When Will the US Reach 100,000 COVID deaths?

[RamblingMad]

Yes, hindsite is 20/20, isn't it? I feel like half the country could have remained open and then like now AZ clamps down. But getting people to lock back down is going to be really hard. It will have to get bad before they will. But that is a view from a Monday Morning quarterback. Even I felt like we should be locked tight at the beginning. We just didn't know what we didn't know.

I don't know. I have to go through my post history. I'm sure I had an opinion on us shutting down.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Yes, hindsite is 20/20, isn't it? I feel like half the country could have remained open and then like now AZ clamps down. But getting people to lock back down is going to be really hard. It will have to get bad before they will. But that is a view from a Monday Morning quarterback. Even I felt like we should be locked tight at the beginning. We just didn't know what we didn't know.

I tend to agree with you. And there had been a theory I read months ago that it would start on the coasts, roll inland until it bounced back out. So while I think CA shut down at exactly the right time (wish we had mandated masks state wide prior to today), I don’t know that it was the right decision across the board.

 

[mom2rtk]

Yep. There is no way we lock down again, so we get to experience the equivalent of NY in our hospitals. Good times in our future.

I remain optimistic that we know more about the virus now and how it spreads (compared with the early days in NY). While we won't have full scale lockdowns if the numbers spike, I do think you'll have more voluntary compliance with recommendations as numbers go up. I also have hope that the treatments they have been researching will help keep the fatality rates lower.

I am getting some of my delayed health care items done now though, in case my access is limited again.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

I'm not buying the nation shut down too early because of New York argument. The fact is, several states closed down before New York, not in response to New York including the largest state in population. And the virus didn't gain speed in many of these states precisely because they shut down on time. New York, on the other hand, did not mainly because the governor wanted to show New York City who was in charge rather than letting them shut down like they needed to In all nearly a week was wasted. That's in addition to the two weeks the mayor and governor wasted before that. And the bad decision making didn't end there. Further, moving covid patients into long term care facilities was complete idiocy. New York wasn't just unlucky. The deaths there didn't occur just at random. The deaths there are the results of bad decisions made there that other states didn't make. Other states got themselves into stay at home on time. New York did not.

Nor am I buying that shut downs caused complacency and thus the idiotic behavior we're seeing in all too many cases. The same type of moronic behavior was present before states even shut down just as it is now. To blame early shut downs for the stupid behavior occurring now is to argue that a later shut down would fix stupid. And you can't fix stupid.
Further, many states that opened first and are opening faster are the very same states that were last to shut down, not the first. It was a political decision made by the powers that be in certain states that they were going to open up come Hades or high water and not shut down again, a decision that had absolutely nothing to do with when the state shut down. And it had nothing to do with anything happening on the ground. And they were going to accept whatever deaths resulted. Of course if the deaths start to pile up, we'll see if that come Hades or high water attitude holds or not.

 

[mom2rtk]

I'm not buying the nation shut down too early because of New York argument. The fact is, several states closed down before New York, not in response to New York including the largest state in population. And the virus didn't gain speed in many of these states precisely because they shut down on time. New York, on the other hand, did not mainly because the governor wanted to show New York City who was in charge rather than letting them shut down like they needed to In all nearly a week was wasted. That's in addition to the two weeks the mayor and governor wasted before that. And the bad decision making didn't end there. Further, moving covid patients into long term care facilities was complete idiocy. New York wasn't just unlucky. The deaths there didn't occur just at random. The deaths there are the results of bad decisions made there that other states didn't make. Other states got themselves into stay at home on time. New York did not.

Nor am I buying that shut downs caused complacency and thus the idiotic behavior we're seeing in all too many cases. The same type of moronic behavior was present before states even shut down just as it is now. To blame early shut downs for the stupid behavior occurring now is to argue that a later shut down would fix stupid. And you can't fix stupid.
Further, many states that opened first and are opening faster are the very same states that were last to shut down, not the first. It was a political decision made by the powers that be in certain states that they were going to open up come Hades or high water and not shut down again, a decision that had absolutely nothing to do with when the state shut down. And it had nothing to do with anything happening on the ground. And they were going to accept whatever deaths resulted. Of course if the deaths start to pile up, we'll see if that come Hades or high water attitude holds or not.

I don't blame the NY shutdown (since I believe they waited too long to close). It's more like I blame the high NY numbers.

