inside of a running shoe after a marathon?

98 degrees and 78 degree dew point.

 

[Grabnar]

98 degrees and 78 degree dew point.

I see you live in my neighborhood!

 

[Professor_Cookie]

I see you live in my neighborhood!

No sir or ma’am. I live in the Rockies. We had a high of 66 yesterday. Which for business reasons I am not stoked on.

 

[Mr_Incr3dible]

Over the past few weeks, my Telegram app has gone nuts with race availability for nearly all rD races: MW, WND, STS, Princess, etc.
It is as if someone at rD came back from an extended vacation and started updating things.
I know I've asked this before, but I am curious if anyone knows the mechanisms at work.
At first, I thought it might be the charities returning bibs they can't sell, but I think they are stuck with what they've purchased, just like we are. No deferrals, no exchanges. Soooo:
1. Does rD hold back entries from the initial offering? (In other words, is the original "sellout" only 90% of the actual bibs? If so, why?)
2. Are they increasing the number of entries in an attempt to increase park attendance?
3. What is going on when a race opens and closes in seconds (or nano-seconds...)? Just how many bibs are being sold in those cases?
4. How was it that a number of the MW races were open for close to an hour last week?
5. Is this how it goes every year and I've never noticed before, or is this level of activity something new?

I know, I have so many questions.
Thank you in advance for any answers, including wise-acre comments.

 

[GollyGadget]

Over the past few weeks, my Telegram app has gone nuts with race availability for nearly all rD races: MW, WND, STS, Princess, etc.
It is as if someone at rD came back from an extended vacation and started updating things.
I know I've asked this before, but I am curious if anyone knows the mechanisms at work.
At first, I thought it might be the charities returning bibs they can't sell, but I think they are stuck with what they've purchased, just like we are. No deferrals, no exchanges. Soooo:
1. Does rD hold back entries from the initial offering? (In other words, is the original "sellout" only 90% of the actual bibs? If so, why?)
2. Are they increasing the number of entries in an attempt to increase park attendance?
3. What is going on when a race opens and closes in seconds (or nano-seconds...)? Just how many bibs are being sold in those cases?
4. How was it that a number of the MW races were open for close to an hour last week?
5. Is this how it goes every year and I've never noticed before, or is this level of activity something new?

I know, I have so many questions.
Thank you in advance for any answers, including wise-acre comments.

I have no insider information, purely speculation. I suspect for MW that it is #2 - they expanded the field size. Last race season, wdw was still experiencing revenge travel and they didn't need rD to boost attendance. Bookings are down now and rD is one way to get people to visit. 2023 was also still a lot fewer runners than 2018 so there's room to grow. No idea if their intentions are to get back to 2018 levels but I could imagine them seeking a middle ground.


By the numbers:
2018 10K - 12,897 finishers
2023 10K - 11,868 finishers

2018 HM - 20,817 finishers
2023 HM - 15,344 finishers

2018 M - 20,092 finishers
2023 M - 12,694 finishers

 

[Mr_Incr3dible]

I have no insider information, purely speculation. I suspect for MW that it is #2 - they expanded the field size. Last race season, wdw was still experiencing revenge travel and they didn't need rD to boost attendance. Bookings are down now and rD is one way to get people to visit. 2023 was also still a lot fewer runners than 2018 so there's room to grow. No idea if their intentions are to get back to 2018 levels but I could imagine them seeking a middle ground.


By the numbers:
2018 10K - 12,897 finishers
2023 10K - 11,868 finishers

2018 HM - 20,817 finishers
2023 HM - 15,344 finishers

2018 M - 20,092 finishers
2023 M - 12,694 finishers

Goodness. I had no idea the number of finishers had dropped that much. Thank you for the response.

FWIW, had the half on Sat night, but felt pretty decent on Mon afternoon and figured time to get back at it. That lasted for a couple of miles....
So took yesterday off for more recovery and jr high football and will go back out there.
T + D of 88 + 70, so we'll see how it goes.

 

[GuinnessRunner]

Over the past few weeks, my Telegram app has gone nuts with race availability for nearly all rD races: MW, WND, STS, Princess, etc.
It is as if someone at rD came back from an extended vacation and started updating things.
I know I've asked this before, but I am curious if anyone knows the mechanisms at work.
At first, I thought it might be the charities returning bibs they can't sell, but I think they are stuck with what they've purchased, just like we are. No deferrals, no exchanges. Soooo:

No insider info here either, but always happy to speculate. I don't feel like it's much different this year than it is every year. The races always seem to open back up as we go through the fall, although I agree that MW stayed open a little longer last week than I would have expected. They could be adding capacity, but most events like this need those numbers locked in pretty early and if they want to drive attendance they've got lots of other ways to do it like hotel discounts, free dining, etc.

I always suspect they hold back some bibs to make sure that number of bibs sold equals the number they have (buffer stock essentially) given how crappy their real-time IT is and to deal with other things, including charity requests, that can pop up. Once they get the accounting done and realize that what they sold is less than what they had, then they release those remaining bibs in a more controlled way. Because most other large races that sell out (New York, Chicago, etc.) use lottery systems, they have more time and control to make sure they don't oversell.

That would not explain why MW stayed open longer last week, but that could simply be because demand is down ever so slightly from where it was before (as evidenced by races lasting an hour or more now on registration day). Even though it was available for longer than the 5-10 minutes I remember from past re-opens, everything still filled back up pretty quickly and was closed again by the end of the day.