 

[choirfarm]

nm

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I'm not buying the nation shut down too early because of New York argument. The fact is, several states closed down before New York, not in response to New York including the largest state in population. And the virus didn't gain speed in many of these states precisely because they shut down on time. New York, on the other hand, did not mainly because the governor wanted to show New York City who was in charge rather than letting them shut down like they needed to In all nearly a week was wasted. That's in addition to the two weeks the mayor and governor wasted before that. And the bad decision making didn't end there. Further, moving covid patients into long term care facilities was complete idiocy. New York wasn't just unlucky. The deaths there didn't occur just at random. The deaths there are the results of bad decisions made there that other states didn't make. Other states got themselves into stay at home on time. New York did not.

Nor am I buying that shut downs caused complacency and thus the idiotic behavior we're seeing in all too many cases. The same type of moronic behavior was present before states even shut down just as it is now. To blame early shut downs for the stupid behavior occurring now is to argue that a later shut down would fix stupid. And you can't fix stupid.
Further, many states that opened first and are opening faster are the very same states that were last to shut down, not the first. It was a political decision made by the powers that be in certain states that they were going to open up come Hades or high water and not shut down again, a decision that had absolutely nothing to do with when the state shut down. And it had nothing to do with anything happening on the ground. And they were going to accept whatever deaths resulted. Of course if the deaths start to pile up, we'll see if that come Hades or high water attitude holds or not.

I completely agree with you that it wasn't because of NY, since the west coast shut down before them - and everybody laughed at Newsom (CA) doing it when he did. And I 100% agree that NY's numbers are a result of their elected officials. They really need to stop passing the buck on that one and patting themselves on the back now. And yes, those last to shut down were also the first to open up - and for the most part did the pseudo shut down; not nearly as strict as other states.

I think it'll be hard to tell if some states shut down too early but I think it's possible. I think for many of them who didn't have many cases, it could be. And I do know it affects complacency because I see it in my own community where people don't feel our numbers warrant our rules, so they don't listen to any of them. But I could also see that it stems more from opening too early and without enough precautions in place. But as I agreed with earlier, hindsight is 20/20.

 

[Planogirl]

It wasn't only New York. They were just the worst. New Jersey and some other states looked bad as did pockets in some states including Texas. I didn't see anything wrong with a lockdown in Texas due to those pockets but it was half-hearted and things opened up probably too fast.

 

[shelemm]

I tend to agree with you. And there had been a theory I read months ago that it would start on the coasts, roll inland until it bounced back out. So while I think CA shut down at exactly the right time (wish we had mandated masks state wide prior to today), I don’t know that it was the right decision across the board.

It's not easy for governors to know what to do. You want to take action before the problem gets out of hand or it could be too late. Places that waited in Europe paid for it heavily. So acting with caution was probably always a good idea, even if a state didn't have many cases. It's nice to get lucky and doge a bullet, but you can't rely on that.

For states that were more heavily exposed, wearing face masks (especially indoors) has helped a great deal.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

It's not easy for governors to know what to do. You want to take action before the problem gets out of hand or it could be too late. Places that waited in Europe paid for it heavily. So acting with caution was probably always a good idea, even if a state didn't have many cases. It's nice to get lucky and doge a bullet, but you can't rely on that.

For states that were more heavily exposed, wearing face masks (especially indoors) has helped a great deal.

I agree. It’s why I agreed that hindsight is 20/20. It would have been nice if people hadn’t made fun of Ca’s Gov. even though he absolutely made the right call. And I think NY waited too long and it shows in their numbers. Two different choices over the course of a weekend with two very different outcomes.

It’s too bad that masks weren’t made a national mandate because we could have an entirely different situation on our hands now.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

That's been my thought all along. I'm in Missouri. We don't have a spike yet but I won't be shocked if we do. I said at the time they locked down that it was too early. That they'll likely only get one shot at a solid shutdown and I thought they played that card too soon here.

The governor of MO isn't really interested in another lockdown either and I believe Mayor Lucus said the same. Guess we'll see if that brings true later on. No word on my side of the metro about a finality in one way or another regarding a future lockdown, yet at least.

 

[WillAustin]

Anything under 2 million deaths might be considered a positive result based on the initial models. I'm not sure that the numbers would be much different no matter what lockdowns were in place. It's certainly worth thinking about. There isn't a right or wrong number.

Any lockdown now would cause protests and defiance. Probably not unjustified.

 

[shelemm]

Anything under 2 million deaths might be considered a positive result based on the initial models. I'm not sure that the numbers would be much different no matter what lockdowns were in place. It's certainly worth thinking about. There isn't a right or wrong number.

Any lockdown now would cause protests and defiance. Probably not unjustified.

I think it's important to stick with facts, not arguments. I can't say I know how people will react after being presented with facts. All I can say is that sticking to the facts is the honorable and right thing to do. If we have to use conjecture, let it be based on the science.

 

[RamblingMad]

I think it's important to stick with facts, not arguments. I can't say I know how people will react after being presented with facts. All I can say is that sticking to the facts is the honorable and right thing to do. If we have to use conjecture, let it be based on the science.

That’s really hard for emotional folks to handle. The news shows are really good at twisting facts to fit their agenda, which seems to be to get folks all worked up.

Also, science changes overtime. This is hard for people to deal with too.

 

[hsmamato2]

Yes, hindsite is 20/20, isn't it? I feel like half the country could have remained open and then like now AZ clamps down. But getting people to lock back down is going to be really hard. It will have to get bad before they will. But that is a view from a Monday Morning quarterback. Even I felt like we should be locked tight at the beginning. We just didn't know what we didn't know.

I don't think there was a nationwide lockdown at that time.... I believe if that were true, we wouldn't be seeing what we're seeing now. For far too long many of the lesser hit states insisted this was a regional problem, that the lockdown measures didn't really apply to their area,bc they weren't getting slammed (at that time) I'm thinking of spring break in FL, open beaches,tourist destinations not closing until much later than other parts of the country, states where folks are insisting that wearing a mask or social distancing didn't apply to them....and much more. I personally live in the original 'hot zone' so SMH daily at what I'm seeing/reading.
IF there truly had been a nationwide lockdown,and clear concise rules for limiting the exposure for this thing, it would have had a much smaller impact overall.
How much sense did it make for instance, to close one state completely and the state next to it basically open for parties?
I'm saddened but I agree with PP,I think we'll hit 200k sooner than October.

 

[hsmamato2]

It’s too bad that masks weren’t made a national mandate because we could have an entirely different situation on our hands now.

This is part of what I said.... by allowing each state to sort of mull things over and decide what to keep open,etc...that endangered everyone living here. If I live in the epicenter (a few weeks back) of New York state,and decide to go for a little car ride over to Philly,just bc I'm bored.... bc everything in my county is locked down- how does that really protect anyone? A national safety mandate for a country,now that might have helped our death toll numbers...but again, living in the 'hot zone',it would be REALLY easy for me to wander off somewhere nearby with less strict safety rules in place.... (I don't live in that NY county, just an example-I live elsewhere in these areas)
If I can mix and mingle as I please, hop on a plane and fly elsewhere,drive in my car to a better party, then safety is obviously not high on my priority list.

 

[choirfarm]

So it is August 1st and the number is over 154,000. Some people never thought it would be that way. Yet people will not change their behavior. That has taken less than 6 months. Which means at least 300,000 people are going to die by the time we hit the year anniversary. That is crazy to me. Yet we still crowd bars and think we shouldn't have to wear masks... I just do not understand.

 

[Dan Murphy]

August 1st and the number is over 154,000.

157,855

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

So it is August 1st and the number is over 154,000. Some people never thought it would be that way. Yet people will not change their behavior. That has taken less than 6 months. Which means at least 300,000 people are going to die by the time we hit the year anniversary. That is crazy to me. Yet we still crowd bars and think we shouldn't have to wear masks... I just do not understand.

Hopefully treatment and prevention methods have progressed enough that the death rate will be lower going forward. 5 months ago people looked at you crazy for wearing a mask and today it's pretty much normal.

 

[choirfarm]

. 5 months ago people looked at you crazy for wearing a mask and today it's pretty much normal.

No, they still look at me as if I am crazy. At church no one wears one. I am one of 3 people who wears mine the entire service. We had to go out of town to move a child to a neighboring state. EVERYONE wore masks EVERYWHERE. I could tell we were back home when we stopped for gas in our city to fill it up before we went home and no one was wearing one. Yeah, it's why we are a hot spot right now. Sigh.