 

[The Expert]

I also wonder how much can be attributed to rD stopping their sale of bibs through travel partners. They are absorbing those registrations into the directly available total. I realize it's been a few years, but that coupled with capping races at smaller capacity could be part of this equation.

 

[camaker]

That would not explain why MW stayed open longer last week, but that could simply be because demand is down ever so slightly from where it was before (as evidenced by races lasting an hour or more now on registration day). Even though it was available for longer than the 5-10 minutes I remember from past re-opens, everything still filled back up pretty quickly and was closed again by the end of the day.

I think it's hard to equate sell out times with demand as long as races are selling out within hours of registration opening. I don't have any hard evidence, but the impression that I got during MW registration this year was that they had tuned the queue system to allow fewer folks in to register simultaneously in order to prevent a major system crash like they had the year before. There may have been just as many people in the queue, but throttling their access to the site would have extended the time for the sell-outs. Now, if subsequent registrations end up taking half a day or more to sell out, then I think we can start to draw some conclusions as to demand.

I'm on the record with the belief that the sell-out rates for the last couple of years were due to an artificial bump in popularity from revenge travel, people taking up running during the pandemic and the anniversary celebration combined with a significantly reduced field size. I think we'll see a gradual return to races being open longer and longer as those special circumstances run their course and field sizes are (hopefully) increased.

 

[PrincessV]

After a decade+ of watching how rD does things, I am entirely convinced ALL rD decisions are made by Magic 8-Ball.

 

[GollyGadget]

They could be adding capacity, but most events like this need those numbers locked in pretty early and if they want to drive attendance they've got lots of other ways to do it like hotel discounts, free dining, etc.

We're still 4+ months away and how much does planning differ for 12k vs 14k runners? I have no idea, just an honest question. Sure, they'll need to order more bibs, shirts, medals, etc. The supply chain is much closer to normal now and I'm guessing most suppliers could support this.

Typing this out also makes me wonder if they pre purchased too many virtual kits and now are turning those into in person. I doubt this is the case, but who knows.

Finally, yes, they could offer discounts but those result in less per guest spending. If they can charge a runner for a race entry and a full price hotel, it seems like the better financial option for them. I realize the races aren't cheap to operate but additional runners are a small incremental cost. They've presumably already covered all their fixed costs with the first round of registrations.

 

[Mr_Incr3dible]

After a decade+ of watching how rD does things, I am entirely convinced ALL rD decisions are made by Magic 8-Ball.

Signs point to yes

 

[Mr_Incr3dible]

We're still 4+ months away and how much does planning differ for 12k vs 14k runners? I have no idea, just an honest question. Sure, they'll need to order more bibs, shirts, medals, etc. The supply chain is much closer to normal now and I'm guessing most suppliers could support this.

Typing this out also makes me wonder if they pre purchased too many virtual kits and now are turning those into in person. I doubt this is the case, but who knows.

Finally, yes, they could offer discounts but those result in less per guest spending. If they can charge a runner for a race entry and a full price hotel, it seems like the better financial option for them. I realize the races aren't cheap to operate but additional runners are a small incremental cost. They've presumably already covered all their fixed costs with the first round of registrations.

All good points. I'm always curious about business cases.

 

[jrsharp21]

Needing to start planning out shoes for MW. I usually run in Asics Novablast 2. I haven't been able to find any good deals on them and the Novablast 3 are still full price everywhere. For that price point, I was thinking about trying out an older version of Nike Alphafly or Nike Vaporfly. Anyone have any opinions between the two shoes?

 

[michigandergirl]

Needing to start planning out shoes for MW. I usually run in Asics Novablast 2. I haven't been able to find any good deals on them and the Novablast 3 are still full price everywhere. For that price point, I was thinking about trying out an older version of Nike Alphafly or Nike Vaporfly. Anyone have any opinions between the two shoes?

While I don't have any experience with the Nike shoes, I will say that I'm enjoying the Novablast 3's even more than the 2's and I would certainly pay full price for them over trying a new shoe.

 

[jrsharp21]

While I don't have any experience with the Nike shoes, I will say that I'm enjoying the Novablast 3's even more than the 2's and I would certainly pay full price for them over trying a new shoe.

Thanks for the info. I am definitely hesitant to move away from the Novablast line. I have had four pair of the Novablast 2 over the past year and a half and they have been my favorite shoes by far. I have always wanted to try the Alphafly, so just wondering if now is the time before we get closer to MW. If they didn't work out, at least I would have time to shift back.

 

[GuinnessRunner]

We're still 4+ months away and how much does planning differ for 12k vs 14k runners? I have no idea, just an honest question. Sure, they'll need to order more bibs, shirts, medals, etc. The supply chain is much closer to normal now and I'm guessing most suppliers could support this.

100% correct from a practical standpoint. But having worked for larger corporations, it is never as easy as it should be. Event budgets are set a year in advance (most of the time) and changes have to run through multiple departments (FP&A so they track the budget and approve the overage spend compared to the originally approved budget for each component of the race; procurement to order more product; logistics to make sure it doesn't change # of buses needed and if it does, securing those additional busses and drivers, plus more hotel rooms for any additional out of area/state drivers they use; resort operations; safety; etc.). All of these same groups are handling the same stuff for the rest of the resort and parks too, so you're asking them to have to go back and revisit things they might have already planned for and moved on to their next job. So while you're right that it could be done fairly easy if just one person/group handled it all, the bureaucracy that comes from large organizations like Disney makes the effort involved in making sure all impacted groups know the change and are accommodating it, sadly not worth the return they get from the relatively small change.

Complete speculation on my part though and I admit I might be totally wrong!